Poll Watch: Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. Iowa 2012 Republican Caucus Survey

Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Poll

December 27-30, 2011

• Mitt Romney 24% (16%) {18%} [22%] (23%)
• Ron Paul 22% (18%) {19%} [12%] (7%) 
• Rick Santorum 15% (6%) {3%} [5%] (4%)
• Newt Gingrich 12% (25%) {17%} [7%] (7%)   
• Rick Perry 11% (6%) {7%} [7%]
• Michele Bachmann 7% (8%) {5%} [8%] (22%)
• Jon Huntsman 2% (2%) {1%} [1%] (2%)

December 29-30, 2011 

• Mitt Romney 24%
• Rick Santorum 21%
• Ron Paul 18%

December 27, 2011

• Ron Paul 29%
• Mitt Romney 22%
• Newt Gingrich 12%
• Rick Perry 12% 
• Rick Santorum 10%
  
• Michele Bachmann 6%

December 28, 2011

• Mitt Romney 26%
• Ron Paul 22%
• Newt Gingrich 15%
• Rick Santorum 11%
• Rick Perry 11%
• Michele Bachmann 7%

December 29, 2011

• Mitt Romney 24%
• Ron Paul 20%
• Rick Santorum 19%
• Newt Gingrich 11%
• Rick Perry 10%
• Michele Bachmann 6%

December 30, 2011

• Mitt Romney 23%
• Rick Santorum 22%
• Ron Paul 16%
• Newt Gingrich 11%
• Rick Perry 10%
• Michele Bachmann 9%

Is your mind made up to support ____________________ or could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice?

• Mind is made up 51% (28%) {29%}
• Could be persuaded 41% (60%) {60%}

On caucus night when you have a chance to talk to your neighbors, is there a good chance, a small chance, or no chance you would hear something in the room that would persuade you to vote for a candidate other than [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE]?

• Good chance 11%
• Small chance 40%
• No chance 40%
• Not sure 2%
• No first choice candidate 7%

Second Choice

• Rick Santorum 15% (4%) {6%}
• Rick Perry 15% (12%) {11%} 
• Mitt Romney 13% (15%) {14%} 
• Michele Bachmann 12% (11%) {7%}
• Newt Gingrich 11% (18%) {15%}
• Ron Paul 11% (7%) {9%}  
• Jon Huntsman 2% (2%) {2%}

Like Least

• Newt Gingrich 23% (6%)
• Ron Paul 21% (13%)
• Michele Bachmann 14% (15%) 
• Mitt Romney 12% (15%)  
• Jon Huntsman 7% (7%) 
• Rick Perry 6% (10%)
• Rick Santorum 3% (4%)

I’d like to know how enthusiastically you would support each of the candidates if he were to win the nomination—would you be very enthusiastic, okay with the choice, or would you not support the candidate in the general election?

Mitt Romney

• Very enthusiastic 33%
• Okay with choice 45%
• Would not support 20%

Ron Paul

• Very enthusiastic 33%
  
• Okay with choice 40%
  
• Would not support 25%

Newt Gingrich

• Very enthusiastic 24%
  
• Okay with choice 44%
  
• Would not support 30%

Regardless of which candidate you support as your first choice, which one would you say is:

The most knowledgeable

• Newt Gingrich 41% 
• Ron Paul 17%
• Mitt Romney 16%
• Rick Santorum 6%
• Rick Perry 4%
• Michele Bachmann 4%
• Jon Huntsman 1%

The best able to bring about real change

• Mitt Romney 23% (14%)
• Ron Paul 21% (18%)
• Newt Gingrich (27%) 
• Rick Perry 10% (7%)
• Rick Santorum 10% (4%)
• Michele Bachmann 6% (8%)
• Jon Huntsman 1% (2%)

The most electable in the general election

• Mitt Romney 48% (38%)
• Newt Gingrich 13% (22%)
• Ron Paul 12% (6%)
• Rick Perry 9% (10%)
• Rick Santorum 7% (2%)
• Michele Bachmann 3% (3%)
• Jon Huntsman 0% (1%)

Survey of 602 likely Republican caucus-goers was conducted December 27-30, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  In the final two days of polling, 302 likely caucus-goers (151 on 12/29, and 151 on 12/30) were interviewed, with a margin of error of +/- 5.6 percentage points.  Party ID: 75% Republican; 22% Independent; 1% Democrat.  Ideology: 41% Mostly conservative; 34% Very conservative; 22% Moderate; 2% Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted November 27-30, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 10-12, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 23-26, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 19-22, 2011 are in parentheses. Click here to view Nate Silver's Iowa Caucus projections.