Poll Watch: CNN/ORC 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

CNN/ORC 2012 GOP Nomination Poll

• Mitt Romney 36% [32%] (34%) {28%} [20%] (24%) {26%} [22%] (21%) {18%} [23%] (22%) 
• Rick Santorum 26% [34%] (15%) {4%} [4%] (3%) {2%} [3%] (2%) {1%} [3%] (2%)  
• Ron Paul 17% [16%] (15%) {14%} [9%] (8%) {9%} [7%] (13%) {6%} [14%] (12%) 
• Newt Gingrich 15% [15%] (18%) {28%} [24%] (22%) {8%} [11%] (7%) {7%} [8%] (5%) 
• None/No one (vol.) 2% [2%] (3%) {5%} [3%] (4%) {5%} [5%] (4%) {6%} [5%] (10%)
• No opinion 2% [2%] (3%) {4%} [2%] (4%) {4%} [3%] (3%) {4%} [4%] (2%)

Among Republicans (MoE: +/- 6.0%)

• Mitt Romney 37% [30%]
• Rick Santorum 26% [41%]
• Newt Gingrich 17% [15%] 
• Ron Paul 13% [11%] 
• None/No one (vol.) 3% [2%]
• No opinion 2% [1%]

Among Independents (MoE: +/- 7.5%)

• Mitt Romney 35% [34%]
• Rick Santorum 26% [23%]
• Ron Paul 23% [23%] 
• Newt Gingrich 12% [15%]
  
• None/No one (vol.) 1% [2%]
• No opinion 2% [3%]

Do you support that candidate strongly, or only moderately?

• Strongly 45% [34%]
• Only moderately 50% [66%]

Among Santorum Voters

• Strongly 53% [55%]
• Only moderately 47% [45%]

Among Romney Voters

• Strongly 41% [38%]
• Only moderately 59% [62%]

For each of the following candidates, please tell me whether you would like them to stay in the race for the Republican nomination or drop out of the race and end their campaign entirely. 

Mitt Romney 

• Stay in the race 77% 
• Drop out 21% 

Rick Santorum 

• Stay in the race 59% 
• Drop out 39% 

Newt Gingrich 

• Stay in the race 39% 
• Drop out 60% 

Ron Paul 

• Stay in the race 36% 
• Drop out 61%  

And how likely do you think it is that each of the following candidates will win the Republican nomination for president? As I read each name, please tell me whether you think that is almost certain, very likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely, very unlikely, or whether you think there is absolutely no chance that he will win the Republican nomination.

Mitt Romney

• Almost certain 26%
• Very likely 45%
• Somewhat likely 21%
• Somewhat unlikely 4%
• Very unlikely 2%
• No chance 2% 

Rick Santorum

• Almost certain 2%
  
• Very likely 13%
  
• Somewhat likely 39%
  
• Somewhat unlikely 20%
  
• Very unlikely 12%
  
• No chance 13% 

Newt Gingrich

• Almost certain 2%
  
• Very likely 5%
  
• Somewhat likely 21%
  
• Somewhat unlikely 19%
  
• Very unlikely 26%
  
• No chance 27%

Ron Paul

• Almost certain 3%
  
• Very likely 6%
  
• Somewhat likely 9%
  
• Somewhat unlikely 15%
  
• Very unlikely 25%
  
• No chance 42%

I’m going to read you a few phrases, and for each one, please tell me whether you think that phrase better describes Mitt Romney or Rick Santorum. Please feel free to name a candidate even if you may not support him. 

Can defeat Barack Obama in the general election in November 

• Mitt Romney 69% 
• Rick Santorum 20% 

Can get the economy moving 

• Mitt Romney 64% 
• Rick Santorum 24% 

Is a strong leader 

• Mitt Romney 60% 
• Rick Santorum 29% 

Inspires confidence 

• Mitt Romney 52% 
• Rick Santorum 36% 

Says what he believes rather than what he thinks voters would like to hear 

• Rick Santorum 53% 
• Mitt Romney 36% 

Is more honest and trustworthy 

• Rick Santorum 49% 
• Mitt Romney 37% 

Shares your values 

• Rick Santorum 48% 
• Mitt Romney 40% 

Cares about people like you 

• Rick Santorum 47% 
• Mitt Romney 34% 

Is likable 

• Rick Santorum 47% 
• Mitt Romney 42% 

Agrees with you on the issues that matter most to you 

• Rick Santorum 46% 
• Mitt Romney 39% 

If you had to choose, would you rather see the Republican party choose its presidential nominee through the primaries and caucuses that are currently being conducted, or would you rather see the Republican nominee chosen at the party's national convention in August? 

• Primaries and caucuses 53% 
• Convention 43%

Survey of 436 Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents was conducted March 24-25, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted February 10-13, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 11-12, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 16-18, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 18-20, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 11-13, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 14-16, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 23-25, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 9-11, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 24-25, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 5-7, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 18-20, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 24-26, 2011 are in square brackets.