This Week: Interview with David Plouffe

TODAY: Interview with Chris Christie

Christie: I think Romney 'wishes he could take back' birther joke

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Newt Gingrich Plays Hardball

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Mitt Romney Makes Birther Joke in Michigan

Giuliani On Romney’s Birth Certificate Joke: ‘Not The Most Tasteful Joke’

CNN State of the Union: Interview with Bob McDonnell

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Ohio 2012 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) Ohio 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 37% [25%] (19%) {19%} [20%] (23%) 
• Rick Santorum 36% [22%] (1%) {1%} 
• Newt Gingrich 15% [26%] (20%) {14%} [8%] (16%)  
• Ron Paul 11% [11%] (5%) {7%} [8%] (13%)
• Someone else/Not sure 2% [16%] (9%) {12%} [16%] (18%)

Already Voted (14%)

• Mitt Romney 41%
• Rick Santorum 34%
• Newt Gingrich 17%
• Ron Paul 8%

Plan to Vote on Election Day (86%)

• Rick Santorum 36%
• Mitt Romney 36%
• Newt Gingrich 15%
• Ron Paul 11%
• Someone else/Not sure 3%

Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?

• Strongly committed to that candidate 72% [44%] (36%) {29%}
• Might end up supporting someone else 28% [56%] (64%) {71%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rick Santorum 57% [59%] / 34% [24%] {+23%}
• Mitt Romney 52% [47%] (47%) {55%} [52%] (55%) {53%} [53%] / 40% [37%] (37%) {33%} [30%] (25%) {26%} [25%] {+12%} 
• Newt Gingrich 46% [47%] (62%) {56%} (42%) {46%} [53%] / 40% [37%] (24%) {32%} (34%) {29%} [27%] {+6%}
• Ron Paul 38% [31%] (33%) {32%} / 51% [52%] (46%) {49%} {-13%}

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 27% [28%] (35%) {33%}
• No 60% [57%] (50%) {54%}

Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?

• Are an Evangelical 43%
• Are not 57%

Which best describes when you decided who to vote for: in the last few days, the last week, the last month, or earlier than that?

• In the last few days 12%
• In the last week 10%
• In the last month 37%
• Earlier than that 30%

Do you think Barack Obama was born in the United States, or not?

• He was 42%
• He was not 37%
• Not sure 21%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Rush Limbaugh?

• Favorable 45%
• Unfavorable 28%

Survey of 666 likely Republican primary voters was conducted March 3-4, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points. Party ID: 76% Republican; 19% Independent; 5% Democrat.  Political ideology: 41% [35%] (42%) {37%} [41%] (38%) {34%} Very conservative; 35% [38%] (37%) {36%} [38%] (39%) {46%} Somewhat conservative; 15% [21%] (16%) {18%} [16%] (17%) {16%} Moderate; 5% [4%] (4%) {7%} [4%] (4%) {3%} Somewhat liberal; 3% [1%] (1%) {2%} [1%] (2%) {1%} Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted January 28-29, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 4-6, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 13-16, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 11-14, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 19-22, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 10-13, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 10-12, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 28-30, 2010 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Romney up 40-23 with folks who decided in the last few days in Ohio.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) New Hampshire 2012 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) New Hampshire 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 35% [28%] (40%)
• Ron Paul 19% [9%] (18%)
• Newt Gingrich 17% [4%] (17%)
• Jon Huntsman 13% [7%]
• Michele Bachmann 5% [21%] (8%)
• Rick Santorum 3%
• Rick Perry 2% [9%]
• Gary Johnson 1%
• Someone else/Undecided 4% [9%] (10%)

Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?

• Strongly committed to that candidate 65%
• Might end up supporting someone else 35%

Second Choice

• Newt Gingrich 17%
• Mitt Romney 16%
• Ron Paul 13%
• Jon Huntsman 10%
• Michele Bachmann 9%
• Rick Santorum 5%
• Rick Perry 4%
• Gary Johnson 3%
• Someone else/Undecided 22%

If the candidates at the time of the New Hampshire primary were just Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, and Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

• Mitt Romney 37%
• Ron Paul 21%
• Newt Gingrich 20%
• Jon Huntsman 15%
• Not sure 7%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mitt Romney 63% [60%] (68%) / 30% [29%] (19%) {+33%}
• Ron Paul 53% [53%] (53%) / 38% [30%] (21%) {+15%}
• Jon Huntsman 47% [25%] (8%) / 34% [26%] (13%) {+13%}
• Michele Bachmann 42% [64%] (38%) / 46% [24%] (18%) {-4%}
• Rick Santorum 37% [40%] (30%) / 44% [25%] (17%) {-7%}
• Newt Gingrich 42% [33%] (45%) / 51% [51%] (36%) {-9%}
• Rick Perry 24% [33%] / 63% [13%] {-39%}

What is more important to you when deciding who to vote for: a candidate’s ability to beat Barack Obama in the general election, or their positions on the issues?

• A candidate's ability to beat Obama 35%
• Their issue positions 51%

Do you think that Ron Paul has strong principles, or not?

• He does 69%
• He does not 8%

Do you think that Mitt Romney has strong principles, or not?

• He does 51%
• He does not 26%

Do you think that Jon Huntsman has strong principles, or not?

• He does 48%
• He does not 15%

Do you think that Newt Gingrich has strong principles, or not?

• He does 34%
• He does not 41%

Which of the Republican candidates do you think has the best chance of defeating Barack Obama?

• Mitt Romney 38%
• Newt Gingrich 14%
• Jon Huntsman 9%
• Ron Paul 9%
• Michele Bachmann 3%
• Gary Johnson 1%
• Rick Perry 1%
• Rick Santorum 1%
• Someone else/Not sure 24%

Who do you think is going to win the New Hampshire primary?

• Mitt Romney 41%
• Newt Gingrich 12%
• Ron Paul 9%
• Jon Huntsman 4%
• Michele Bachmann 2%
• Gary Johnson 1%
• Rick Perry 0%
• Rick Santorum 0%
• Someone else/Not sure 31%

Who do you think has run the strongest campaign in New Hampshire?

• Mitt Romney 35%
• Ron Paul 12%
• Jon Huntsman 10%
• Newt Gingrich 5%
• Michele Bachmann 2%
• Rick Santorum 1%
• Gary Johnson 1%
• Rick Perry 0%
• Someone else/Not sure 34%

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 24% [33%] (30%)
• No 68% [54%] (51%)

Do you think that Barack Obama was born in the United States, or not?

• He was 53%
• He was not 27%
• Not sure 20%

Would you support or oppose repealing New Hampshire’s law allowing same-sex marriages?

• Support 44%
• Oppose 39%
• Not sure 17%

Survey of 1,235 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters was conducted December 16-18, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 61% [65%] (67%) Republican; 34% [33%] (32%) Independent/Other; 5% [2%] (2%) Democrat.  Political ideology: 36% [36%] (43%) Somewhat conservative; 27% [37%] (31%) Very conservative; 26% [21%] (22%) Moderate; 7% [4%] (3%) Somewhat liberal; 4% [2%] (1%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted June 30 - July 5, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 31 - April 3, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Iowa 2012 Republican Caucus Survey

PPP (D) Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Poll

• Ron Paul 23% [21%] (18%) {10%} [16%] (11%) {16%}
• Mitt Romney 20% [16%] (16%) {22%} [19%] (26%) {28%}
• Newt Gingrich 14% [22%] (27%) {8%} [5%] (15%) {19%}
• Michele Bachmann 10% [11%] (13%) {8%} [18%] (14%) {15%}
• Rick Perry 10% [9%] (9%) {9%} [22%]
• Rick Santorum 10% [8%] (6%) {5%} [5%]
• Jon Huntsman 4% [5%] (4%) {1%} [3%] (1%)
• Gary Johnson 2% [1%] (1%) {1%}
• Someone else/Not sure 7% [7%] (7%) {5%} [5%] (8%) {12%}

Among Republicans

• Mitt Romney 22%  
  
• Ron Paul 19% 
• Newt Gingrich 17%  
• Rick Perry 11% 
• Rick Santorum 10%
• Michele Bachmann 10%
  
• Jon Huntsman 2%
• Gary Johnson 2%
• Someone else/Not sure 7%

Among Independents

• Ron Paul 34%  
• Mitt Romney 13%  
  
• Jon Huntsman 11% 
• Michele Bachmann 10% 
• Rick Santorum 9%
• Rick Perry 7% 
  
• Newt Gingrich 6%  
• Gary Johnson 4%
• Someone else/Not sure 6%

Very Conservative

• Newt Gingrich 17%
• Ron Paul 16%
• Michele Bachmann 15%
• Rick Perry 15%
• Mitt Romney 14% 
• Rick Santorum 13%
• Jon Huntsman 1%
• Gary Johnson 1%
• Someone else/Not sure 7% 

Somewhat Conservative

• Mitt Romney 25%  
• Ron Paul 20%
• Newt Gingrich 16% 
• Rick Santorum 11%
• Rick Perry 10%
• Michele Bachmann 4%
• Jon Huntsman 3%
• Gary Johnson 2%
• Someone else/Not sure 9% 

Moderate

• Ron Paul 35% 
• Mitt Romney 25%  
  
• Michele Bachmann 12% 
• Jon Huntsman 9%
• Newt Gingrich 7% 
  
• Gary Johnson 4%
• Rick Perry 3%
• Rick Santorum 1%
• Someone else/Not sure 4%

Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?

