Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2012 South Carolina Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) 2012 South Carolina GOP Primary Survey

• Mitt Romney 27% [20%] (24%)
• Sarah Palin 18% [18%] (22%)
• Herman Cain 12%
• Newt Gingrich 12% [13%] (25%)
• Michele Bachmann 9%
• Ron Paul 7% [7%] (7%)
• Tim Pawlenty 4% [4%]
• Jon Huntsman 2%
• Someone else/Undecided 9% [8%]

If Sarah Palin didn’t run and the choices were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney who would you most like to see as the nominee?

• Mitt Romney 30%
• Herman Cain 15%
• Newt Gingrich 15%
• Michele Bachmann 13%
• Ron Paul 10%
• Tim Pawlenty 5%
• Jon Huntsman 2%
• Someone else/Undecided 11%

What if Jim DeMint ran for President and the candidates were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Jim DeMint, Newt Gingrich, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney.  Who would you vote for?

• Jim DeMint 35% [24%] (21%)
• Mitt Romney 21% [17%] (16%)
• Sarah Palin 11% [12%] (15%)
• Herman Cain 8%
• Newt Gingrich 6% [10%] (16%)
• Michele Bachmann 5%
• Ron Paul 4% [4%] (7%)
• Tim Pawlenty 2% [3%]
• Someone else/Undecided 8% [8%]

If the Republican nomination contest came down to Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?

• Mitt Romney 50%
• Sarah Palin 38%

If the Republican nomination contest came down to Mitt Romney and Herman Cain, who would you vote for?

• Mitt Romney 53%
• Herman Cain 29%

If the Republican nomination contest came down to Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?

• Mitt Romney 54%
• Michele Bachmann 29%

If the Republican nomination contest came down to Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty, who would you vote for?

• Mitt Romney 55%
• Tim Pawlenty 23%

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 34% [32%]
• No 46% [52%]

Do you think Barack Obama was born in the United States?

• Yes 42%
• No 37%
• Not sure 21%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Jeb Bush 56% / 15% {+41%}
• Chris Christie 46% / 11% {+35%}
• Paul Ryan 41% / 11% {+30%}
• Rudy Giuliani 54% [59%] / 25% [20%] {+29%}
• Mitt Romney 56% [60%] / 27% [22%] {+29%}
• Michele Bachmann 45% [32%] / 16% [13%] {+29%}
• Sarah Palin 60% [61%] / 33% [28%] {+27%}
• Herman Cain 41% [11%] / 20% [5%] {+21%}
• Rick Santorum 31% [25%] / 16% [7%] {+15%}
• Rick Perry 24% / 11% {+13%}
• Tim Pawlenty 33% [28%] / 24% [6%] {+9%}
• Ron Paul 38% [47%] / 31% [19%] {+7%}
• Newt Gingrich 37% [54%] / 44% [25%] {-7%}
• Jon Huntsman 10% [9%] / 20% [4%] {-10%}
• Fred Karger 3% / 13% {-10%}
• Buddy Roemer 4% / 16% {-12%}
• Gary Johnson 2% / 14% {-12%}
• Donald Trump 32% / 50% {-18%}

Among Republicans

• Jeb Bush 60% / 12% {+48%}
• Chris Christie 47% / 9% {+38%}
• Mitt Romney 60% [62%] / 24% [20%] {+36%}
• Sarah Palin 64% [65%] / 29% [24%] {+35%}
• Michele Bachmann 47% [32%] / 13% [13%] {+34%}
• Paul Ryan 43% / 9% {+34%}
• Rudy Giuliani 56% [59%] / 24% [19%] {+32%}
• Herman Cain 40% [10%] / 19% [4%] {+21%}
• Rick Santorum 32% [27%] / 14% [5%] {+18%}
• Rick Perry 24% / 10% {+14%}
• Tim Pawlenty 33% [29%] / 23% [4%] {+10%}
• Ron Paul 36% [47%] / 31% [17%] {+5%}
• Newt Gingrich 40% [57%] / 40% [22%] {0%}
• Jon Huntsman 10% [7%] / 19% [3%] {-9%}
• Fred Karger 2% / 14% {-12%}
• Gary Johnson 2% / 14% {-12%}
• Buddy Roemer 3% / 16% {-13%}
• Donald Trump 33% / 49% {-16%}

