Poll Watch: Rasmussen Iowa 2012 Republican Caucus Survey

Rasmussen Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Poll

• Mitt Romney 23% {25%} [23%] (19%) {21%} [17%] (21%)  
• Ron Paul 22% {20%} [18%] (10%) {10%} [14%] (16%) 
• Rick Santorum 16% {10%} [6%] (5%) {4%} [4%] 
• Newt Gingrich 13% {17%} [20%] (32%) {9%} [2%] (5%) 
• Rick Perry 13% {10%} [10%] (6%) {7%} [29%] (12%)
• Michele Bachmann 5% {6%} [9%] (6%) {8%} [18%] (22%)
• Jon Huntsman 3% {4%} [5%] (2%) {2%} [3%] (2%)

Survey of 750 likely Iowa Republican Caucus participants was conducted December 28, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted December 19, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 13, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 15, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 19, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 31, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 4, 2011 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Romney leads among Republican voters with 26% support, followed by Santorum at 19%. Gingrich and Paul each attract 15% support from Republican voters while Perry earns 12%.

Among non-Republicans who plan to participate, Paul dominates with 38% of the vote. Romney is a distant second among non-Republicans at 15% followed by Perry at 14%.

Forty-one percent (41%) of all caucus participants say they still could change their minds, and six percent (6%) more have no first preference, suggesting that much could still change in the next five days..

Among voters who could still change their minds, Romney remains the leading second choice with 20% support. Perry and Santorum are next with 17% support each, followed by Gingrich and Paul who both earn 12% of the vote. Bachmann is the second choice of nine percent (9%) of those caucus participants who could change their mind, while three percent (3%) would opt for Huntsman.

Sixty-one percent (61%) have a favorable opinion of Santorum, 60% say the same of Romney and 58% offer a positive view of Perry earn the highest favorable ratings from likely caucus-goers. Just 49% have a positive opinion of Paul and only 45% say the same of Gingrich.

At the other extreme, 27% have a Very Unfavorable opinion of Gingrich while 24% say the same of Paul. Those figures are roughly double the number with highly negative views of Romney and Santorum.

Romney also continues to be the GOP candidate that caucus-goers consider the strongest potential challenger against President Obama. He now outdistances Gingrich who is considered the second strongest contender by a two-to-one margin – 37% to 19%. Two weeks ago, Romney and Gingrich ran even on this question.

Paul and Bachmann are viewed by 25% as the two weakest potential challengers.