• Strongly committed to that candidate 63% [60%] (55%)
• Might end up supporting someone else 37% [40%] (45%)

Second Choice 

• Michele Bachmann 15% [11%] (10%) {11%}
• Rick Perry 14% [10%] (11%) {12%}
• Newt Gingrich 13% [14%] (17%) {17%}
• Mitt Romney 12% [13%] (13%) {11%}
• Rick Santorum 9% [8%] (9%) {5%}
• Ron Paul 9% [12%] (10%) {9%}
• Jon Huntsman 7% [7%] (5%) {3%}
• Gary Johnson 1% [1%] (2%) {1%}
• Someone else/Not sure 18% [25%] (22%) {15%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rick Santorum 52% [49%] (51%) {46%} [44%] (29%) {27%} [28%] / 32% [33%] (28%) {17%} [22%] (18%) {11%} [9%] {+20%}
• Michele Bachmann 52% [55%] (56%) {44%} [47%] (53%) {49%} / 34% [37%] (35%) {38%} [35%] (16%) {13%} {+18%}
• Ron Paul 54% [61%] (52%) {37%} [53%] (42%) {55%} [47%] / 38% [31%] (38%) {46%} [29%] (29%) {17%} [23%] {+16%}
• Mitt Romney 49% [48%] (49%) {51%} [45%] (51%) {55%} [57%] / 40% [44%] (45%) {36%} [38%] (34%) {25%} [26%] {+9%}
• Rick Perry 48% [43%] (44%) {38%} [56%] (21%) / 40% [47%] (46%) {41%} [24%] (16%) {+8%}
• Newt Gingrich 46% [52%] (62%) {56%} [42%] (39%) {47%} [53%] / 47% [40%] (31%) {32%} [44%] (41%) {26%} [27%] {-1%}
• Jon Huntsman 32% [28%] (30%) {18%} [13%] (7%) {5%} / 38% [43%] (45%) {28%} [40%] (23%) {8%} {-6%}

Which of the Republican candidates do you think has the best chance of defeating Barack Obama?

• Mitt Romney 25% [21%] (23%)5
• Newt Gingrich 17% [30%] (33%)
• Ron Paul 16% [14%] (9%)
• Michele Bachmann 7% [5%] (7%)
• Rick Perry 6% [7%] (7%)
• Rick Santorum 3% [3%] (2%)
• Jon Huntsman 3% [2%] (3%)
• Gary Johnson 2% [1%] (1%)
• Someone else/Not sure 20% [16%] (14%)

Who do you think is going to win the Iowa caucuses?

• Newt Gingrich 20%
• Ron Paul 20%
• Mitt Romney 19%
• Michele Bachmann 6%
• Rick Perry 3%
• Jon Huntsman 2%
• Rick Santorum 2%
• Gary Johnson 1%
• Someone else/Not sure 27%

Who do you think has run the strongest campaign in Iowa?

• Ron Paul 22%
• Michele Bachmann 19%
• Newt Gingrich 8%
• Rick Santorum 8%
• Rick Perry 7%
• Mitt Romney 5%
• Gary Johnson 2%
• Jon Huntsman 1%
• Someone else/Not sure 28%

Do you think that Ron Paul has strong principles, or not?

• He does 73%
• He does not 10%

Do you think that Mitt Romney has strong principles, or not?

• He does 50%
• He does not 31%

Do you think that Newt Gingrich has strong principles, or not?

• He does 36%
• He does not 43%

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 26% [27%] (32%) {29%} [33%] (31%) {28%}
• No 61% [61%] (58%) {52%} [51%] (48%) {48%}

What is more important to you when deciding who to vote for: a candidate’s ability to beat Barack Obama in the general election, or their positions on the issues?

• A candidate's ability to beat Obama 32% [32%] (34%)
• Their issue positions 56% [56%] (57%)

Do you think Barack Obama was born in the United States?

• Yes 47% {37%} [48%] (42%) {26%}
• No 31% {42%} [32%] (36%) {48%}
• Not sure 21% {22%} [20%] (23%) {26%}

Do you support or oppose ethanol subsidies?

• Support 33%
• Oppose 32%
• Not sure 35%

Survey of 597 likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers was conducted December 16-18, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percentage points.  Party ID: 75% [78%] (80%) Republican; 19% [17%] (14%) Independent/Other; 5% [4%] (6%) Democrat.  Political ideology: 36% [42%] (40%) {36%} [38%] (41%) {44%} Very conservative; 36% [35%] (37%) {36%} [34%] (37%) {33%} Somewhat conservative; 19% [17%] (15%) {21%} [21%] (14%) {17%} Moderate;  6% [3%] (5%) {4%} [3%] (6%) {4%} Somewhat liberal; 3% [4%] (3%) {3%} [3%] (2%) {2%} Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted December 11-13, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 3-5, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 7-10, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 19-21, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 27-30, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 15-17, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 7-9, 2011are in square brackets.

Reliable Sources Roundtable: Flirting with Birtherism

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Iowa 2012 Republican Caucus Survey

PPP (D) Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Survey

• Herman Cain 30% [7%] (16%)
• Mitt Romney 22% [19%] (26%) {28%}
• Ron Paul 10% [16%] (11%) {16%}
• Rick Perry 9% [22%]
• Michele Bachmann 8% [18%] (14%) {15%}
• Newt Gingrich 8% [5%] (15%) {19%}
• Rick Santorum 5% [5%]
• Gary Johnson 1%
• Jon Huntsman 1% [3%] (1%)
• Someone Else/Undecided 5% [5%] (8%) {12%}

Second Choice

• Newt Gingrich 17%
• Herman Cain 16%
• Rick Perry 12%
• Michele Bachmann 11%
• Mitt Romney 11%
• Ron Paul 9%
• Rick Santorum 5%
• Jon Huntsman 3%
• Gary Johnson 1%
• Someone Else/Undecided 15%

If the Republican race for president came down to Mitt Romney and Rick Perry, who would you vote for?

• Mitt Romney 46% [30%]
• Rick Perry 37% [48%]

If the Republican race for president came down to Mitt Romney and Herman Cain, who would you vote for?

• Herman Cain 48%
• Mitt Romney 38%

If the Republican race for president came down to Herman Cain and Rick Perry, who would you vote for?

• Herman Cain 52%
• Rick Perry 29%

Do you think that Herman Cain is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?

• Too liberal 6%
• Too conservative 10%
• About right 69%

Do you think that Rick Perry is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?

• Too liberal 21%
• Too conservative 15%
• About right 47%

Do you think that Mitt Romney is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?

• Too liberal 35%
• Too conservative 6%
• About right 48%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Herman Cain 63% [42%] (38%) {15%} / 17% [35%] (24%) {9%} {+46%}
• Rick Santorum 46% [44%] (29%) {27%} [28%] / 17% [22%] (18%) {11%} [9%] {+29%}
• Newt Gingrich 56% [42%] (39%) {47%} [53%] / 32% [44%] (41%) {26%} [27%] {+24%}
• Mitt Romney 51% [45%] (51%) {55%} [57%] / 36% [38%] (34%) {25%} [26%] {+15%}
• Michele Bachmann 44% [47%] (53%) {49%} / 38% [35%] (16%) {13%} {+6%}
• Rick Perry 38% [56%] (21%) / 41% [24%] (16%) {-3%}
• Ron Paul 37% [53%] (42%) {55%} [47%] / 46% [29%] (29%) {17%} [23%] {-9%}
• Jon Huntsman 18% [13%] (7%) {5%} / 28% [40%] (23%) {8%} {-10%}
• Buddy Roemer 2% [1%] (4%) {2%} / 12% [34%] (21%) {10%} {-10%}
• Fred Karger 2% [3%] (2%) / 13% [25%] (17%) {-11%}
• Gary Johnson 7% [5%] (4%) {2%} / 20% [31%] (18%) {8%} {-13%}

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 29% [33%] (31%) {28%}
• No 52% [51%] (48%) {48%}

Do you think Barack Obama was born in the United States?

