Poll Watch: PPP (D) Iowa 2012 Republican Caucus Survey

PPP (D) Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Survey

If the candidates for President next year were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for?

• Rick Perry 21%
• Mitt Romney 18% (21%) {25%}
• Michele Bachmann 15% (11%) {10%}
• Ron Paul 12% (8%) {15%}
• Sarah Palin 10% (15%) {15%}
• Newt Gingrich 7% (12%) {15%}
• Herman Cain 6% (15%)
• Rick Santorum 5%
• Jon Huntsman 3% (0%)
• Someone Else/Undecided 4% (8%) {11%}

If Sarah Palin didn’t run, and the candidates were just Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum. Who would you vote for?

• Rick Perry 22%
• Mitt Romney 19% (26%) {28%}
• Michele Bachmann 18% (14%) {15%}
• Ron Paul 16% (11%) {16%}
• Herman Cain 7% (16%)
• Rick Santorum 5%
• Newt Gingrich 5% (15%) {19%}
• Jon Huntsman 3% (1%)
• Someone Else/Undecided 5% (8%) {12%}

If the Republican Presidential race came down to just Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

• Rick Perry 34%
• Mitt Romney 28%
• Michele Bachmann 24%

If the Republican Presidential race came down to just Michele Bachmann and Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

• Michele Bachmann 44% (38%)
• Mitt Romney 42% (46%)

If the Republican Presidential race came down to just Rick Perry and Mitt Romney, who would
you vote for?

• Rick Perry 48%
• Mitt Romney 30%

If the Republican Presidential race came down to just Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry, who would you vote for?

• Rick Perry 51%
• Michele Bachmann 27%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rick Perry 56% (21%) / 24% (16%) {+32%}
• Ron Paul 53% (42%) {55%} [47%] / 29% (29%) {17%} [23%] {+24%}
• Rick Santorum 44% (29%) {27%} [28%] / 22% (18%) {11%} [9%] {+22%}
• Chris Christie 43% (42%) / 21% (12%) {+22%}
• Paul Ryan 38% (42%) / 21% (14%) {+17%}
• Sarah Palin 52% (59%) {58%} [60%] / 36% (31%) {29%} [29%] {+16%}
• Michele Bachmann 47% (53%) {49%} / 35% (16%) {13%} {+12%}
• Rudy Giuliani 43% (49%) {48%} [49%] / 34% (31%) {25%} [30%] {+9%}
• Mitt Romney 45% (51%) {55%} [57%] / 38% (34%) {25%} [26%] {+7%}
• Herman Cain 42% (38%) {15%} / 35% (24%) {9%} {+7%}
• Newt Gingrich 42% (39%) {47%} [53%] / 44% (41%) {26%} [27%] {-2%}
• Fred Karger 3% (2%) / 25% (17%) {-22%}
• Gary Johnson 5% (4%) {2%} / 31% (18%) {8%} {-26%}
• Jon Huntsman 13% (7%) {5%} / 40% (23%) {8%} {-27%}
• Buddy Roemer 1% (4%) {2%} / 34% (21%) {10%} {-33%}

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 33% (31%) {28%}
• No 51% (48%) {48%}

Do you think Barack Obama was born in the United States?

• Yes 48% (42%) {26%}
• No 32% (36%) {48%}
• Not sure 20% (23%) {26%}

Do you believe in evolution or not?

• Believe in evolution 35%
• Do not 48%

Do you believe in global warming or not?

• Believe in global warming 21%
• Do not 66%

Survey of 317 usual Iowa Republican primary voters was conducted August 19-21, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points.  Political ideology: 38% (41%) {44%} Very conservative; 34% (37%) {33%} Somewhat conservative; 21% (14%) {17%} Moderate; 3% (6%) {4%} Somewhat liberal; 3% (2%) {2%} Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted May 27-30, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 15-17, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 7-9, 2011 are in square brackets.

Inside the numbers:

• Romney up 12 on Perry with evolution believers, 22 with global warming believers.
• 32% of Iowa Republicans are still birthers. Perry leads Romney by 12 points with them.
• 48% of Iowa Republicans don't believe in evolution. Perry leads Romney by 17 points with them.
• 66% of Iowa Republicans don't believe in global warming. Perry leads Romney by 15 points with them.
• Huge divide in the Iowa GOP base. Among Tea Partiers Perry leads Romney 32-6. Among non-Tea Partiers Romney leads Perry 30-16.