Poll Watch: Democracy Corps (D) 2012 Presidential Survey

Democracy Corps (D) 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama 49% {47%} [49%] (47%) {45%} [48%] (47%) {48%} [46%] (48%)
• Mitt Romney 46% {47%} [45%] (46%) {45%} [46%] (45%) {44%} [48%] (46%)

I am going to read you a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think Barack Obama or Mitt Romney would do a better job with each issue.

The economy

• Mitt Romney 45%
• Barack Obama 44%

Having the right approach to taxes

• Barack Obama 44%
• Mitt Romney 42%

On your side

• Barack Obama 44%
  
• Mitt Romney 37%

Sharing my values

• Barack Obama 45%
  
• Mitt Romney 43%

Looking out for the middle class

• Barack Obama 49%
  
• Mitt Romney 41%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

• Approve 47% {45%} [50%] (44%) {40%} [45%] (46%) {49%} [44%] (47%)
• Disapprove 48% {50%} [46%] (49%) {53%} [50%] (48%) {45%} [50%] (47%)

Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Republicans in Congress are handling their job in charge of the House of Representatives?

• Approve 32% {28%} [26%] (26%) {27%} [31%] (32%) {33%} [38%]
• Disapprove 62% {63%} [68%] (66%) {65%} [64%] (60%) {59%} [55%]

I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the elections for Congress in 2012, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Democratic House candidate or the Republican House candidate?

• Republican candidate 46% {45%} [45%] (44%) {46%} [47%] (47%) {45%} [47%] (47%)
• Democratic candidate 45% {46%} [47%] (47%) {46%} [46%] (44%) {46%} [45%] (44%)

Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted June 23-27, 2012 by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner.  The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Party ID: 37% {37%} [39%] (40%) {35%} [38%] (35%) {38%} [38%] (34%) Democrat; 31% {31%} [31%] (31%) {31%} [33%] (32%) {31%} [36%] (34%) Republican; 28% {29%} [26%] (26%) {32%} [26%] (30%) {28%} [23%] (28%) Independent. Political ideology: 39% {39%} [41%] (41%) {38%} [42%] (43%) {41%} [43%] (42%) Conservative; 33% {32%} [30%] (35%) {36%} [35%] (33%) {31%} [34%] (34%) Moderate; 21% {21%} [22%] (19%) {19%} [20%] (19%) {21%} [18%] (18%) Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted April 28 - May 1, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 11-14, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 8-11, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 15-18, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 6-10, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 18-21, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 21-25, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 10-12, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 9-12, 2011 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers: 

It is important to note that Obama’s gains have come entirely from the Rising American Electorate (youth, unmarried women, African Americans and Latinos) – the broad coalition of voters who supported him enthusiastically in 2008. These voters are beginning to come back. Obama has moved his vote up from 60 to 63 percent with the Rising American Electorate and Romney has slipped a like amount. The gains have come with African Americans (Obama’s vote is up from 88 to 95 percent) and unmarried women (up from 60 to 63 percent). African American gains are driving up the youth vote, but Romney has fallen off with whites under 30 years old. This vote is still well short of 2008, but Obama has improved his vote margin with young people by 15 points since the beginning of this year.

Obama has moved slightly ahead among independents (46 to 44 percent) after trailing slightly in previous polls — and he has consolidated his bloc more than Romney — with only 1 percent vulnerable in our Obama Voter Choice Scale.