Poll Watch: PPP (D) Iowa 2012 Republican Caucus Survey

PPP (D) Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Poll

• Ron Paul 24% {23%} [21%] (18%) {10%} [16%] (11%) {16%}
• Mitt Romney 20% {20%} [16%] (16%) {22%} [19%] (26%) {28%}
• Newt Gingrich 13% {14%} [22%] (27%) {8%} [5%] (15%) {19%}
• Michele Bachmann 11% {10%} [11%] (13%) {8%} [18%] (14%) {15%}
• Rick Perry 10% {10%} [9%] (9%) {9%} [22%]
• Rick Santorum 10% {10%} [8%] (6%) {5%} [5%]
• Jon Huntsman 4% {4%} [5%] (4%) {1%} [3%] (1%)
• Buddy Roemer 2%
• Someone else/Not sure 5% {7%} [7%] (7%) {5%} [5%] (8%) {12%}

Among Republicans 

• Mitt Romney 22% {22%} [15%] (16%) 
• Ron Paul 20% {19%} [17%] (15%)
• Newt Gingrich 13% {17%} [25%] (29%) 
• Rick Perry 12% {11%} [10%] (10%)
• Rick Santorum 11% {10%} [8%] (7%)
• Michele Bachmann 10% {10%} [12%] (13%)
• Jon Huntsman 4% {2%} [3%] (3%)
• Buddy Roemer 1%
• Someone else/Not sure 7% {7%} [8%] (6%)

Among Independents

• Ron Paul 46% {34%} [35%] (34%) 
• Michele Bachmann 13% {10%} [8%] (7%) 
• Mitt Romney 11% {13%} [15%] (11%)  
• Rick Santorum 9% {9%} [6%] (1%)
• Newt Gingrich 8% {6%} [12%] (21%)  
• Jon Huntsman 5% {11%} [13%] (7%)
• Rick Perry 4% {7%} [6%] (7%)
• Buddy Roemer 3%
• Someone else/Not sure 2% {6%} [3%] (9%)

Regularly Watch Fox News

• Mitt Romney 27%
• Newt Gingrich 16%
• Michele Bachmann 15%
• Ron Paul 12%
• Rick Santorum 11%
• Rick Perry 10%
• Jon Huntsman 2%
• Buddy Roemer 2%
• Someone else/Not sure 6%

Do NOT Regularly Watch Fox News

• Ron Paul 38% 
• Mitt Romney 13%
• Rick Santorum 10%
• Newt Gingrich 9%
• Rick Perry 9%
• Michele Bachmann 7%
• Jon Huntsman 6%
• Buddy Roemer 2%
• Someone else/Not sure 5%

Evangelicals

• Ron Paul 21% 
• Mitt Romney 16%
• Michele Bachmann 15% 
• Rick Santorum 15%
• Newt Gingrich 14%
• Rick Perry 12%
• Jon Huntsman 1%
• Buddy Roemer 0%
• Someone else/Not sure 6%

Non-Evangelicals

• Ron Paul 27%
• Mitt Romney 24%
• Newt Gingrich 11%
• Michele Bachmann 8%
• Rick Perry 8%
• Rick Santorum 7%
• Jon Huntsman 7%
• Buddy Roemer 4%
• Someone else/Not sure 5%

Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?

• Strongly committed to that candidate 72% {63%} [60%] (55%)
• Might end up supporting someone else 28% {37%} [40%] (45%)

Among Those Strongly Committed to That Candidate

• Ron Paul 28% {29%} [29%] (22%)
  
• Mitt Romney 21% {23%} [18%] (20%)
• Michele Bachmann 14% {9%} [11%] (15%)
• Newt Gingrich 12% {14%} [21%] (25%)
• Rick Santorum 10% {9%} [5%] (5%)
• Rick Perry 9% {9%} [9%] (7%)
• Jon Huntsman 5% {4%} [4%] (5%)
• Buddy Roemer 1% 

Among Those Who Might End Up Supporting Someone Else

• Mitt Romney 22% {19%} [14%] (13%)
  
• Ron Paul 21% {18%} [13%] (16%)
• Newt Gingrich 17% {18%} [28%] (32%)
• Rick Santorum 14% {12%} [13%] (7%)
• Rick Perry 13% {14%} [12%] (14%)
• Michele Bachmann 7% {13%} [13%] (14%)
  
• Buddy Roemer 4% 
• Jon Huntsman 3% {4%} [6%] (4%)

