Poll Watch: Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa 2014 Senatorial Survey

Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa 2014 Senate Poll 

• Joni Ernst (R) 46.7% (44%) 
• Bruce Braley (D) 45.5% (38%)
• Someone else (vol.) 3%
• Undecided 4% (12%)

Among Men

• Joni Ernst (R) 54% (55%) 
• Bruce Braley (D) 38% (30%)

Among Women

• Bruce Braley (D) 53% (46%)
• Joni Ernst (R) 39% (33%)  

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Joni Ernst 47% / 43% {+4%}
• Bruce Braley 44% / 43% {+1%}

Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted October 3-8, 2014 by Selzer & Company.  The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 21-24, 2014 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Among the 15 percent of likely voters who have already cast ballots — early voting started Sept. 25 in Iowa — 41 percent say they're Democrats, 27 percent say they're Republicans and 28 percent say they're independents. That Democratic tilt gives Braley a lead among those who have already voted, 56 percent to 38 percent.

VIDEO: @jheil & I w/new Iowa Poll includes @HillaryClinton matchups w/ Romney, Ryan, Christie,Bush, etc. http://t.co/K9Ph99HlQw @DMRegister
— Mark Halperin (@MarkHalperin) October 11, 2014