• Yes 37% [48%] (42%) {26%}
• No 42% [32%] (36%) {48%}
• Not sure 22% [20%] (23%) {26%}

Survey of 311 probable Iowa Republican caucus-goers was conducted October 7-10, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 5.6 percentage points.  Political ideology: 36% [38%] (41%) {44%} Very conservative; 36% [34%] (37%) {33%} Somewhat conservative; 21% [21%] (14%) {17%} Moderate; 4% [3%] (6%) {4%} Somewhat liberal; 3% [3%] (2%) {2%} Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted August 19-21, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 27-30, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 15-17, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 7-9, 2011 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: Winthrop University South Carolina 2012 Republican Primary Survey

Winthrop University South Carolina 2012 Republican Primary Survey

• Rick Perry 29.8%
• Mitt Romney 26.5% (16.1%)
• Herman Cain 6.8% (1.7%)
• Sarah Palin 6.3% (8.6%)
• Newt Gingrich 4.6% (8.1%)
• Michele Bachmann 4.2% (3.8%)
• Ron Paul 4.2% (2.5%)
• Rick Santorum 2.6% (1.4%)
• Jon Huntsman 1.3% (0.8%)
• Other 0.8% (1.0%)
• Not Sure 12.1% (16.9%)

Among those “definitely” planning to vote in 2012 GOP primary

• Rick Perry 30.5%
• Mitt Romney 27.3%
• Herman Cain 7.7%
• Sarah Palin 5.8%
• Newt Gingrich 5.3%
• Ron Paul 4.2%
• Michele Bachmann 3.5%
• Jon Huntsman 1.6%
• Rick Santorum 1.5%
• Other 0.2%
• Not Sure 11.1%

Regardless of who you currently support, who do you think the eventual 2012 Republican presidential nominee will be?

• Rick Perry 33.4%
• Mitt Romney 28.0% (21.4%)
• Michele Bachmann 4.2% (1.0%)
• Sarah Palin 2.8% (4.1%)
• Ron Paul 2.6% (0.6%)
• Newt Gingrich 1.5% (4.9%)
• Herman Cain 1.2% (0.0%)
• Jon Huntsman 0.3% (0.2%)
• Rick Santorum 0.1% (0.2%)
• Other 0.4% (0.9%)
• Not Sure 25.0% (47.4%)

Which of the following comes closest to your beliefs: It is more important to select a Republican presidential nominee who can beat Barack Obama in 2012. --OR-- It is more important to select a Republican presidential nominee who matches my beliefs.

• Match beliefs 61.3% (56.0%)
• Beat Obama 32.0% (32.4%)

I am going to read you a list of words and phrases which people use to describe political figures. For each word or phrase, please tell me whether it describes Barack Obama Very Well, Well, Not Too Well, or Not Well At All.

The first term is “caring.” Would you say that term describes Barack Obama Very Well, Well, Not Too Well, or Not Well At All?

• Very Well 8.2%
• Well 32.1%
• Not Too Well 32.6%
• Not Well At All 22.9%

The next term is “honest.” Would you say that term describes Barack Obama Very Well, Well, Not Too Well, or Not Well At All?

• Very Well 5.0%
• Well 17.6%
• Not Too Well 36.8%
• Not Well at All 36.0%

The next term is “intelligent.” Would you say that term describes Barack Obama Very Well, Well, Not Too Well, or Not Well At All?

• Very Well 36.1%
• Well 42.2%
• Not Too Well 13.5%
• Not Well at All 8.2%

The next term is “socialist.” Would you say that term describes Barack Obama Very Well, Well, Not Too Well, or Not Well At All?

• Very Well 46.8%
• Well 27.9%
• Not Too Well 12.7%
• Not Well at All 5.5%

Now, thinking about Barack Obama’s religious beliefs… Do you happen to know what Barack Obama’s religion is? Is he Christian, Jewish, Muslim, Buddhist, Hindu, atheist, agnostic, or something else?

• Christian 33.8%
• Muslim 29.5%
• Agnostic 2.1%
• Atheist 0.8%
• Hindu 0.6%
• Buddhist 0.5%
• Jewish 0.0%
• Something Else/ Multiple 17.5%

Do you think Barack Obama was definitely born in the United States, probably born in the United States, probably born in another country, or definitely born in another country?

• Definitely born in the U.S. 23.9%
• Probably born in the U.S. 29.3%
• Pobably born in another country 23.6%
• Definitely born in another country 12.4%
• Not sure 9.5%

Would you consider yourself a member of the Tea Party Movement?

• Yes 27.8% (28.6%)
• No 67.8% (64.0%)

Regardless of whether you consider yourself a member of the Tea Party movement or not, would you say that you generally agree with the principles of the Tea Party movement or generally disagree with the principles of the Tea Party movement?

• Agree 74.4% (74.0%)
• Disagree 9.7% (7.8%)

Survey of 596 registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents was conducted September 11-18, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.01 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted April 17-23, 2011 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) South Carolina 2012 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) South Carolina 2012 GOP Primary Survey

• Rick Perry 36%
• Mitt Romney 13% {27%} [20%] (24%)
• Sarah Palin 10% {18%} [18%] (22%)
• Herman Cain 9% {12%}
• Michele Bachmann 7% {9%}
• Newt Gingrich 7% {12%} [13%] (25%)
• Ron Paul 5% {7%} [7%] (7%)
• Rick Santorum 4%
• Jon Huntsman 2% {2%}
• Someone else/Not sure 7% {9%} [8%]

If Sarah Palin doesn't run

• Rick Perry 36%
• Mitt Romney 16% {30%}
• Michele Bachmann 13% {13%}
• Herman Cain 9% {15%}
• Newt Gingrich 8% {15%}
• Ron Paul 5% {10%}
• Rick Santorum 4%
• Jon Huntsman 2% {2%}
• Someone else/Not sure 7% {11%}

If the Republican Presidential race came down to just Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

• Rick Perry 50%
• Mitt Romney 25%
• Michele Bachmann 16%

If the Republican Presidential race came down to just Rick Perry and Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

• Rick Perry 59%
• Mitt Romney 28%

If the Republican Presidential race came down to just Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry, who would you vote for?

• Rick Perry 63%
• Michele Bachmann 20%

If the Republican nomination contest came down to Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?

• Mitt Romney 45% {54%}
• Michele Bachmann 40% {29%}

Among Birthers

• Michele Bachmann 46% {30%}
• Mitt Romney 39% {54%}

Among Non-Birthers

• Mitt Romney 57% {58%}
• Michele Bachmann 28% {26%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rick Perry 65% {24%} / 15% {11%} {+50%}
• Rudy Giuliani 62% {54%} [59%] / 22% {25%} [20%] {+40%}
• Herman Cain 46% {41%} [11%] / 11% {20%} [5%] {+35%}
• Chris Christie 45% {46%} / 11% {11%} {+34%}
• Sarah Palin 59% {60%} [61%] / 33% {33%} [28%] {+26%}
• Mitt Romney 52% {56%} [60%] / 32% {27%} [22%] {+20%}
• Michele Bachmann 48% {45%} [32%] / 29% {16%} [13%] {+19%}
• Rick Santorum 34% {31%} [25%] / 19% {16%} [7%] {+15%}
• Newt Gingrich 42% {37%} [54%] / 40% {44%} [25%] {+2%}
• Ron Paul 35% {38%} [47%] / 35% {31%} [19%] {0%}
• Gary Johnson 3% {2%} / 13% {14%} {-10%}
• Fred Karger 2% {3%} / 12% {13%} {-10%}
• Buddy Roemer 2% {4%} / 14% {16%} {-12%}
• Jon Huntsman 11% {10%} [9%] / 26% {20%} [4%] {-15%}

Among Republicans

• Rick Perry 68% {24%} / 11% {10%} {+57%}
• Rudy Giuliani 68% {56%} [59%] / 18% {24%} [19%] {+50%}
• Herman Cain 48% {40%} [10%] / 9% {19%} [4%] {+39%}
• Chris Christie 47% {47%} / 8% {9%} {+39%}
• Sarah Palin 61% {64%} [65%] / 30% {29%} [24%] {+31%}
• Mitt Romney 55% {60%} [62%] / 29% {24%} [20%] {+26%}
• Michele Bachmann 50% {47%} [32%] / 25% {13%} [13%] {+25%}
• Rick Santorum 35% {32%} [27%] / 15% {14%} [5%] {+20%}
• Newt Gingrich 46% {40%} [57%] / 36% {40%} [22%] {+10%}
• Ron Paul 34% {36%} [47%] / 35% {31%} [17%] {-1%}
• Gary Johnson 3% {2%} / 12% {14%} {-9%}
• Fred Karger 2% {2%} / 12% {14%} {-10%}
• Buddy Roemer 3% {3%} / 13% {16%} {-10%}
• Jon Huntsman 9% {10%} [7%] / 25% {19%} [3%] {-16%}