Second Choice 

• Rick Santorum 14% {9%} [8%] (9%) {5%}
• Newt Gingrich 12% {13%} [14%] (17%) {17%}
• Michele Bachmann 12% {15%} [11%] (10%) {11%}
• Rick Perry 11% {14%} [10%] (11%) {12%}
• Mitt Romney 10% {12%} [13%] (13%) {11%}
• Ron Paul 9% {9%} [12%] (10%) {9%}
• Jon Huntsman 7% {7%} [7%] (5%) {3%}
• Someone else/Not sure 25% {18%} [25%] (22%) {15%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rick Santorum 56% {52%} [49%] (51%) {46%} [44%] (29%) {27%} [28%] / 29% {32%} [33%] (28%) {17%} [22%] (18%) {11%} [9%] {+27%}
• Michele Bachmann 53% {52%} [55%] (56%) {44%} [47%] (53%) {49%} / 37% {34%} [37%] (35%) {38%} [35%] (16%) {13%} {+16%}
• Ron Paul 53% {54%} [61%] (52%) {37%} [53%] (42%) {55%} [47%] / 40% {38%} [31%] (38%) {46%} [29%] (29%) {17%} [23%] {+13%}
• Rick Perry 48% {48%} [43%] (44%) {38%} [56%] (21%) / 40% {40%} [47%] (46%) {41%} [24%] (16%) {+8%}
• Mitt Romney 44% {49%} [48%] (49%) {51%} [45%] (51%) {55%} [57%] / 47% {40%} [44%] (45%) {36%} [38%] (34%) {25%} [26%] {-3%}
• Jon Huntsman 31% {32%} [28%] (30%) {18%} [13%] (7%) {5%} / 43% {38%} [43%] (45%) {28%} [40%] (23%) {8%} {-12%}
• Newt Gingrich 37% {46%} [52%] (62%) {56%} [42%] (39%) {47%} [53%] / 54% {47%} [40%] (31%) {32%} [44%] (41%) {26%} [27%] {-17%}

Which of the Republican candidates do you think has the best chance of defeating Barack Obama?

• Mitt Romney 25% {25%} [21%] (23%)
• Ron Paul 14% {16%} [14%] (9%)
• Newt Gingrich 13% {17%} [30%] (33%)
• Michele Bachmann 8% {7%} [5%] (7%)
• Rick Perry 8% {6%} [7%] (7%)
• Rick Santorum 5% {3%} [3%] (2%)
• Jon Huntsman 4% {3%} [2%] (3%)
• Buddy Roemer 1%
• Someone else/Not sure 23% {20%} [16%] (14%)

Who do you think is going to win the Iowa caucuses?

• Ron Paul 29% {20%}
• Mitt Romney 15% {19%}
• Newt Gingrich 8% {20%}
• Michele Bachmann 7% {6%}
• Rick Santorum 5% {2%}
• Rick Perry 4% {3%}
• Jon Huntsman 1% {2%}
• Buddy Roemer 1%
• Someone else/Not sure 30% {27%}

Who do you think has run the strongest campaign in Iowa?

• Ron Paul 26% {22%}
• Michele Bachmann 18% {19%}
• Rick Santorum 10% {8%}
• Rick Perry 7% {7%}
• Newt Gingrich 5% {8%}
• Mitt Romney 5% {5%}
• Jon Huntsman 1% {1%}
• Buddy Roemer 1%
• Someone else/Not sure 28% {28%}

Do you think that Ron Paul has strong principles, or not?

• He does 68% {73%}
• He does not 14% {10%}

Do you think that Mitt Romney has strong principles, or not?

• He does 42% {50%}
• He does not 37% {31%}

Do you think that Newt Gingrich has strong principles, or not?

• He does 32% {36%}
• He does not 45% {43%}

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 26% {26%} [27%] (32%) {29%} [33%] (31%) {28%}
• No 64% {61%} [61%] (58%) {52%} [51%] (48%) {48%}

What is more important to you when deciding who to vote for: a candidate’s ability to beat Barack Obama in the general election, or their positions on the issues?

• A candidate's ability to beat Obama 30% {32%} [32%] (34%)
• Their issue positions 58% {56%} [56%] (57%)

Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?

• Are 47%
• Are not 53%

Do you regularly watch Fox News, or not?

• Do 52%
• Do not 48%

Survey of 565 likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers was conducted December 26-27, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.  Party ID: 76% {75%} [78%] (80%) Republican; 16% {19%} [17%] (14%) Independent/Other; 8% {5%} [4%] (6%) Democrat.  Political ideology: 37% {36%} [42%] (40%) {36%} [38%] (41%) {44%} Very conservative; 33% {36%} [35%] (37%) {36%} [34%] (37%) {33%} Somewhat conservative; 21% {19%} [17%] (15%) {21%} [21%] (14%) {17%} Moderate; 5% {6%} [3%] (5%) {4%} [3%] (6%) {4%} Somewhat liberal; 4% {3%} [4%] (3%) {3%} [3%] (2%) {2%} Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted December 16-18, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 11-13, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 3-5, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 7-10, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 19-21, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 27-30, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 15-17, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 7-9, 2011are in square brackets.