Poll Watch: Gallup 2012 GOP Favorability Survey

Gallup 2012 GOP Favorability Survey

Among Republicans/GOP-Leaning Independents Who Recognize Candidate

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Herman Cain 76% {77%} (75%) [77%] {76%} (73%) [73%] {74%} (74%) [74%] {77%} (76%) [77%] {72%} / 14% {13%} (14%) [15%] {15%} (13%) [14%] {13%} (14%) [13%] {13%} (13%) [12%] {16%} {+62%}
• Mitt Romney 67% {71%} (72%) [72%] {74%} (71%) [71%] {70%} (73%) [74%] {72%} (73%) [74%] {73%} / 23% {18%} (19%) [20%] {18%} (20%) [19%] {20%} (19%) [17%] {18%} (18%) [16%] {16%} {+44%}
• Newt Gingrich 67% {66%} (63%) [64%] {61%} (61%) [61%] {60%} (57%) [53%] {56%} (57%) [56%] {55%} / 27% {27%} (30%) [30%] {31%} (33%) [31%] {34%} (35%) [36%] {34%} (34%) [36%] {36%} {+40%}
• Rick Santorum 62% {62%} (61%) [65%] {65%} (60%) [63%] {62%} (62%) [64%] {62%} (62%) [67%] {69%} / 23% {24%} (23%) [19%] {21%} (22%) [23%] {23%} (20%) [19%] {20%} (20%) [18%] {15%} {+39%}
• Rick Perry 60% {63%} (68%) [71%] {74%} (73%) [73%] {71%} (69%) [70%] {70%} (74%) [73%] {67%} / 30% {27%} (21%) [17%] {15%} (16%) [13%] {14%} (15%) [13%] {15%} (15%) [15%] {17%} {+30%}
• Michele Bachmann 57% {59%} (59%) [62%] {65%} (64%) [67%] {68%} (67%) [70%] {69%} (64%) [67%] {74%} / 33% {32%} (31%) [29%] {29%} (27%) [24%] {23%} (21%) [20%] {21%} (24%) [20%] {15%} {+24%}
• Jon Huntsman 52% {54%} (50%) [51%] {53%} (53%) [50%] {48%} (50%) [51%] {50%} (55%) [55%] {55%} / 34% {31%} (31%) [32%] {32%} (34%) [34%] {35%} (31%) [27%] {28%} (25%) [24%] {26%} {+18%}
• Ron Paul 53% {53%} (56%) [57%] {57%} (59%) [61%] {60%} (61%) [63%] {65%} (65%) [61%] {62%} / 36% {35%} (33%) [32%] {34%} (30%) [27%] {28%} (27%) [25%] {24%} (24%) [25%] {25%} {+17%}

Herman Cain

• Strongly Favorable 35% {35%} (31%) [27%] {25%} (24%) [26%] {28%} (29%) [26%] {24%} (27%) [29%] {26%}
• Favorable 41% {42%} (44%) [50%] {51%} (49%) [47%] {46%} (45%) [48%] {53%} (49%) [48%] {46%}
• Unfavorable 12% {12%} (13%) [14%] {13%} (11%) [12%] {12%} (13%) [12%] {12%} (11%) [10%] {15%}
• Strongly Unfavorable 2% {1%} (1%) [1%] {2%} (2%) [2%] {1%} (1%) [1%] {1%} (2%) [2%] {1%}

Mitt Romney

• Strongly Favorable 19% {18%} (17%) [17%] {19%} (19%) [15%] {15%} (18%) [17%] {17%} (18%) [21%] {19%}
• Favorable 48% {53%} (55%) [55%] {55%} (52%) [56%] {55%} (55%) [57%] {55%} (55%) [53%] {54%}
• Unfavorable 19% {14%} (16%) [17%] {15%} (17%) [16%] {16%} (15%) [14%] {15%} (15%) [13%] {14%}
• Strongly Unfavorable 4% {4%} (3%) [3%] {3%} (3%) [3%] {4%} (4%) [3%] {3%} (3%) [3%] {2%}

Newt Gingrich

• Strongly Favorable 19% {18%} (16%) [16%] {15%} (13%) [13%] {15%} (12%) [10%] {9%} (8%) [10%] {11%}
• Favorable 48% {48%} (47%) [48%] {46%} (48%) [48%] {45%} (45%) [43%] {47%} (49%) [46%] {44%}
• Unfavorable 22% {22%} (24%) [24%] {25%} (27%) [25%] {26%} (27%) [29%] {27%} (27%) [29%] {29%}
• Strongly Unfavorable 5% {5%} (6%) [6%] {6%} (6%) [6%] {8%} (8%) [7%] {7%} (7%) [7%] {7%}

Rick Santorum

• Strongly Favorable 12% {12%} (12%) [13%] {12%} (11%) [13%] {13%} (9%) [9%] {9%} (11%) [13%] {13%}
• Favorable 50% {50%} (49%) [52%] {53%} (49%) [50%] {49%} (53%) [55%] {53%} (51%) [54%] {56%}
• Unfavorable 21% {22%} (20%) [17%] {19%} (19%) [20%] {20%} (18%) [17%] {16%} (16%) [16%] {14%}
• Strongly Unfavorable 2% {2%} (3%) [2%] {2%} (3%) [3%] {3%} (2%) [2%] {4%} (4%) [2%] {1%}

Rick Perry

• Strongly Favorable 11% {13%} (19%) [25%] {27%} (27%) [29%] {27%} (25%) [25%] {24%} (26%) [26%] {23%}
• Favorable 49% {50%} (49%) [46%] {47%} (46%) [44%] {44%} (44%) [45%] {46%} (48%) [47%] {44%}
• Unfavorable 23% {21%} (17%) [14%] {12%} (12%) [10%] {12%} (13%) [11%] {14%} (13%) [12%] {14%}
• Strongly Unfavorable 7% {6%} (4%) [3%] {3%} (4%) [3%] {2%} (2%) [2%] {1%} (2%) [3%] {3%}