Among GOP-Leaning Independents

• Rick Perry 52% {22%} / 30% {16%} {+22%}
• Herman Cain 42% {45%} [16%] / 21% {24%} [9%] {+21%}
• Chris Christie 39% {42%} / 25% {19%} {+14%}
• Rudy Giuliani 41% {44%} [59%] / 38% {32%} [25%] {+3%}
• Ron Paul 39% {47%} [45%] / 36% {32%} [28%] {+3%}
• Sarah Palin 46% {45%} [49%] / 47% {47%} [44%] {-1%}
• Mitt Romney 41% {42%} [52%] / 44% {42%} [32%] {-3%}
• Rick Santorum 30% {23%} [16%] / 33% {24%} [18%] {-3%}
• Michele Bachmann 41% {40%} [31%] / 45% {28%} [16%] {-4%}
• Fred Karger 3% {5%} / 13% {10%} {-10%}
• Jon Huntsman 19% {10%} [16%] / 30% {26%} [10%] {-11%}
• Gary Johnson 4% {3%} / 16% {13%} {-12%}
• Buddy Roemer 1% {5%} / 19% {15%} {-18%}
• Newt Gingrich 26% {25%} [42%] / 57% {59%} [37%] {-31%}

Among Very Conservative

• Rick Perry 75% {31%} / 8% {8%} {+67%}
• Sarah Palin 72% {74%} / 19% {18%} {+53%}
• Herman Cain 55% {51%} / 6% {13%} {+49%}
• Chris Christie 53% {56%} / 7% {7%} {+46%}
• Michele Bachmann 61% {59%} / 17% {8%} {+44%}
• Rudy Giuliani 60% {50%} / 20% {29%} {+40%}
• Rick Santorum 43% {41%} / 13% {11%} {+30%}
• Newt Gingrich 49% {44%} / 32% {37%} {+17%}
• Mitt Romney 48% {56%} / 34% {29%} {+14%}
• Ron Paul 38% {40%} / 36% {30%} {+2%}
• Buddy Roemer 3% {3%} / 13% {14%} {-10%}
• Gary Johnson 2% {2%} / 12% {14%} {-10%}
• Fred Karger 1% {1%} / 11% {13%} {-10%}
• Jon Huntsman 6% {8%} / 30% {21%} {-24%}

Among Somewhat Conservative

• Rudy Giuliani 73% {59%} / 17% {21%} {+56%}
• Rick Perry 66% {21%} / 13% {10%} {+53%}
• Chris Christie 51% {47%} / 8% {8%} {+43%}
• Herman Cain 51% {41%} / 11% {19%} {+40%}
• Mitt Romney 57% {58%} / 30% {23%} {+27%}
• Sarah Palin 56% {57%} / 33% {33%} {+23%}
• Michele Bachmann 47% {43%} / 28% {14%} {+19%}
• Rick Santorum 35% {29%} / 17% {14%} {+18%}
• Newt Gingrich 45% {35%} / 39% {42%} {+6%}
• Ron Paul 37% {39%} / 32% {29%} {+5%}
• Gary Johnson 3% {2%} / 13% {12%} {-10%}
• Fred Karger 2% {3%} / 12% {12%} {-10%}
• Jon Huntsman 13% {12%} / 26% {17%} {-13%}
• Buddy Roemer 1% {3%} / 15% {13%} {-14%}

Among Moderates

• Mitt Romney 57% {53%} [61%] / 26% {31%} [19%] {+31%}
• Rudy Giuliani 49% {46%} [62%] / 34% {29%} [18%] {+15%}
• Rick Perry 40% {12%} / 31% {18%} {+9%}
• Herman Cain 24% {25%} [5%] / 15% {33%} [10%] {+9%}
• Jon Huntsman 18% {9%} [7%] / 11% {21%} [6%] {+7%}
• Chris Christie 24% {27%} / 18% {18%} {+6%}
• Fred Karger 4% {3%} / 8% {15%} {-4%}
• Ron Paul 28% {32%} [33%] / 33% {33%} [28%] {-5%}
• Gary Johnson 2% {3%} / 9% {18%} {-7%}
• Buddy Roemer 1% {3%} / 11% {24%} {-10%}
• Rick Santorum 15% {14%} [13%] / 30% {26%} [15%] {-15%}
• Sarah Palin 36% {39%} [40%] / 56% {59%} [49%] {-20%}
• Newt Gingrich 25% {24%} [36%] / 53% {61%} [40%] {-28%}
• Michele Bachmann 24% {25%} [9%] / 52% {30%} [20%] {-28%}

Among Men

• Rick Perry 69% {27%} / 17% {14%} {+52%}
• Herman Cain 55% {48%} [15%] / 13% {23%} [5%] {+42%}
• Rudy Giuliani 63% {48%} [60%] / 24% {31%} [24%] {+39%}
• Chris Christie 51% {51%} / 14% {15%} {+37%}
• Sarah Palin 59% {57%} [63%] / 35% {36%} [31%] {+24%}
• Mitt Romney 56% {56%} [62%] / 34% {31%} [24%] {+22%}
• Michele Bachmann 52% {48%} [37%] / 31% {17%} [15%] {+21%}
• Rick Santorum 40% {34%} [27%] / 26% {21%} [9%] {+14%}
• Newt Gingrich 50% {36%} [57%] / 40% {48%} [26%] {+10%}
• Ron Paul 39% {47%} [56%] / 37% {29%} [20%] {+2%}
• Fred Karger 3% {4%} / 15% {17%} {-12%}
• Gary Johnson 3% {3%} / 17% {17%} {-14%}
• Buddy Roemer 3% {5%} / 18% {19%] {-15%}
• Jon Huntsman 14% {12%} [12%] / 33% {24%} [6%] {-19%}

Among Women

• Rick Perry 60% {20%} / 12% {8%} {+48%}
• Rudy Giuliani 62% {60%} [58%] / 20% {19%} [16%] {+42%}
• Chris Christie 39% {39%} / 7% {8%} {+32%}
• Sarah Palin 58% {63%} [60%] / 30% {29%} [25%] {+28%}
• Herman Cain 37% {34%} [7%] / 9% {17%} [4%] {+28%}
• Mitt Romney 48% {56%} [59%] / 30% {23%} [20%] {+18%}
• Michele Bachmann 44% {42%} [26%] / 26% {14%} [12%] {+18%}
• Rick Santorum 27% {27%} [22%] / 11% {11%} [5%] {+16%}
• Ron Paul 30% {29%} [37%] / 32% {33%} [18%] {-2%}
• Newt Gingrich 33% {38%} [51%] / 39% {39%} [24%] {-6%}
• Gary Johnson 2% {2%} / 8% {12%} {-6%}
• Buddy Roemer 2% {2%} / 10% {13%} {-8%}
• Fred Karger 1% {2%} / 9% {10%} {-8%}
• Jon Huntsman 8% {8%} [5%] / 18% {17%} [2%] {-10%}

Among Birthers (Believe Obama Was NOT Born in U.S.)

• Rick Perry 66% {22%} / 10% {10%} {+56%}
• Sarah Palin 67% {73%} / 23% {21%} {+44%}
• Rudy Giuliani 60% {59%} / 22% {21%} {+38%}
• Herman Cain 44% {41%} / 12% {20%} {+32%}
• Chris Christie 38% {43%} / 12% {8%} {+26%}
• Michele Bachmann 49% {46%} / 25% {13%} {+24%}
• Mitt Romney 49% {56%} / 35% {28%} {+14%}
• Rick Santorum 28% {30%} / 18% {16%} {+10%}
• Ron Paul 37% {41%} / 30% {25%} {+7%}
• Newt Gingrich 40% {43%} / 38% {38%} {+2%}
• Gary Johnson 3% {2%} / 15% {15%} {-12%}
• Buddy Roemer 3% {4%} / 16% {18%} {-13%}
• Fred Karger 1% {3%} / 15% {14%} {-14%}
• Jon Huntsman 7% {8%} / 25% {20%} {-18%}

Among Non-Birthers (Believe Obama WAS Born in U.S.)

