Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Maryland 2012 Republican Primary Survey

Rasmussen (R) Maryland 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 45%
• Rick Santorum 28%
• Newt Gingrich 12%
• Ron Paul 7% 
• Some other candidate 2%
• Undecided 6%

If the 2012 Republican Primary for president were held today and you only had a choice between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, for whom would you vote?

• Mitt Romney 53%
• Rick Santorum 39%

Which Republican presidential candidate would be the strongest opponent against Barack Obama in the general election?

• Mitt Romney 54%
• Rick Santorum 20%
• Newt Gingrich 16%

Regardless of who you want to win, who do you think will win the Republican presidential nomination?

• Mitt Romney 82%
• Rick Santorum 9%

Suppose your favorite candidate does not win the nomination. When the general election is held, would you be most likely to vote for the Republican candidate, President Barack Obama, or a third party candidate?

• Republican candidate 84%
• President Barack Obama 7%
• Third party candidate 4%

Are you certain you will vote for that candidate or is it possible that something come up that causes you to change your mind?

• Certain 61%
• Could change mind 33%

Survey of 750 likely Maryland Republican primary voters was conducted March 28, 2012 . The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.
 

Inside the numbers:

If Romney is the nominee, 79% think he is at least somewhat likely to beat Obama, including 39% who say it’s Very Likely. Fifty-seven percent (57%) feel Santorum is likely to beat the president, with 21% who rate it as Very Likely. Most Maryland Republicans think Gingrich and Paul are unlikely to beat the president.

Most Maryland Republicans (54%) think it’s more important to choose a candidate who has the best chance of defeating Obama, but 40% think the emphasis should be on a candidate who does the best job representing GOP values. Romney leads Santorum by a three-to-one margin – 59% to 20% - among those who put electability first. Santorum leads Romney 38% to 29% among voters who prefer the candidate closest to party values.

Romney is viewed favorably by 74% of Maryland Republicans, Santorum by 65%, Gingrich by 56% and Paul by 37%.

The former Massachusetts governor leads among very conservative GOP primary voters by a slight 38% to 34% but is ahead 52% to 27% among those who say they are somewhat conservative. He also leads 47% to 19% among non-conservatives.

Romney holds double-digit leads over Santorum among both Tea Party Republicans and those who are not members of the grass roots movement.

Santorum leads by six points among Evangelical Christian Republicans in Maryland but trails by wide margins in all other religious categories.