Michele Bachmann

• Strongly Favorable 12% {11%} (12%) [15%] {17%} (17%) [17%] {19%} (21%) [24%] {22%} (20%) [23%] {24%}
• Favorable 45% {48%} (47%) [47%] {48%} (47%) [50%] {49%} (46%) [46%] {47%} (44%) [44%] {50%}
• Unfavorable 24% {25%} (24%) [22%] {23%} (21%) [18%] {17%} (16%) [16%] {17%} (18%) [15%] {12%}
• Strongly Unfavorable 9% {7%} (7%) [7%] {6%} (6%) [6%] {6%} (5%) [4%] {4%} (6%) [5%] {3%}

Jon Huntsman

• Strongly Favorable 6% {5%} (4%) [6%] {6%} (5%) [5%] {6%} (6%) [7%] {8%} (8%) [6%] {7%}
• Favorable 46% {49%} (46%) [45%] {47%} (48%) [45%] {42%} (44%) [44%] {42%} (47%) [49%] {48%}
• Unfavorable 29% {27%} (26%) [27%] {28%} (28%) [28%] {30%} (27%) [24%] {26%} (22%) [20%] {21%}
• Strongly Unfavorable 5% {4%} (5%) [5%] {4%} (6%) [6%] {5%} (4%) [3%] {2%} (3%) [4%] {5%}

Ron Paul

• Strongly Favorable 10% {9%} (10%) [12%] {13%} (12%) [11%] {11%} (14%) [15%] {13%} (13%) [12%] {11%}
• Favorable 43% {44%} (46%) [45%] {44%} (47%) [50%] {49%} (47%) [48%] {52%} (52%) [49%] {51%}
• Unfavorable 28% {28%} (27%) [26%] {28%} (25%) [23%] {23%} (22%) [21%] {20%} (20%) [21%] {22%}
• Strongly Unfavorable 8% {7%} (6%) [6%] {6%} (5%) [4%] {5%} (5%) [4%] {4%} (4%) [4%] {3%}

Positive Intensity Score (Strongly Favorable minus Strongly Unfavorable)

• Herman Cain +34% {+34%} (+30%) [+26%] {+24%} (+22%) [+24%] {+27%} (+28%) [+25%] {+22%} (+25%) [+27%] {+25%}
• Mitt Romney +15% {+14%} (+13%) [+14%] {+15%} (+16%) [+12%] {+11%} (+14%) [+15%] {+14%} (+15%) [18%] {+17%}
• Newt Gingrich +13% {+13%} (+11%) [+10%] {+10%} (+7%) [+7%] {+7%} (+4%) [+3%] {+2%} (+1%) [+3%] {+4%}
• Rick Santorum +10% {+10%} (+8%) [+11%] {+10%} (+8%) [+10%] {+10%} (+7%) [+6%] {+5%} (+7%) [+11%] {+12%}
• Rick Perry +4% {+7%} (+15%) [+22%] {+24%} (+24%) [+25%] {+25%} (+22%) [+23%] {+23%} (+24%) [+23%] {+21%}
• Michele Bachmann +4% {+4%} (+5%) [+8%] {+11%} (+10%) [+11%] {+13%} (+16%) [+20%] {+18%} (+14%) [+18%] {+21%}
• Ron Paul +2% {+2%} (+3%) [+6%] {+7%} (+7%) [+6%] {+6%} (+9%) [+11%] {+9%} (+8%) [+9%] {+8%}
• Jon Huntsman +1% {+1%} (-1%) [+1%] {+2%} (-1%) [-2%] {+1%} (+2%) [+4%] {+6%} (+5%) [+3%] {+2%}

Name Recognition

• Mitt Romney 88% {85%} (83%) [84%] {85%} (86%) [88%] {88%} (86%) [86%] {86%} (84%) [85%] {86%}
• Newt Gingrich 86% {85%} (84%) [85%] {86%} (86%) [86%] {85%} (85%) [86%] {85%} (84%) [85%] {85%}
• Michele Bachmann 85% {84%} (84%) [83%] {84%} (84%) [84%] {85%} (83%) [81%] {78%} (76%) [78%] {77%}
• Rick Perry 82% {80%} (80%) [79%] {76%} (75%) [74%] {75%} (67%) [59%] {54%} (54%) [56%] {55%}
• Ron Paul 80% {78%} (79%) [80%] {82%} (81%) [79%] {78%} (78%) [78%] {78%} (77%) [78%] {77%}
• Herman Cain 69% {61%} (55%) [51%] {50%} (48%) [48%] {50%} (47%) [45%] {45%} (46%) [47%] {44%}
• Rick Santorum 55% {54%} (54%) [53%] {53%} (54%) [52%] {52%} (51%) [51%] {51%} (50%) [50%] {49%}
• Jon Huntsman 49% {46%} (43%) [44%] {45%} (46%) [46%] {43%} (40%) [38%] {39%} (40%) [40%] {41%}

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking October 3-16, 2011, with random samples of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. Questions asking about the 10 potential candidates measured in this research were rotated among randomly selected samples of Republicans each night; over the 14-day period, each candidate was rated by approximately 1,400 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.

For the overall ratings of each potential candidate among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, including recognition scores, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.   

Results from the poll conducted September 26 - October 9, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 19 - October 2, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 12-25, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 5-18, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 29 - September 11, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 22 - September 4, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 15-28, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 8-21, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 1-14, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 25 - August 7, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 18-31, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 11-24, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 4-17, 2011 are in curly brackets.