Poll Watch: NBC News/Wall Street Journal 2012 Presidential Survey

NBC/WSJ 2012 Presidential Poll

Among Registered Voters

• Barack Obama 47% (47%) [49%] {50%} (49%) [47%] {49%} (46%) [46%] {48%} [49%] {49%} [47%]
• Mitt Romney 44% (43%) [43%] {44%} (43%) [45%] {43%} (44%) [45%] {41%} [43%] {40%} [40%]

Note: Among swing-state respondents in the poll – those living in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin – Obama leads Romney, 50 to 42 percent. 

(Among Obama Voters) Would you definitely vote for Barack Obama, probably vote for Barack Obama but are still thinking about it, or are you just leaning toward voting for Obama?

• Definitely vote for Obama 78% (73%) [74%]
• Probably vote for Obama, but still thinking about it 10% (13%) [13%]
• Just leaning toward voting for Obama 12% (13%) [12%]

(Among Romney Voters) Would you definitely vote for Mitt Romney, probably vote for Mitt Romney but are still thinking about it, or are you just leaning toward voting for Romney?

• Definitely vote for Romney 68% (72%) [65%]
• Probably vote for Romney, but still thinking about it 20% (14%) [16%]
• Just leaning toward voting for Romney 12% (14%) [19%]

Definitely Vote for Candidate

• Barack Obama 37% (34%) [37%]
• Mitt Romney 30% (31%) [28%]

(Among Obama Voters) Would you say that your vote is more FOR Barack Obama or more AGAINST Mitt Romney?

• For Obama 72%
• Against Romney 22%

(Among Romney Voters) Would you say that your vote is more FOR Mitt Romney or more AGAINST Barack Obama?

• For Romney 35%
• Against Obama 58%

And, if the next election for president were held today, for whom would you vote if the choices were Mitt Romney the Republican candidate, Barack Obama the Democratic candidate, or an Independent candidate?

• Barack Obama 41%
• Mitt Romney 33%
• Independent 15%
• Depends (Vol) 7%
• None/other (Vol) 1%
• Not sure 3%

Rate your feelings toward each one as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative.

Barack Obama

• Very positive 29% (32%) [30%] {28%} (28%) [22%] {26%} (23%) [24%] [27%] [28%] {28%} (29%) [25%]
• Somewhat positive 19% (17%) [18%] {21%} (22%) [23%] {19%} (23%) [20%] [22%] [22%] {21%} (23%) [23%]
• Neutral 14% (10%) [13%] {14%} (10%) [13%] {15%} (14%) [12%] [14%] [14%] {15%} (15%) [14%]
• Somewhat negative 11% (12%) [13%] {12%} (14%) [15%] {13%} (12%) [14%] [13%] [13%] {15%} (14%) [14%]
• Very negative 27% (29%) [26%] {25%} (25%) [27%] {27%} (28%) [30%] [24%] [23%] {20%} (18%) [24%]

Mitt Romney

• Very positive 9% (10%) [10%] {6%} (6%) [4%] {5%} (6%) [5%] [7%] {6%} [10%]
• Somewhat positive 24% (24%) [23%] {22%} (25%) [20%] {21%} (21%) [19%] [20%] {19%} [18%]
• Neutral 22% (23%) [26%] {28%} (26%) [30%] {32%} (30%) [32%] [30%] {30%} [30%]
• Somewhat negative 17% (19%) [18%] {20%} (21%) [21%] {17%} (17%) [18%] [16%] {13%} [10%]
• Very negative 22% (19%) [18%] {19%} (15%) [11%] {13%} (12%) [11%] [10%] {12%} [10%]

In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

• Approve 47% (48%)
• Disapprove 48% (46%)

Do you generally approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing in handling the economy?

• Approve 42% (43%)
• Disapprove 53% (52%)

Survey of 1,000 adults, including a subsample of 819 registered voters (88% of whom say they are almost certain to vote), was conducted June 20-24, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points among adults; +/- 3.4 percentage points among registered voters.  Results from the poll conducted May 16-20, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 13-17, 2012 are in square brackets.   Results from the poll conducted February 29 - March 3, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 22-24, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 7-11, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 2-5, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 6-10, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 27-31, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 14-17, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 9-13, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 31 - April 4, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 24-28, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 13-17, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 9-13, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September, 2010 are in curly brackets.

Inside the numbers: 

Obama is ahead among African Americans (92 to 1 percent), women (52 to 39 percent), Latinos, voters ages 18-29 (52 to 35 percent) and independents (40 to 36 percent). Romney leads among Tea Party supporters (94 to 1 percent), whites (53 to 38 percent) and men (48 to 43 percent).

And the two are running even among seniors, Midwest residents and high-interest voters.

A month ago, Romney’s favorable/unfavorable score stood at 34-38 percent nationally and 36-36 percent in the 12 swing states.

But in this latest survey, his national fav/unfav score is 33-39 percent and 30-41 percent in the swing states.

Among swing-state respondents, 18 percent say what they’ve seen and heard about Romney’s business record gives them a more positive opinion about the Republican candidate, versus 33 percent who say it’s more negative.

That’s compared to the national 23-to-28 percent margin on this question.

Although the poll shows that only 6 percent of respondents don’t know who Romney is, just 20 percent say they “know a lot” about him, versus 43 percent who indicate the same about Obama. (That said, Romney’s percentage here is comparable to Obama’s when he was running for president at this same point in 2008.)