Poll Watch: PPP (D) Iowa 2012 Republican Caucus Survey

PPP (D) Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Poll

• Ron Paul 23% [21%] (18%) {10%} [16%] (11%) {16%}
• Mitt Romney 20% [16%] (16%) {22%} [19%] (26%) {28%}
• Newt Gingrich 14% [22%] (27%) {8%} [5%] (15%) {19%}
• Michele Bachmann 10% [11%] (13%) {8%} [18%] (14%) {15%}
• Rick Perry 10% [9%] (9%) {9%} [22%]
• Rick Santorum 10% [8%] (6%) {5%} [5%]
• Jon Huntsman 4% [5%] (4%) {1%} [3%] (1%)
• Gary Johnson 2% [1%] (1%) {1%}
• Someone else/Not sure 7% [7%] (7%) {5%} [5%] (8%) {12%}

Among Republicans

• Mitt Romney 22%  
  
• Ron Paul 19% 
• Newt Gingrich 17%  
• Rick Perry 11% 
• Rick Santorum 10%
• Michele Bachmann 10%
  
• Jon Huntsman 2%
• Gary Johnson 2%
• Someone else/Not sure 7%

Among Independents

• Ron Paul 34%  
• Mitt Romney 13%  
  
• Jon Huntsman 11% 
• Michele Bachmann 10% 
• Rick Santorum 9%
• Rick Perry 7% 
  
• Newt Gingrich 6%  
• Gary Johnson 4%
• Someone else/Not sure 6%

Very Conservative

• Newt Gingrich 17%
• Ron Paul 16%
• Michele Bachmann 15%
• Rick Perry 15%
• Mitt Romney 14% 
• Rick Santorum 13%
• Jon Huntsman 1%
• Gary Johnson 1%
• Someone else/Not sure 7% 

Somewhat Conservative

• Mitt Romney 25%  
• Ron Paul 20%
• Newt Gingrich 16% 
• Rick Santorum 11%
• Rick Perry 10%
• Michele Bachmann 4%
• Jon Huntsman 3%
• Gary Johnson 2%
• Someone else/Not sure 9% 

Moderate

• Ron Paul 35% 
• Mitt Romney 25%  
  
• Michele Bachmann 12% 
• Jon Huntsman 9%
• Newt Gingrich 7% 
  
• Gary Johnson 4%
• Rick Perry 3%
• Rick Santorum 1%
• Someone else/Not sure 4%

Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?

• Strongly committed to that candidate 63% [60%] (55%)
• Might end up supporting someone else 37% [40%] (45%)

Second Choice 

• Michele Bachmann 15% [11%] (10%) {11%}
• Rick Perry 14% [10%] (11%) {12%}
• Newt Gingrich 13% [14%] (17%) {17%}
• Mitt Romney 12% [13%] (13%) {11%}
• Rick Santorum 9% [8%] (9%) {5%}
• Ron Paul 9% [12%] (10%) {9%}
• Jon Huntsman 7% [7%] (5%) {3%}
• Gary Johnson 1% [1%] (2%) {1%}
• Someone else/Not sure 18% [25%] (22%) {15%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rick Santorum 52% [49%] (51%) {46%} [44%] (29%) {27%} [28%] / 32% [33%] (28%) {17%} [22%] (18%) {11%} [9%] {+20%}
• Michele Bachmann 52% [55%] (56%) {44%} [47%] (53%) {49%} / 34% [37%] (35%) {38%} [35%] (16%) {13%} {+18%}
• Ron Paul 54% [61%] (52%) {37%} [53%] (42%) {55%} [47%] / 38% [31%] (38%) {46%} [29%] (29%) {17%} [23%] {+16%}
• Mitt Romney 49% [48%] (49%) {51%} [45%] (51%) {55%} [57%] / 40% [44%] (45%) {36%} [38%] (34%) {25%} [26%] {+9%}
• Rick Perry 48% [43%] (44%) {38%} [56%] (21%) / 40% [47%] (46%) {41%} [24%] (16%) {+8%}
• Newt Gingrich 46% [52%] (62%) {56%} [42%] (39%) {47%} [53%] / 47% [40%] (31%) {32%} [44%] (41%) {26%} [27%] {-1%}
• Jon Huntsman 32% [28%] (30%) {18%} [13%] (7%) {5%} / 38% [43%] (45%) {28%} [40%] (23%) {8%} {-6%}

Which of the Republican candidates do you think has the best chance of defeating Barack Obama?

• Mitt Romney 25% [21%] (23%)5
• Newt Gingrich 17% [30%] (33%)
• Ron Paul 16% [14%] (9%)
• Michele Bachmann 7% [5%] (7%)
• Rick Perry 6% [7%] (7%)
• Rick Santorum 3% [3%] (2%)
• Jon Huntsman 3% [2%] (3%)
• Gary Johnson 2% [1%] (1%)
• Someone else/Not sure 20% [16%] (14%)

Who do you think is going to win the Iowa caucuses?

• Newt Gingrich 20%
• Ron Paul 20%
• Mitt Romney 19%
• Michele Bachmann 6%
• Rick Perry 3%
• Jon Huntsman 2%
• Rick Santorum 2%
• Gary Johnson 1%
• Someone else/Not sure 27%

Who do you think has run the strongest campaign in Iowa?

• Ron Paul 22%
• Michele Bachmann 19%
• Newt Gingrich 8%
• Rick Santorum 8%
• Rick Perry 7%
• Mitt Romney 5%
• Gary Johnson 2%
• Jon Huntsman 1%
• Someone else/Not sure 28%

Do you think that Ron Paul has strong principles, or not?

• He does 73%
• He does not 10%

Do you think that Mitt Romney has strong principles, or not?

• He does 50%
• He does not 31%

Do you think that Newt Gingrich has strong principles, or not?

• He does 36%
• He does not 43%

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 26% [27%] (32%) {29%} [33%] (31%) {28%}
• No 61% [61%] (58%) {52%} [51%] (48%) {48%}

What is more important to you when deciding who to vote for: a candidate’s ability to beat Barack Obama in the general election, or their positions on the issues?

• A candidate's ability to beat Obama 32% [32%] (34%)
• Their issue positions 56% [56%] (57%)

Do you think Barack Obama was born in the United States?

• Yes 47% {37%} [48%] (42%) {26%}
• No 31% {42%} [32%] (36%) {48%}
• Not sure 21% {22%} [20%] (23%) {26%}

Do you support or oppose ethanol subsidies?

• Support 33%
• Oppose 32%
• Not sure 35%

Survey of 597 likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers was conducted December 16-18, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percentage points.  Party ID: 75% [78%] (80%) Republican; 19% [17%] (14%) Independent/Other; 5% [4%] (6%) Democrat.  Political ideology: 36% [42%] (40%) {36%} [38%] (41%) {44%} Very conservative; 36% [35%] (37%) {36%} [34%] (37%) {33%} Somewhat conservative; 19% [17%] (15%) {21%} [21%] (14%) {17%} Moderate;  6% [3%] (5%) {4%} [3%] (6%) {4%} Somewhat liberal; 3% [4%] (3%) {3%} [3%] (2%) {2%} Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted December 11-13, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 3-5, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 7-10, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 19-21, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 27-30, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 15-17, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 7-9, 2011are in square brackets.