Poll Watch: PPP (D) Iowa 2012 Republican Caucus Survey

PPP (D) Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Survey

• Mike Huckabee 30% [30%] (27%)
• Mitt Romney 18% [18%] (15%)
• Newt Gingrich 12% [13%] (16%)
• Sarah Palin 12% [15%] (17%)
• Tim Pawlenty 7% [4%]
• Michele Bachmann 6%
• Ron Paul 6% [6%] (7%)
• Someone Else/Undecided 10% [10%]

If the Republican candidates for President in 2012 were Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Donald Trump, who would you vote for?

• Mike Huckabee 27%
• Mitt Romney 16%
• Donald Trump 14%
• Newt Gingrich 9%
• Sarah Palin 8%
• Michele Bachmann 6%
• Ron Paul 6%
• Tim Pawlenty 5%
• Someone Else/Undecided 9%

What if neither Mike Huckabee nor Donald Trump ran and the candidates for President in 2012 were just Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

• Mitt Romney 25%
• Newt Gingrich 15%
• Ron Paul 15%
• Sarah Palin 15%
• Michele Bachmann 10%
• Tim Pawlenty 9%
• Someone Else/Undecided 11%

What if Mike Huckabee did run but neither Sarah Palin nor Donald Trump did and the candidates for President in 2012 were just Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

• Mike Huckabee 33%
• Mitt Romney 20%
• Newt Gingrich 13%
• Michele Bachmann 10%
• Ron Paul 9%
• Tim Pawlenty 5%
• Someone Else/Undecided 10%

What if neither Mike Huckabee, nor Sarah Palin, nor Donald Trump ran for President and the candidates were just Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

• Mitt Romney 28%
• Newt Gingrich 19%
• Ron Paul 16%
• Michele Bachmann 15%
• Tim Pawlenty 9%
• Someone Else/Undecided 12%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mike Huckabee 68% [72%] / 19% [16%] {+49%}
• Ron Paul 55% [47%] / 17% [23%] {+38%}
• Michele Bachmann 49% / 13% {+36%}
• Tim Pawlenty 41% [34%] / 9% [12%] {+32%}
• Mitt Romney 55% [57%] / 25% [26%] {+30%}
• Sarah Palin 58% [60%] / 29% [29%] {+29%}
• Rudy Giuliani 48% [49%] / 25% [30%] {+23%}
• Newt Gingrich 47% [53%] / 26% [27%] {+21%}
• Rick Santorum 27% [28%] / 11% [9%] {+16%}
• Haley Barbour 21% [22%] / 14% [14%] {+7%}
• Mitch Daniels 13% [11%] / 7% [11%] {+6%}
• Herman Cain 15% / 9% {+6%}
• Donald Trump 41% / 40% {+1%}
• Jon Huntsman 5% / 8% {-3%}
• Gary Johnson 2% / 8% {-6%}
• Buddy Roemer 2% / 10% {-8%}

Among Very Conservative Republicans

• Michele Bachmann 66% / 6% {+60%}
• Mike Huckabee 75% / 17% {+58%}
• Ron Paul 63% / 12% {+51%}
• Tim Pawlenty 53% / 4% {+49%}
• Sarah Palin 67% / 22% {+45%}
• Newt Gingrich 56% / 20% {+36%}
• Rick Santorum 41% / 5% {+36%}
• Mitt Romney 52% / 26% {+26%}
• Rudy Giuliani 43% / 25% {+18%}
• Herman Cain 23% / 5% {+18%}
• Mitch Daniels 14% / 5% {+9%}
• Haley Barbour 23% / 15% {+8%}
• Donald Trump 43% / 37% {+6%}
• Jon Huntsman 7% / 4% {+3%}
• Gary Johnson 1% / 4% {-3%}
• Buddy Roemer 1% / 7% {-6%}

Among Somewhat Conservative Republicans

• Mike Huckabee 75% / 12% {+63%}
• Mitt Romney 59% / 23% {+36%}
• Sarah Palin 60% / 26% {+34%}
• Michele Bachmann 42% / 10% {+32%}
• Tim Pawlenty 41% / 10% {+31%}
• Ron Paul 48% / 19% {+29%}
• Rudy Giuliani 50% / 25% {+25%}
• Newt Gingrich 47% / 23% {+24%}
• Haley Barbour 21% / 9% {+12%}
• Mitch Daniels 15% / 6% {+9%}
• Donald Trump 44% / 37% {+7%}
• Rick Santorum 20% / 13% {+7%}
• Herman Cain 11% / 8% {+3%}
• Jon Huntsman 4% / 9% {-5%}
• Gary Johnson 2% / 8% {-9%}
• Buddy Roemer 2% / 8% {-6%}