• Rudy Giuliani 64% {53%} / 23% {28%} {+41%}
• Rick Perry 62% {28%} / 22% {14%} {+40%}
• Chris Christie 50% {49%} / 14% {16%} {+36%}
• Mitt Romney 60% {59%} / 30% {28%} {+30%}
• Herman Cain 45% {43%} / 16% {20%} {+29%}
• Rick Santorum 38% {33%} / 23% {22%} {+15%}
• Michele Bachmann 41% {43%} / 38% {22%} {+3%}
• Sarah Palin 43% {47%} / 49% {46%} {-6%}
• Jon Huntsman 19% {13%} / 25% {23%} {-6%}
• Ron Paul 34% {38%} / 41% {37%} {-7%}
• Newt Gingrich 40% {33%} / 48% {51%} {-8%}
• Fred Karger 4% {3%} / 12% {14%} {-8%}
• Buddy Roemer 3% {5%} / 14% {17%} {-11%}
• Gary Johnson 3% {3%} / 14% {15%} {-11%}

Believe in Evolution

• Rick Perry 60% / 22% {+38%}
• Mitt Romney 64% / 27% {+37%}
• Chris Christie 48% / 14% {+34%}
• Rudy Giuliani 60% / 27% {+33%}
• Herman Cain 48% / 16% {+32%}
• Michele Bachmann 44% / 39% {+5%}
• Rick Santorum 33% / 28% {+5%}
• Sarah Palin 47% / 47% {0%}
• Ron Paul 37% / 40% {-3%}
• Jon Huntsman 19% / 24% {-5%}
• Fred Karger 4% / 12% {-8%}
• Newt Gingrich 40% / 49% {-9%}
• Gary Johnson 4% / 13% {-9%}
• Buddy Roemer 1% / 17% {-16%}

Do NOT Believe in Evolution

• Rick Perry 69% / 9% {+60%}
• Rudy Giuliani 62% / 19% {+43%}
• Sarah Palin 64% / 26% {+38%}
• Herman Cain 45% / 10% {+35%}
• Chris Christie 44% / 10% {+34%}
• Michele Bachmann 51% / 22% {+29%}
• Rick Santorum 32% / 15% {+17%}
• Mitt Romney 46% / 35% {+11%}
• Newt Gingrich 44% / 35% {+9%}
• Ron Paul 34% / 33% {+1%}
• Buddy Roemer 3% / 13% {-10%}
• Gary Johnson 2% / 13% {-11%}
• Fred Karger 1% / 14% {-13%}
• Jon Huntsman 7% / 26% {-19%}

Do you think Barack Obama was born in the United States?

• Yes 35% {42%}
• No 44% {37%}
• Not sure 21% {21%}

Among Those Who Believe in Evolution

• Yes 51%
• No 32%
• Not sure 18%

Among Those Who Do NOT Believe in Evolution

• Yes 27%
• No 51%
• Not sure 22%

How important to you is it that the Republican Presidential candidate be from the South: very important, somewhat important, or not that important?

• Very important 9%
• Somewhat important 15%
• Not that important 75%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Tea Party?

• Favorable 71%
• Unfavorable 13%

Do you believe in global warming or not?

• Believe in global warming 25%
• Do not 61%

Do you believe in evolution or not?

• Believe in evolution 32%
• Do not 57%

Survey of 750 usual South Carolina Republican primary voters was conducted August 25-28, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 80% {78%} [81%] (77%) Republican; 18% {19%} [18%] (20%) Independent/Other; 1% {3%} [0%] (3%) Democrat. Political ideology: 40% {41%} Very conservative; 39% {36%} Somewhat conservative; 16% {17%} Moderate; 4% {3%} Somewhat liberal; 1% {3%} Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted June 2-5, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 28-30, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 22-23, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Iowa 2012 Republican Caucus Survey

PPP (D) Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Survey

If the candidates for President next year were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for?

• Rick Perry 21%
• Mitt Romney 18% (21%) {25%}
• Michele Bachmann 15% (11%) {10%}
• Ron Paul 12% (8%) {15%}
• Sarah Palin 10% (15%) {15%}
• Newt Gingrich 7% (12%) {15%}
• Herman Cain 6% (15%)
• Rick Santorum 5%
• Jon Huntsman 3% (0%)
• Someone Else/Undecided 4% (8%) {11%}

If Sarah Palin didn’t run, and the candidates were just Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum. Who would you vote for?

• Rick Perry 22%
• Mitt Romney 19% (26%) {28%}
• Michele Bachmann 18% (14%) {15%}
• Ron Paul 16% (11%) {16%}
• Herman Cain 7% (16%)
• Rick Santorum 5%
• Newt Gingrich 5% (15%) {19%}
• Jon Huntsman 3% (1%)
• Someone Else/Undecided 5% (8%) {12%}

If the Republican Presidential race came down to just Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

• Rick Perry 34%
• Mitt Romney 28%
• Michele Bachmann 24%

If the Republican Presidential race came down to just Michele Bachmann and Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

• Michele Bachmann 44% (38%)
• Mitt Romney 42% (46%)

If the Republican Presidential race came down to just Rick Perry and Mitt Romney, who would
you vote for?

• Rick Perry 48%
• Mitt Romney 30%

If the Republican Presidential race came down to just Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry, who would you vote for?

• Rick Perry 51%
• Michele Bachmann 27%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rick Perry 56% (21%) / 24% (16%) {+32%}
• Ron Paul 53% (42%) {55%} [47%] / 29% (29%) {17%} [23%] {+24%}
• Rick Santorum 44% (29%) {27%} [28%] / 22% (18%) {11%} [9%] {+22%}
• Chris Christie 43% (42%) / 21% (12%) {+22%}
• Paul Ryan 38% (42%) / 21% (14%) {+17%}
• Sarah Palin 52% (59%) {58%} [60%] / 36% (31%) {29%} [29%] {+16%}
• Michele Bachmann 47% (53%) {49%} / 35% (16%) {13%} {+12%}
• Rudy Giuliani 43% (49%) {48%} [49%] / 34% (31%) {25%} [30%] {+9%}
• Mitt Romney 45% (51%) {55%} [57%] / 38% (34%) {25%} [26%] {+7%}
• Herman Cain 42% (38%) {15%} / 35% (24%) {9%} {+7%}
• Newt Gingrich 42% (39%) {47%} [53%] / 44% (41%) {26%} [27%] {-2%}
• Fred Karger 3% (2%) / 25% (17%) {-22%}
• Gary Johnson 5% (4%) {2%} / 31% (18%) {8%} {-26%}
• Jon Huntsman 13% (7%) {5%} / 40% (23%) {8%} {-27%}
• Buddy Roemer 1% (4%) {2%} / 34% (21%) {10%} {-33%}

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 33% (31%) {28%}
• No 51% (48%) {48%}

Do you think Barack Obama was born in the United States?

• Yes 48% (42%) {26%}
• No 32% (36%) {48%}
• Not sure 20% (23%) {26%}

Do you believe in evolution or not?

• Believe in evolution 35%
• Do not 48%

Do you believe in global warming or not?

• Believe in global warming 21%
• Do not 66%

Survey of 317 usual Iowa Republican primary voters was conducted August 19-21, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points.  Political ideology: 38% (41%) {44%} Very conservative; 34% (37%) {33%} Somewhat conservative; 21% (14%) {17%} Moderate; 3% (6%) {4%} Somewhat liberal; 3% (2%) {2%} Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted May 27-30, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 15-17, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 7-9, 2011 are in square brackets.

Inside the numbers:

• Romney up 12 on Perry with evolution believers, 22 with global warming believers.
• 32% of Iowa Republicans are still birthers. Perry leads Romney by 12 points with them.
• 48% of Iowa Republicans don't believe in evolution. Perry leads Romney by 17 points with them.
• 66% of Iowa Republicans don't believe in global warming. Perry leads Romney by 15 points with them.
• Huge divide in the Iowa GOP base. Among Tea Partiers Perry leads Romney 32-6. Among non-Tea Partiers Romney leads Perry 30-16.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) New Hampshire 2012 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) New Hampshire 2012 GOP Primary Survey

• Mitt Romney 25% (37%)
• Michele Bachmann 18% (4%)
• Sarah Palin 11% (14%)
• Ron Paul 9% (13%)
• Rick Perry 7%
• Herman Cain 7%
• Jon Huntsman 6%
• Tim Pawlenty 6% (5%)
• Newt Gingrich 4% (14%)
• Someone else/Undecided 7% (11%)

If Sarah Palin didn’t end up running for President, and the candidates were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Perry, and Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

• Mitt Romney 28% (40%)
• Michele Bachmann 21% (8%)
• Rick Perry 9%
• Ron Paul 9% (18%)
• Jon Huntsman 7%
• Herman Cain 7%
• Tim Pawlenty 6% (5%)
• Newt Gingrich 4% (17%)
• Someone else/Undecided 9% (10%)

If the Republican nomination contest came down to Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?