Among GOP-Leaning Independents

• Chris Christie 42% / 19% {+23%}
• Herman Cain 45% [16%] / 24% [9%] {+21%}
• Paul Ryan 37% / 18% {+19%}
• Ron Paul 47% [45%] / 32% [28%] {+15%}
• Jeb Bush 43% / 29% {+14%}
• Rudy Giuliani 44% [59%] / 32% [25%] {+12%}
• Michele Bachmann 40% [31%] / 28% [16%] {+12%}
• Rick Perry 22% / 16% {+6%}
• Tim Pawlenty 33% [26%] / 31% [16%] {+2%}
• Mitt Romney 42% [52%] / 42% [32%] {0%}
• Rick Santorum 23% [16%] / 24% [18%] {-1%}
• Sarah Palin 45% [49%] / 47% [44%] {-2%}
• Fred Karger 5% / 10% {-5%}
• Buddy Roemer 5% / 15% {-10%}
• Gary Johnson 3% / 13% {-10%}
• Jon Huntsman 10% [16%] / 26% [10%] {-16%}
• Donald Trump 24% / 57% {-33%}
• Newt Gingrich 25% [42%] / 59% [37%] {-34%}

Among Very Conservative Republicans

• Sarah Palin 74% / 18% {+56%}
• Jeb Bush 64% / 11% {+53%}
• Michele Bachmann 59% / 8% {+51%}
• Chris Christie 56% / 7% {+49%}
• Paul Ryan 54% / 5% {+49%}
• Herman Cain 51% / 13% {+38%}
• Rick Santorum 41% / 11% {+30%}
• Mitt Romney 56% / 29% {+27%}
• Rick Perry 31% / 8% {+23%}
• Rudy Giuliani 50% / 29% {+21%}
• Tim Pawlenty 37% / 19% {+18%}
• Ron Paul 40% / 30% {+10%}
• Newt Gingrich 44% / 37% {+7%}
• Buddy Roemer 3% / 14% {-11%}
• Gary Johnson 2% / 14% {-12%}
• Fred Karger 1% / 13% {-12%}
• Jon Huntsman 8% / 21% {-13%}
• Donald Trump 33% / 49% {-16%}

Among Somewhat Conservative Republicans

• Jeb Bush 60% / 12% {+48%}
• Chris Christie 47% / 8% {+39%}
• Rudy Giuliani 59% / 21% {+38%}
• Mitt Romney 58% / 23% {+35%}
• Paul Ryan 40% / 8% {+32%}
• Michele Bachmann 43% / 14% {+29%}
• Sarah Palin 57% / 33% {+24%}
• Herman Cain 41% / 19% {+22%}
• Tim Pawlenty 36% / 19% {+17%}
• Rick Santorum 29% / 14% {+15%}
• Rick Perry 21% / 10% {+11%}
• Ron Paul 39% / 29% {+10%}
• Jon Huntsman 12% / 17% {-5%}
• Newt Gingrich 35% / 42% {-7%}
• Fred Karger 3% / 12% {-9%}
• Buddy Roemer 3% / 13% {-10%}
• Gary Johnson 2% / 12% {-10%}
• Donald Trump 34% / 46% {-12%}

