Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

Rasmussen (R) 2012 GOP Nomination Poll

• Mitt Romney 37% [39%] (40%) {27%} [34%] (28%) {30%} [29%] (17%){23%} [29%] (24%) {18%} [22%] (33%) {17%} [24%] (20%) 
• Rick Santorum 28% [27%] (24%) {39%} [18%] (16%) {15%} [21%] (4%) {1%} [2%] (3%) {1%}     
  
• Newt Gingrich 17% [17%] (16%) {15%} [27%] (35%) {27%} [16%] (38%) {14%} [10%] (9%) {5%} [6%] (9%) {9%} [11%] (13%)
• Ron Paul 10% [10%] (12%) {10%} [11%] (10%) {13%} [12%] (8%) {7%} [5%] (6%) {9%} [10%] (7%) {8%} [4%] (5%)

Very Conservative Voters

• Rick Santorum 41% [37%]
  
• Mitt Romney 28% [32%]
• Newt Gingrich 21%

Somewhat Conservative Voters

• Mitt Romney 46% [46%]
• Rick Santorum 21% [23%]

Tea Party Voters

• Rick Santorum 38% [33%]
  
• Mitt Romney 33% [34%]

Non-Tea Party Voters

• Mitt Romney 42% [41%]
• Rick Santorum 23% [24%]

If the 2012 Republican Primary for president were held today and you only had a choice between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, for whom would you vote?

• Mitt Romney 47% [50%] (50%) {34%} [50%]
• Rick Santorum 42% [39%] (38%) {55%} [38%]

Are you certain you will vote for that candidate or is it possible that something come up that causes you to change your mind?

• Certain 53% [53%] (51%) {45%}
• Could change mind 42% [41%] (43%) {49%}

Which Republican presidential candidate would be the strongest opponent against Barack Obama in the general election?

• Mitt Romney 48% [51%] (49%)
• Rick Santorum 22% [19%] (18%)
  
• Newt Gingrich 17% [18%] (16%)

Regardless of who you want to win, who do you think will win the Republican presidential nomination?

• Mitt Romney 70% [80%] (75%) {64%} [75%]
• Rick Santorum 17% [11%] (12%) {18%} [3%]

What’s more important - choosing a Republican nominee who does the best job representing Republican values or choosing a nominee that has the best chance to beat Barack Obama?

• Has best chance to beat Obama 51% [56%]
• Does best job representing GOP values 41% [37%]

Note: Romney leads Santorum 50% to 20% among those who put electability first. Among those who put the emphasis on GOP values, it’s Santorum 40%, Romney 24%.

Now I’m going to read you a short list of names. In political terms please tell me whether that person is very conservative, somewhat conservative, moderate, somewhat liberal or very liberal.

Very/Somewhat Conservative

• Rick Santorum 85% [88%] (84%)
• Newt Gingrich 73% [74%] (72%)
• Ron Paul 57% [57%] (57%)
• Mitt Romney 52% [57%] (58%)

Now I’m going to read you a short list of people in the news. For each, please let me know if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable impression.

Very/Somewhat Favorable

• Mitt Romney 69% [73%] (71%) {66%}
• Rick Santorum 64% [69%] (63%) {75%}
• Newt Gingrich 53% [57%] (56%) {53%}
• Ron Paul 38% [40%] (41%) {41%}

Survey of 1,000 likely GOP primary voters was conducted March 15, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted March 7, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 29, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 14, 2012 are in curly brackets.   Results from the poll conducted February 6, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 6, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 23, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 17, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 4, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 30, 2011are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 2, 2011are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 12, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 19, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 15, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 28, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 14, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 26, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 18, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 1, 2010 are in parentheses. 

Inside the numbers:

Santorum continues to hold a large lead among Evangelical Christian voters, while Romney is well ahead among other Protestants, Catholics and GOP voters of all other faiths.