• Mitt Romney 49%
• Michele Bachmann 37%

If the Republican nomination contest came down to Mitt Romney and Rick Perry, who would you vote for?

• Mitt Romney 53%
• Rick Perry 28%

If the Republican nomination contest came down to Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty, who would you vote for?

• Mitt Romney 59%
• Tim Pawlenty 25%

If the Republican nomination contest came down to Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?

• Mitt Romney 65%
• Sarah Palin 26%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Michele Bachmann 64% (38%) / 24% (18%) {+40%}
• Jeb Bush 59% / 19% {+40%}
• Rudy Giuliani 62% (62%) / 23% (22%) {+39%}
• Chris Christie 55% / 17% {+38%}
• Mitt Romney 60% (68%) / 29% (19%) {+31%}
• Paul Ryan 39% / 15% {+24%}
• Ron Paul 53% (53%) / 30% (21%) {+23%}
• Rick Perry 33% / 13% {+20%}
• Tim Pawlenty 45% (34%) / 27% (14%) {+18%}
• Herman Cain 42% (9%) / 25% (13%) {+17%}
• Rick Santorum 40% (30%) / 25% (17%) {+15%}
• Sarah Palin 52% (51%) / 39% (39%) {+13%}
• Jon Huntsman 25% (8%) / 26% (13%) {-1%}
• Gary Johnson 9% / 15% {-6%}
• Buddy Roemer 5% / 16% {-11%}
• Fred Karger 2% / 16% {-14%}
• Newt Gingrich 33% (45%) / 51% (36%) {-18%}

Among Republicans

• Jeb Bush 64% / 14% {+50%}
• Michele Bachmann 67% (38%) / 20% (17%) {+47%}
• Mitt Romney 65% (75%) / 24% (15%) {+41%}
• Chris Christie 54% / 14% {+40%}
• Rudy Giuliani 60% (67%) / 24% (18%) {+36%}
• Paul Ryan 37% / 12% {+25%}
• Tim Pawlenty 47% (34%) / 25% (13%) {+22%}
• Ron Paul 52% (53%) / 31% (19%) {+21%}
• Rick Perry 32% / 13% {+19%}
• Sarah Palin 54% (58%) / 38% (31%) {+16%}
• Rick Santorum 38% (33%) / 24% (17%) {+14%}
• Herman Cain 39% (11%) / 27% (15%) {+12%}
• Jon Huntsman 26% (9%) / 27% (14%) {-1%}
• Gary Johnson 10% / 15% {-5%}
• Buddy Roemer 6% / 15% {-9%}
• Newt Gingrich 33% (51%) / 48% (32%) {-15%}
• Fred Karger 1% / 17% {-16%}

Among Independents

• Rudy Giuliani 65% (51%) / 22% (32%) {+43%}
• Chris Christie 56% / 22% {+34%}
• Herman Cain 52% (4%) / 20% (9%) {+32%}
• Ron Paul 54% (54%) / 26% (22%) {+28%}
• Michele Bachmann 57% (36%) / 31% (22%) {+26%}
• Paul Ryan 44% / 20% {+24%}
• Rick Perry 37% / 14% {+23%}
• Jeb Bush 46% / 29% {+17%}
• Rick Santorum 41% (23%) / 27% (19%) {+14%}
• Tim Pawlenty 42% (35%) / 29% (17%) {+13%}
• Mitt Romney 48% (52%) / 40% (28%) {+8%}
• Sarah Palin 46% (38%) / 41% (53%) {+5%}
• Jon Huntsman 22% (6%) / 24% (11%) {-2%}
• Fred Karger 4% / 12% {-8%}
• Gary Johnson 5% / 17% {-12%}
• Buddy Roemer 3% / 18% {-15%}
• Newt Gingrich 30% (33%) / 57% (45%) {-27%}

Among Men

• Michele Bachmann 64% (37%) / 25% (22%) {+39%}
• Chris Christie 58% / 19% {+39%}
• Jeb Bush 60% / 23% {+37%}
• Rudy Giuliani 60% (59%) / 25% (23%) {+35%}
• Ron Paul 60% (58%) / 26% (22%) {+34%}
• Mitt Romney 61% (67%) / 30% (20%) {+31%}
• Paul Ryan 46% / 17% {+29%}
• Rick Perry 36% / 16% {+20%}
• Herman Cain 46% (10%) / 28% (19%) {+18%}
• Tim Pawlenty 45% (35%) / 31% (19%) {+14%}
• Sarah Palin 52% (52%) / 38% (38%) {+14%}
• Rick Santorum 36% (33%) / 29% (24%) {+7%}
• Jon Huntsman 29% (10%) / 28% (19%) {+1%}
• Gary Johnson 14% / 16% {-2%}
• Buddy Roemer 8% / 17% {-9%}
• Fred Karger 4% / 17% {-13%}
• Newt Gingrich 32% (49%) / 53% (34%) {-21%}

Among Women

• Jeb Bush 58% / 14% {+44%}
• Rudy Giuliani 63% (66%) / 21% (21%) {+42%}
• Michele Bachmann 64% (38%) / 22% (14%) {+42%}
• Chris Christie 50% / 14% {+36%}
• Mitt Romney 57% (68%) / 28% (19%) {+29%}
• Rick Santorum 44% (27%) / 19% (11%) {+25%}
• Tim Pawlenty 46% (33%) / 22% (10%) {+24%}
• Rick Perry 29% / 10% {+19%}
• Paul Ryan 30% / 12% {+18%}
• Herman Cain 38% (8%) / 21% (7%) {+17%}
• Sarah Palin 52% (50%) / 40% (40%) {+12%}
• Ron Paul 43% (48%) / 34% (20%) {+9%}
• Jon Huntsman 20% (7%) / 24% (7%) {-4%}
• Gary Johnson 3% / 14% {-11%}
• Fred Karger 1% / 13% {-12%}
• Buddy Roemer 2% / 15% {-13%}
• Newt Gingrich 33% (41%) / 48% (38%) {-15%}

Among Birthers

• Michele Bachmann 73% (41%) / 15% (11%) {+58%}
• Rudy Giuliani 62% (72%) / 22% (18%) {+40%}
• Jeb Bush 55% / 16% {+39%}
• Chris Christie 52% / 15% {+37%}
• Sarah Palin 64% (60%) / 28% (29%) {+36%}
• Mitt Romney 59% (72%) / 29% (18%) {+30%}
• Ron Paul 51% (55%) / 25% (18%) {+26%}
• Rick Santorum 41% (32%) / 17% (13%) {+24%}
• Rick Perry 34% / 16% {+18%}
• Paul Ryan 32% / 14% {+18%}
• Herman Cain 42% (12%) / 28% (16%) {+14%}
• Tim Pawlenty 38% (37%) / 32% (11%) {+6%}
• Newt Gingrich 41% (56%) / 44% (26%) {-3%}
• Jon Huntsman 18% (7%) / 29% (15%) {-11%}
• Buddy Roemer 8% / 20% {-12%}
• Fred Karger 3% / 21% {-18%}
• Gary Johnson 4% / 23% {-19%}

Among Non-Birthers

• Rudy Giuliani 61% (55%) / 25% (28%) {+36%}
• Jeb Bush 58% / 25% {+33%}
• Chris Christie 53% / 21% {+32%}
• Mitt Romney 60% (64%) / 30% (22%) {+30%}
• Michele Bachmann 58% (26%) / 31% (35%) {+27%}
• Paul Ryan 44% / 18% {+26%}
• Ron Paul 54% (48%) / 32% (31%) {+22%}
• Tim Pawlenty 47% (30%) / 28% (24%) {+19%}
• Rick Perry 32% / 15% {+17%}
• Herman Cain 40% (5%) / 26% (13%) {+14%}
• Jon Huntsman 29% (9%) / 27% (17%) {+2%}
• Rick Santorum 35% (22%) / 34% (30%) {+1%}
• Gary Johnson 12% / 15% {-3%}
• Sarah Palin 43% (31%) / 49% (62%) {-6%}
• Fred Karger 3% / 16% {-13%}
• Buddy Roemer 4% / 18% {-14%}
• Newt Gingrich 24% (31%) / 62% (56%) {-38%}

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 33% (30%)
• No 54% (51%)

Do you think Barack Obama was born in the United States?