Among Moderate Republicans

• Mitt Romney 53% [61%] / 31% [19%] {+22%}
• Rudy Giuliani 46% [62%] / 29% [18%] {+17%}
• Jeb Bush 38% / 26% {+12%}
• Chris Christie 27% / 18% {+9%}
• Ron Paul 32% [33%] / 33% [28%] {-1%}
• Paul Ryan 22% / 24% {-2%}
• Michele Bachmann 25% [9%] / 30% [20%] {-5%}
• Rick Perry 12% / 18% {-6%}
• Herman Cain 25% [5%] / 33% [10%] {-8%}
• Rick Santorum 14% [13%] / 26% [15%] {-12%}
• Jon Huntsman 9% [7%] / 21% [6%] {-12%}
• Fred Karger 3% / 15% {-12%}
• Gary Johnson 3% / 18% {-15%}
• Tim Pawlenty 23% [17%] / 39% [11%] {-16%}
• Sarah Palin 39% [40%] / 59% [49%] {-20%}
• Buddy Roemer 3% / 24% {-21%}
• Newt Gingrich 24% [36%] / 61% [40%] {-37%}
• Donald Trump 24% / 65% {-41%}

Among Men

• Jeb Bush 60% / 17% {+43%}
• Chris Christie 51% / 15% {+36%}
• Paul Ryan 48% / 15% {+33%}
• Michele Bachmann 48% [37%] / 17% [15%] {+31%}
• Mitt Romney 56% [62%] / 31% [24%] {+25%}
• Herman Cain 48% [15%] / 23% [5%] {+25%}
• Sarah Palin 57% [63%] / 36% [31%] {+21%}
• Ron Paul 47% [56%] / 29% [20%] {+18%}
• Rudy Giuliani 48% [60%] / 31% [24%] {+17%}
• Rick Santorum 34% [27%] / 21% [9%] {+13%}
• Rick Perry 27% / 14% {+13%}
• Tim Pawlenty 36% [33%] / 26% [9%] {+10%}
• Jon Huntsman 12% [12%] / 24% [6%] {-12%}
• Newt Gingrich 36% [57%] / 48% [26%] {-12%}
• Fred Karger 4% / 17% {-13%}
• Buddy Roemer 5% / 19% {-14%}
• Gary Johnson 3% / 17% {-14%}
• Donald Trump 30% / 53% {-23%}

Among Women

• Rudy Giuliani 60% [58%] / 19% [16%] {+41%}
• Jeb Bush 53% / 14% {+39%}
• Sarah Palin 63% [60%] / 29% [25%] {+34%}
• Mitt Romney 56% [59%] / 23% [20%] {+33%}
• Chris Christie 39% / 8% {+31%}
• Michele Bachmann 42% [26%] / 14% [12%] {+28%}
• Paul Ryan 34% / 7% {+27%}
• Herman Cain 34% [7%] / 17% [4%] {+17%}
• Rick Santorum 27% [22%] / 11% [5%] {+16%}
• Rick Perry 20% / 8% {+12%}
• Tim Pawlenty 30% [23%] / 22% [4%] {+8%}
• Newt Gingrich 38% [51%] / 39% [24%] {-1%}
• Ron Paul 29% [37%] / 33% [18%] {-4%}
• Fred Karger 2% / 10% {-8%}
• Jon Huntsman 8% [5%] / 17% [2%] {-9%}
• Gary Johnson 2% / 12% {-10%}
• Buddy Roemer 2% / 13% {-11%}
• Donald Trump 34% / 47% {-13%}

Among Birthers (Believe Obama Was NOT Born in U.S.)

• Sarah Palin 73% / 21% {+52%}
• Jeb Bush 60% / 10% {+50%}
• Rudy Giuliani 59% / 21% {+38%}
• Chris Christie 43% / 8% {+35%}
• Michele Bachmann 46% / 13% {+33%}
• Paul Ryan 38% / 8% {+30%}
• Mitt Romney 56% / 28% {+28%}
• Herman Cain 41% / 20% {+21%}
• Ron Paul 41% / 25% {+16%}
• Rick Santorum 30% / 16% {+14%}
• Rick Perry 22% / 10% {+12%}
• Newt Gingrich 43% / 38% {+5%}
• Tim Pawlenty 29% / 25% {+4%}
• Donald Trump 41% / 38% {+3%}
• Fred Karger 3% / 14% {-11%}
• Jon Huntsman 8% / 20% {-12%}
• Gary Johnson 2% / 15% {-13%}
• Buddy Roemer 4% / 18% {-14%}

Among Non-Birthers (Believe Obama WAS Born in U.S.)