Among Moderate Republicans

• Mitt Romney 59% [56%] / 26% [28%] {+33%}
• Rudy Giuliani 55% [49%] / 24% [31%] {+31%}
• Ron Paul 51% [38%] / 25% [35%] {+26%}
• Mike Huckabee 48% [62%] / 33% [24%] {+15%}
• Michele Bachmann 30% / 29% {+1%}
• Tim Pawlenty 21% [30%] / 21% [23%] {0%}
• Haley Barbour 17% [11%] / 18% [23%] {-1%}
• Mitch Daniels 8% [8%] / 14% [22%] {-6%}
• Rick Santorum 12% [17%] / 19% [21%] {-7%}
• Jon Huntsman 5% / 13% {-8%}
• Buddy Roemer 6% / 14% {-8%}
• Gary Johnson 2% / 11% {-9%}
• Sarah Palin 39% [41%] / 50% [53%] {-11%}
• Newt Gingrich 29% [30%] / 44% [49%] {-15%}
• Herman Cain 4% / 20% {-16%}
• Donald Trump 34% / 52% {-18%}

Among Men

• Mike Huckabee 72% [74%] / 22% [18%] {+50%}
• Ron Paul 59% [52%] / 18% [23%] {+41%}
• Michele Bachmann 53% / 15% {+38%}
• Sarah Palin 64% [62%] / 27% [27%] {+37%}
• Tim Pawlenty 46% [35%] / 13% [15%] {+33%}
• Mitt Romney 58% [57%] / 28% [29%] {+30%}
• Newt Gingrich 53% [59%] / 25% [30%] {+28%}
• Rudy Giuliani 46% [52%] / 29% [31%] {+17%}
• Rick Santorum 32% [30%] / 16% [11%] {+16%}
• Haley Barbour 28% [26%] / 17% [15%] {+11%}
• Mitch Daniels 16% [15%] / 9% [12%] {+7%}
• Herman Cain 17% / 12% {+5%}
• Donald Trump 43% / 43% {0%}
• Jon Huntsman 7% / 13% {-6%}
• Buddy Roemer 3% / 14% {-11%}
• Gary Johnson 1% / 12% {-11%}

Among Women

• Mike Huckabee 64% [69%] / 16% [14%] {+48%}
• Michele Bachmann 44% / 11% {+33%}
• Ron Paul 49% [40%] / 16% [22%] {+33%}
• Tim Pawlenty 36% [32%] / 5% [9%] {+31%}
• Mitt Romney 52% [57%] / 22% [22%] {+30%}
• Rudy Giuliani 49% [45%] / 21% [29%] {+28%}
• Sarah Palin 51% [57%] / 31% [31%] {+20%}
• Rick Santorum 22% [25%] / 6% [8%] {+16%}
• Newt Gingrich 40% [46%] / 28% [23%] {+12%}
• Herman Cain 13% / 6% {+7%}
• Mitch Daniels 10% [8%] / 5% [9%] {+5%}
• Donald Trump 40% / 36% {+4%}
• Haley Barbour 12% [16%] / 11% [13%] {+1%}
• Jon Huntsman 3% / 3% {0%}
• Gary Johnson 3% / 3% {0%}
• Buddy Roemer 1% / 6% {-5%}

Among Birthers (Believe Obama Was NOT Born in U.S.)

• Mike Huckabee 72% / 16% {+56%}
• Sarah Palin 67% / 22% {+45%}
• Ron Paul 58% / 13% {+45%}
• Michele Bachmann 52% / 9% {+43%}
• Tim Pawlenty 40% / 6% {+34%}
• Newt Gingrich 53% / 23% {+30%}
• Rudy Giuliani 53% / 23% {+30%}
• Mitt Romney 50% / 28% {+22%}
• Rick Santorum 28% / 12% {+16%}
• Donald Trump 50% / 36% {+14%}
• Haley Barbour 16% / 13% {+3%}
• Herman Cain 13% / 10% {+3%}
• Mitch Daniels 10% / 8% {+2%}
• Jon Huntsman 5% / 10% {-5%}
• Gary Johnson 2% / 9% {-7%}
• Buddy Roemer 2% / 11% {-9%}

Among Non-Birthers (Believe Obama WAS Born in U.S.)