• Yes 54% (35%)
• No 30% (42%)
• Not sure 16% (23%)

Survey of 341 New Hampshire Republican primary voters was conducted June 30 - July 5, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 5.3 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 65% (67%) Republican; 33% (32%) Independent/Other; 2% (2%) Democrat.  Political ideology: 37% (31%) Very conservative; 36% (43%) Somewhat conservative; 21% (22%) Moderate; 4% (3%) Somewhat liberal; 2% (1%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted March 31 - April 3, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Vanderbilt Tennessee 2012 Presidential Survey

Vanderbilt Tennessee 2012 Presidential Survey

• Barack Obama 37%
• Mitt Romney 35%
• Neither 21%

• Barack Obama 37%
• Tim Pawlenty 28%
• Neither 27%

• Barack Obama 38%
• Michele Bachmann 27%
• Neither 26%

• Barack Obama 38%
• Newt Gingrich 26%
• Neither 28%

• Barack Obama 43% (42%)
• Sarah Palin 29% (37%)
• Neither 24%

According to the U.S. Constitution, American presidents must be 'natural born citizens.' Some people say Barack Obama was born in another country, whereas others believe that he was born here in the United States. How about you - do you think Barack Obama was born in the United States, or born in another country?

• Born in the United States 65%
• Born in another country 19%
• Don't know 14%

Do you think of yourself as part of the Tea Party movement?

• Yes 14%
• No 79%

Survey of 700 respondents was conducted June 3-8, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted January 17-23, 2011 are in parentheses.  Party ID breakdown: 30% Democrat; 23% Republican; 30% Independent; 13% Something else.  Political ideology: 41% Conservative; 35% Moderate; 13% Liberal.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2012 South Carolina Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) 2012 South Carolina GOP Primary Survey

• Mitt Romney 27% [20%] (24%)
• Sarah Palin 18% [18%] (22%)
• Herman Cain 12%
• Newt Gingrich 12% [13%] (25%)
• Michele Bachmann 9%
• Ron Paul 7% [7%] (7%)
• Tim Pawlenty 4% [4%]
• Jon Huntsman 2%
• Someone else/Undecided 9% [8%]

If Sarah Palin didn’t run and the choices were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney who would you most like to see as the nominee?

• Mitt Romney 30%
• Herman Cain 15%
• Newt Gingrich 15%
• Michele Bachmann 13%
• Ron Paul 10%
• Tim Pawlenty 5%
• Jon Huntsman 2%
• Someone else/Undecided 11%

What if Jim DeMint ran for President and the candidates were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Jim DeMint, Newt Gingrich, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney.  Who would you vote for?

• Jim DeMint 35% [24%] (21%)
• Mitt Romney 21% [17%] (16%)
• Sarah Palin 11% [12%] (15%)
• Herman Cain 8%
• Newt Gingrich 6% [10%] (16%)
• Michele Bachmann 5%
• Ron Paul 4% [4%] (7%)
• Tim Pawlenty 2% [3%]
• Someone else/Undecided 8% [8%]

If the Republican nomination contest came down to Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?

• Mitt Romney 50%
• Sarah Palin 38%

If the Republican nomination contest came down to Mitt Romney and Herman Cain, who would you vote for?

• Mitt Romney 53%
• Herman Cain 29%

If the Republican nomination contest came down to Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?

• Mitt Romney 54%
• Michele Bachmann 29%

If the Republican nomination contest came down to Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty, who would you vote for?

• Mitt Romney 55%
• Tim Pawlenty 23%

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 34% [32%]
• No 46% [52%]

Do you think Barack Obama was born in the United States?

• Yes 42%
• No 37%
• Not sure 21%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Jeb Bush 56% / 15% {+41%}
• Chris Christie 46% / 11% {+35%}
• Paul Ryan 41% / 11% {+30%}
• Rudy Giuliani 54% [59%] / 25% [20%] {+29%}
• Mitt Romney 56% [60%] / 27% [22%] {+29%}
• Michele Bachmann 45% [32%] / 16% [13%] {+29%}
• Sarah Palin 60% [61%] / 33% [28%] {+27%}
• Herman Cain 41% [11%] / 20% [5%] {+21%}
• Rick Santorum 31% [25%] / 16% [7%] {+15%}
• Rick Perry 24% / 11% {+13%}
• Tim Pawlenty 33% [28%] / 24% [6%] {+9%}
• Ron Paul 38% [47%] / 31% [19%] {+7%}
• Newt Gingrich 37% [54%] / 44% [25%] {-7%}
• Jon Huntsman 10% [9%] / 20% [4%] {-10%}
• Fred Karger 3% / 13% {-10%}
• Buddy Roemer 4% / 16% {-12%}
• Gary Johnson 2% / 14% {-12%}
• Donald Trump 32% / 50% {-18%}

Among Republicans

• Jeb Bush 60% / 12% {+48%}
• Chris Christie 47% / 9% {+38%}
• Mitt Romney 60% [62%] / 24% [20%] {+36%}
• Sarah Palin 64% [65%] / 29% [24%] {+35%}
• Michele Bachmann 47% [32%] / 13% [13%] {+34%}
• Paul Ryan 43% / 9% {+34%}
• Rudy Giuliani 56% [59%] / 24% [19%] {+32%}
• Herman Cain 40% [10%] / 19% [4%] {+21%}
• Rick Santorum 32% [27%] / 14% [5%] {+18%}
• Rick Perry 24% / 10% {+14%}
• Tim Pawlenty 33% [29%] / 23% [4%] {+10%}
• Ron Paul 36% [47%] / 31% [17%] {+5%}
• Newt Gingrich 40% [57%] / 40% [22%] {0%}
• Jon Huntsman 10% [7%] / 19% [3%] {-9%}
• Fred Karger 2% / 14% {-12%}
• Gary Johnson 2% / 14% {-12%}
• Buddy Roemer 3% / 16% {-13%}
• Donald Trump 33% / 49% {-16%}

Among GOP-Leaning Independents

• Chris Christie 42% / 19% {+23%}
• Herman Cain 45% [16%] / 24% [9%] {+21%}
• Paul Ryan 37% / 18% {+19%}
• Ron Paul 47% [45%] / 32% [28%] {+15%}
• Jeb Bush 43% / 29% {+14%}
• Rudy Giuliani 44% [59%] / 32% [25%] {+12%}
• Michele Bachmann 40% [31%] / 28% [16%] {+12%}
• Rick Perry 22% / 16% {+6%}
• Tim Pawlenty 33% [26%] / 31% [16%] {+2%}
• Mitt Romney 42% [52%] / 42% [32%] {0%}
• Rick Santorum 23% [16%] / 24% [18%] {-1%}
• Sarah Palin 45% [49%] / 47% [44%] {-2%}
• Fred Karger 5% / 10% {-5%}
• Buddy Roemer 5% / 15% {-10%}
• Gary Johnson 3% / 13% {-10%}
• Jon Huntsman 10% [16%] / 26% [10%] {-16%}
• Donald Trump 24% / 57% {-33%}
• Newt Gingrich 25% [42%] / 59% [37%] {-34%}

Among Very Conservative Republicans

• Sarah Palin 74% / 18% {+56%}
• Jeb Bush 64% / 11% {+53%}
• Michele Bachmann 59% / 8% {+51%}
• Chris Christie 56% / 7% {+49%}
• Paul Ryan 54% / 5% {+49%}
• Herman Cain 51% / 13% {+38%}
• Rick Santorum 41% / 11% {+30%}
• Mitt Romney 56% / 29% {+27%}
• Rick Perry 31% / 8% {+23%}
• Rudy Giuliani 50% / 29% {+21%}
• Tim Pawlenty 37% / 19% {+18%}
• Ron Paul 40% / 30% {+10%}
• Newt Gingrich 44% / 37% {+7%}
• Buddy Roemer 3% / 14% {-11%}
• Gary Johnson 2% / 14% {-12%}
• Fred Karger 1% / 13% {-12%}
• Jon Huntsman 8% / 21% {-13%}
• Donald Trump 33% / 49% {-16%}

Among Somewhat Conservative Republicans

• Jeb Bush 60% / 12% {+48%}
• Chris Christie 47% / 8% {+39%}
• Rudy Giuliani 59% / 21% {+38%}
• Mitt Romney 58% / 23% {+35%}
• Paul Ryan 40% / 8% {+32%}
• Michele Bachmann 43% / 14% {+29%}
• Sarah Palin 57% / 33% {+24%}
• Herman Cain 41% / 19% {+22%}
• Tim Pawlenty 36% / 19% {+17%}
• Rick Santorum 29% / 14% {+15%}
• Rick Perry 21% / 10% {+11%}
• Ron Paul 39% / 29% {+10%}
• Jon Huntsman 12% / 17% {-5%}
• Newt Gingrich 35% / 42% {-7%}
• Fred Karger 3% / 12% {-9%}
• Buddy Roemer 3% / 13% {-10%}
• Gary Johnson 2% / 12% {-10%}
• Donald Trump 34% / 46% {-12%}