• Jeb Bush 54% / 21% {+33%}
• Chris Christie 49% / 16% {+33%}
• Mitt Romney 59% / 28% {+31%}
• Paul Ryan 43% / 16% {+27%}
• Rudy Giuliani 53% / 28% {+25%}
• Herman Cain 43% / 20% {+23%}
• Michele Bachmann 43% / 22% {+21%}
• Tim Pawlenty 39% / 25% {+14%}
• Rick Perry 28% / 14% {+14%}
• Rick Santorum 33% / 22% {+11%}
• Ron Paul 38% / 37% {+1%}
• Sarah Palin 47% / 46% {+1%}
• Jon Huntsman 13% / 23% {-10%}
• Fred Karger 3% / 14% {-11%}
• Buddy Roemer 5% / 17% {-12%}
• Gary Johnson 3% / 15% {-12%}
• Newt Gingrich 33% / 51% {-18%}
• Donald Trump 26% / 62% {-36%}

Among Tea Party Members

• Sarah Palin 81% [84%] / 14% [11%] {+67%}
• Michele Bachmann 63% [49%] / 9% [9%] {+54%}
• Chris Christie 58% / 7% {+51%}
• Jeb Bush 63% / 14% {+49%}
• Paul Ryan 55% / 8% {+47%}
• Herman Cain 51% [16%] / 15% [5%] {+36%}
• Rick Santorum 42% [30%] / 13% [5%] {+29%}
• Rudy Giuliani 55% [61%] / 27% [19%] {+28%}
• Mitt Romney 58% [63%] / 30% [22%] {+28%}
• Rick Perry 36% / 10% {+26%}
• Ron Paul 47% [63%] / 28% [8%] {+19%}
• Tim Pawlenty 39% [33%] / 21% [5%] {+18%}
• Newt Gingrich 48% [68%] / 40% [16%] {+8%}
• Donald Trump 41% / 40% {+1%}
• Fred Karger 5% / 13% {-8%}
• Jon Huntsman 11% [12%] / 22% [5%] {-11%}
• Gary Johnson 5% / 17% {-12%}
• Buddy Roemer 4% / 17% {-13%}

Among Non-Tea Party Republicans

• Jeb Bush 52% / 19% {+33%}
• Mitt Romney 57% [60%] / 27% [21%] {+30%}
• Rudy Giuliani 53% [58%] / 27% [21%] {+26%}
• Chris Christie 40% / 16% {+24%}
• Paul Ryan 33% / 16% {+17%}
• Herman Cain 37% [9%] / 24% [6%] {+13%}
• Michele Bachmann 33% [24%] / 23% [17%] {+10%}
• Rick Perry 19% / 13% {+6%}
• Rick Santorum 26% [24%] / 22% [9%] {+4%}
• Tim Pawlenty 32% [29%] / 30% [7%] {+2%}
• Ron Paul 35% [38%] / 35% [27%] {0%}
• Sarah Palin 45% [48%] / 49% [39%] {-4%}
• Jon Huntsman 10% [8%] / 21% [5%] {-11%}
• Fred Karger 2% / 16% {-14%}
• Gary Johnson 1% / 15% {-14%}
• Buddy Roemer 4% / 19% {-15%}
• Newt Gingrich 33% [46%] / 49% [32%] {-16%}
• Donald Trump 25% / 60% {-35%}

Survey of 1,000 usual South Carolina Republican primary voters was conducted June 2-5, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 78% [81%] (77%) Republican; 19% [18%] (20%) Independent/Other; 3% [0%] (3%) Democrat. Political ideology: 41% Very conservative; 36% Somewhat conservative; 17% Moderate; 3% Somewhat liberal; 3% Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted January 28-30, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 22-23, 2010 are in parentheses.