Poll Watch: American Research Group Iowa 2012 Republican Caucus Survey

ARG Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Poll

• Mitt Romney 22% {20%} [17%] (20%) {21%} [18%] (17%)
• Newt Gingrich 17% {19%} [22%] (27%) {8%} [8%] (12%)
• Ron Paul 16% {21%} [17%] (16%) {12%} [14%] (3%)  
• Rick Santorum 11% {4%} [7%] (6%) {2%} [5%] (2%)
• Rick Perry 9% {9%} [13%] (5%) {14%} [2%] 
• Michele Bachmann 8% {8%} [7%] (6%) {15%} [21%] (9%)
• Jon Huntsman 6% {6%} [5%] (3%) {1%} [3%] (0%)
• Buddy Roemer 1% {1%} [0%] (0%) {1%} [0%] (0%)
• Other 1% {0%} [1%] (0%) {1%} [2%]
• Undecided 9% {12%} [12%] (11%) {15%} [10%] (8%)

Among Likely GOP Caucus-Goers Saying They Will Definitely Participate in the Caucus (81%)

• Mitt Romney 23% {20%}
• Newt Gingrich 19% {22%}
  
• Ron Paul 16% {17%}
• Rick Santorum 10% {5%}
• Rick Perry 8% {10%}
• Michele Bachmann 8% {8%}
• Jon Huntsman 5% {5%}
• Buddy Roemer 1% {1%}
• Other 1% {0%}
• Undecided 9% {12%}

Among Republicans (79%)

• Mitt Romney 23% {21%}
• Newt Gingrich 19% {20%}
• Rick Santorum 12% {5%}
• Ron Paul 12% {17%}
• Michele Bachmann 9% {10%}
• Rick Perry 8% {9%}
• Jon Huntsman 6% {5%}
• Buddy Roemer 1% {1%}
• Other 1% {0%}
• Undecided 9% {12%}

Among Independents (21%)

• Ron Paul 30% {33%}
• Mitt Romney 22% {20%}
• Newt Gingrich 12% {17%}
• Rick Perry 11% {9%}
• Michele Bachmann 6% {1%}
• Rick Santorum 6% {0%}
• Jon Huntsman 6% {8%} 
• Buddy Roemer 0% {1%} 
• Other 1% {0%}
• Undecided 9% {13%}

Among Tea Party Supporters (35%)

• Mitt Romney 26% {16%}
• Newt Gingrich 25% {29%}
• Ron Paul 16% {17%}
• Michele Bachmann 10% {11%}
• Rick Perry 9% {11%}
• Rick Santorum 7% {6%}
• Jon Huntsman 0% {0%}
• Buddy Roemer 0% {0%}
• Other 0% {0%}
• Undecided 7% {10%}

Among Non-Tea Party Republican Caucus-Goers (65%)

• Mitt Romney 20% {22%}
• Ron Paul 16% {22%}
• Newt Gingrich 14% {15%}
• Rick Santorum 13% {3%} 
• Jon Huntsman 9% {8%}
• Rick Perry 8% {8%}
• Michele Bachmann 7% {7%}
• Buddy Roemer 1% {2%}
• Other 2% {0%}
• Undecided 10% {13%}

Survey 600 of likely Republican caucus-goers (473 Republicans, 123 Independents, and 4 Democrats) was conducted December 26-28, 2011. The margin of error is ± 4 percentage points. Party ID: 79% {78%} Republican; 21% {22%} Independent. Preference by Likely to Vote: Definite 81% {83%}; Probably 19% {17%}.  Preference by Tea Party support: Supporter 35% {32%}; Not/Undecided 65% {42%}.  Results from the poll conducted December 19-22, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 8-11, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 17-23, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 22-27, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 5-11, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 12-19, 2011 are in parentheses.