• Mitt Romney 63% / 24% {+39%}
• Mike Huckabee 59% / 30% {+29%}
• Tim Pawlenty 39% / 22% {+17%}
• Rudy Giuliani 45% / 31% {+14%}
• Ron Paul 45% / 31% {+14%}
• Michele Bachmann 41% / 29% {+12%}
• Mitch Daniels 19% / 11% {+8%}
• Rick Santorum 27% / 19% {+8%}
• Haley Barbour 25% / 24% {+1%}
• Herman Cain 16% / 15% {+1%}
• Newt Gingrich 39% / 39% {0%}
• Jon Huntsman 8% / 9% {-1%}
• Gary Johnson 3% / 10% {-7%}
• Buddy Roemer 3% / 14% {-11%}
• Sarah Palin 40% / 52% {-12%}
• Donald Trump 32% / 59% {-27%}

Among Tea Party Members

• Michele Bachmann 72% / 7% {+65%}
• Mike Huckabee 78% / 18% {+60%}
• Ron Paul 69% / 11% {+58%}
• Sarah Palin 72% / 20% {+52%}
• Tim Pawlenty 49% / 11% {+38%}
• Newt Gingrich 50% / 26% {+24%}
• Rick Santorum 37% / 13% {+24%}
• Donald Trump 54% / 34% {+20%}
• Rudy Giuliani 47% / 29% {+18%}
• Herman Cain 24% / 10% {+14%}
• Mitch Daniels 19% / 11% {+8%}
• Mitt Romney 47% / 40% {+7%}
• Haley Barbour 26% / 19% {+7%}
• Jon Huntsman 5% / 11% {-6%}
• Gary Johnson 2% / 9% {-7%}
• Buddy Roemer 1% / 16% {-15%}

Among Non-Tea Party Republicans

• Mitt Romney 60% / 21% {+39%}
• Mike Huckabee 60% / 25% {+35%}
• Tim Pawlenty 37% / 12% {+25%}
• Rudy Giuliani 49% / 26% {+23%}
• Ron Paul 45% / 22% {+23%}
• Michele Bachmann 37% / 19% {+18%}
• Newt Gingrich 43% / 33% {+10%}
• Sarah Palin 47% / 38% {+9%}
• Rick Santorum 19% / 13% {+6%}
• Mitch Daniels 13% / 8% {+5%}
• Haley Barbour 15% / 16% {-1%}
• Herman Cain 10% / 11% {-1%}
• Jon Huntsman 6% / 8% {-2%}
• Gary Johnson 2% / 9% {-7%}
• Buddy Roemer 3% / 10% {-7%}
• Donald Trump 34% / 48% {-14%}

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 28%
• No 48%

Do you think Barack Obama was born in the United States?

• Yes 26%
• No 48%
• Not sure 26%

Would you be willing to vote for someone who supported a bill at the state level mandating that voters have health insurance for President?

• Willing to vote for someone who supported bill at state level mandating health insurance 11%
• Would not be willing to 63%

Survey of 419 usual Iowa Republican primary voters was conducted April 15-17, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 4.8 percentage points.  Political ideology: 44% Very conservative; 33% Somewhat conservative; 17% Moderate; 4% Somewhat liberal; 2% Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted January 7-9, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 25-27, 2010 are in parentheses.

Inside the Numbers:

Huckabee's doing pretty well with every segment of the GOP electorate in the state. He edges out Trump 23-20 with voters describing themselves as Tea Partiers and has a wider 28-19 advantage over Romney with Republicans who don't consider themselves part of that movement. He also does pretty well going across the ideological spectrum- he trails Romney 23-21 with those describing themselves as moderates, but has a 27-17 advantage over Romney with voters describing themselves as 'somewhat conservative' that expands to 29-14 with those labeling themselves as 'very conservative.' 

Bachmann may have usurped Palin as the Tea Party darling. While Palin gets almost twice as much support from Tea Partiers as non-Tea Partiers, Bachmann places no worse than fourth among Tea Partiers, and actually leads Romney 27-20 with this group in the smallest variation of the field. She earns roughly three times as much support from the 28% who label themselves part of the movement as the 48% plurality who do not identify with the movement. Huckabee or Romney lead overwhelmingly with the latter group.