Friday, March 23, 2012

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Wisconsin 2012 Republican Primary Survey

Rasmussen (R) Wisconsin 2012 GOP Primary Poll
  • Mitt Romney 46%
  • Rick Santorum 33%
  • Ron Paul 8% 
  • Newt Gingrich 7%
  • Some other candidate 1%
  • Undecided 5%
If the 2012 Republican Primary for president were held today and you only had a choice between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, for whom would you vote?
  • Mitt Romney 51%
  • Rick Santorum 40%
Survey of 1,000 likely Wisconsin Republican primary voters was conducted March 21, 2012 . The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.
Inside the numbers:
Among Wisconsin Republicans who describe themselves as very conservative, Santorum edges Romney 43% to 39%. Romney leads his chief rival by roughly 20 points among voters who are somewhat conservative or not conservative.

Romney leads among both Tea Party voters and non-Tea Party members in the state. Santorum holds a small lead among Evangelical Christian voters, but Romney is well ahead among other Protestants, Catholics and voters of other faiths in Wisconsin.

Even if their favorite does not become the party’s nominee, 85% plan to vote for the Republican candidate in November. Seven percent (7%) will vote for Obama, and four percent (4%) will choose a third party candidate.

Eighty-four percent (84%) think Romney will be the eventual Republican nominee, and 59% believe he would be the strongest opponent for President Obama. Just 20% think Santorum would be the strongest challenger.

Eighty-six percent (86%) of all likely GOP primary voters in the state think Romney is at least somewhat likely to defeat President Obama in the general election. Sixty-nine percent (69%) feel that way about Santorum. But those findings include 54% who say Romney is very likely to win versus just 26% who believe that of Santorum.

Forty-eight percent (48%) of likely Wisconsin primary voters think it’s more important to choose the candidate who has the best chance of beating Obama, while nearly as many (45%) think the emphasis should be on a candidate who best represents party values. Nationally and in most states surveyed to date, most voters put electability first.

Romney leads Santorum 57% to 24% among voters who emphasize a candidate who can beat Obama. Santorum leads Romney by a much narrower 43% to 35% among those who prefer a candidate who best represents GOP values.

Romney is viewed favorably by 80% of likely primary voters in Wisconsin, Santorum by 72%, Gingrich by 45% and Paul by 37%.

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