Among Moderate Republicans

• Mitt Romney 53% [61%] / 31% [19%] {+22%}
• Rudy Giuliani 46% [62%] / 29% [18%] {+17%}
• Jeb Bush 38% / 26% {+12%}
• Chris Christie 27% / 18% {+9%}
• Ron Paul 32% [33%] / 33% [28%] {-1%}
• Paul Ryan 22% / 24% {-2%}
• Michele Bachmann 25% [9%] / 30% [20%] {-5%}
• Rick Perry 12% / 18% {-6%}
• Herman Cain 25% [5%] / 33% [10%] {-8%}
• Rick Santorum 14% [13%] / 26% [15%] {-12%}
• Jon Huntsman 9% [7%] / 21% [6%] {-12%}
• Fred Karger 3% / 15% {-12%}
• Gary Johnson 3% / 18% {-15%}
• Tim Pawlenty 23% [17%] / 39% [11%] {-16%}
• Sarah Palin 39% [40%] / 59% [49%] {-20%}
• Buddy Roemer 3% / 24% {-21%}
• Newt Gingrich 24% [36%] / 61% [40%] {-37%}
• Donald Trump 24% / 65% {-41%}

Among Men

• Jeb Bush 60% / 17% {+43%}
• Chris Christie 51% / 15% {+36%}
• Paul Ryan 48% / 15% {+33%}
• Michele Bachmann 48% [37%] / 17% [15%] {+31%}
• Mitt Romney 56% [62%] / 31% [24%] {+25%}
• Herman Cain 48% [15%] / 23% [5%] {+25%}
• Sarah Palin 57% [63%] / 36% [31%] {+21%}
• Ron Paul 47% [56%] / 29% [20%] {+18%}
• Rudy Giuliani 48% [60%] / 31% [24%] {+17%}
• Rick Santorum 34% [27%] / 21% [9%] {+13%}
• Rick Perry 27% / 14% {+13%}
• Tim Pawlenty 36% [33%] / 26% [9%] {+10%}
• Jon Huntsman 12% [12%] / 24% [6%] {-12%}
• Newt Gingrich 36% [57%] / 48% [26%] {-12%}
• Fred Karger 4% / 17% {-13%}
• Buddy Roemer 5% / 19% {-14%}
• Gary Johnson 3% / 17% {-14%}
• Donald Trump 30% / 53% {-23%}

Among Women

• Rudy Giuliani 60% [58%] / 19% [16%] {+41%}
• Jeb Bush 53% / 14% {+39%}
• Sarah Palin 63% [60%] / 29% [25%] {+34%}
• Mitt Romney 56% [59%] / 23% [20%] {+33%}
• Chris Christie 39% / 8% {+31%}
• Michele Bachmann 42% [26%] / 14% [12%] {+28%}
• Paul Ryan 34% / 7% {+27%}
• Herman Cain 34% [7%] / 17% [4%] {+17%}
• Rick Santorum 27% [22%] / 11% [5%] {+16%}
• Rick Perry 20% / 8% {+12%}
• Tim Pawlenty 30% [23%] / 22% [4%] {+8%}
• Newt Gingrich 38% [51%] / 39% [24%] {-1%}
• Ron Paul 29% [37%] / 33% [18%] {-4%}
• Fred Karger 2% / 10% {-8%}
• Jon Huntsman 8% [5%] / 17% [2%] {-9%}
• Gary Johnson 2% / 12% {-10%}
• Buddy Roemer 2% / 13% {-11%}
• Donald Trump 34% / 47% {-13%}

Among Birthers (Believe Obama Was NOT Born in U.S.)

• Sarah Palin 73% / 21% {+52%}
• Jeb Bush 60% / 10% {+50%}
• Rudy Giuliani 59% / 21% {+38%}
• Chris Christie 43% / 8% {+35%}
• Michele Bachmann 46% / 13% {+33%}
• Paul Ryan 38% / 8% {+30%}
• Mitt Romney 56% / 28% {+28%}
• Herman Cain 41% / 20% {+21%}
• Ron Paul 41% / 25% {+16%}
• Rick Santorum 30% / 16% {+14%}
• Rick Perry 22% / 10% {+12%}
• Newt Gingrich 43% / 38% {+5%}
• Tim Pawlenty 29% / 25% {+4%}
• Donald Trump 41% / 38% {+3%}
• Fred Karger 3% / 14% {-11%}
• Jon Huntsman 8% / 20% {-12%}
• Gary Johnson 2% / 15% {-13%}
• Buddy Roemer 4% / 18% {-14%}

Among Non-Birthers (Believe Obama WAS Born in U.S.)

• Jeb Bush 54% / 21% {+33%}
• Chris Christie 49% / 16% {+33%}
• Mitt Romney 59% / 28% {+31%}
• Paul Ryan 43% / 16% {+27%}
• Rudy Giuliani 53% / 28% {+25%}
• Herman Cain 43% / 20% {+23%}
• Michele Bachmann 43% / 22% {+21%}
• Tim Pawlenty 39% / 25% {+14%}
• Rick Perry 28% / 14% {+14%}
• Rick Santorum 33% / 22% {+11%}
• Ron Paul 38% / 37% {+1%}
• Sarah Palin 47% / 46% {+1%}
• Jon Huntsman 13% / 23% {-10%}
• Fred Karger 3% / 14% {-11%}
• Buddy Roemer 5% / 17% {-12%}
• Gary Johnson 3% / 15% {-12%}
• Newt Gingrich 33% / 51% {-18%}
• Donald Trump 26% / 62% {-36%}

Among Tea Party Members

• Sarah Palin 81% [84%] / 14% [11%] {+67%}
• Michele Bachmann 63% [49%] / 9% [9%] {+54%}
• Chris Christie 58% / 7% {+51%}
• Jeb Bush 63% / 14% {+49%}
• Paul Ryan 55% / 8% {+47%}
• Herman Cain 51% [16%] / 15% [5%] {+36%}
• Rick Santorum 42% [30%] / 13% [5%] {+29%}
• Rudy Giuliani 55% [61%] / 27% [19%] {+28%}
• Mitt Romney 58% [63%] / 30% [22%] {+28%}
• Rick Perry 36% / 10% {+26%}
• Ron Paul 47% [63%] / 28% [8%] {+19%}
• Tim Pawlenty 39% [33%] / 21% [5%] {+18%}
• Newt Gingrich 48% [68%] / 40% [16%] {+8%}
• Donald Trump 41% / 40% {+1%}
• Fred Karger 5% / 13% {-8%}
• Jon Huntsman 11% [12%] / 22% [5%] {-11%}
• Gary Johnson 5% / 17% {-12%}
• Buddy Roemer 4% / 17% {-13%}

Among Non-Tea Party Republicans

• Jeb Bush 52% / 19% {+33%}
• Mitt Romney 57% [60%] / 27% [21%] {+30%}
• Rudy Giuliani 53% [58%] / 27% [21%] {+26%}
• Chris Christie 40% / 16% {+24%}
• Paul Ryan 33% / 16% {+17%}
• Herman Cain 37% [9%] / 24% [6%] {+13%}
• Michele Bachmann 33% [24%] / 23% [17%] {+10%}
• Rick Perry 19% / 13% {+6%}
• Rick Santorum 26% [24%] / 22% [9%] {+4%}
• Tim Pawlenty 32% [29%] / 30% [7%] {+2%}
• Ron Paul 35% [38%] / 35% [27%] {0%}
• Sarah Palin 45% [48%] / 49% [39%] {-4%}
• Jon Huntsman 10% [8%] / 21% [5%] {-11%}
• Fred Karger 2% / 16% {-14%}
• Gary Johnson 1% / 15% {-14%}
• Buddy Roemer 4% / 19% {-15%}
• Newt Gingrich 33% [46%] / 49% [32%] {-16%}
• Donald Trump 25% / 60% {-35%}

Survey of 1,000 usual South Carolina Republican primary voters was conducted June 2-5, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 78% [81%] (77%) Republican; 19% [18%] (20%) Independent/Other; 3% [0%] (3%) Democrat. Political ideology: 41% Very conservative; 36% Somewhat conservative; 17% Moderate; 3% Somewhat liberal; 3% Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted January 28-30, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 22-23, 2010 are in parentheses.