Poll Watch: Rasmussen 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

Rasmussen 2012 GOP Nomination Poll

• Mitt Romney 39% (40%) {27%} [34%] (28%) {30%} [29%] (17%){23%} [29%] (24%) {18%} [22%] (33%) {17%} [24%] (20%) 
• Rick Santorum 27% (24%) {39%} [18%] (16%) {15%} [21%] (4%) {1%} [2%] (3%) {1%}     
  
• Newt Gingrich 17% (16%) {15%} [27%] (35%) {27%} [16%] (38%) {14%} [10%] (9%) {5%} [6%] (9%) {9%} [11%] (13%)
• Ron Paul 10% (12%) {10%} [11%] (10%) {13%} [12%] (8%) {7%} [5%] (6%) {9%} [10%] (7%) {8%} [4%] (5%)

If the 2012 Republican Primary for president were held today and you only had a choice between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, for whom would you vote?

• Mitt Romney 50% (50%) {34%} [50%]
• Rick Santorum 39% (38%) {55%} [38%]

Are you certain you will vote for that candidate or is it possible that something come up that causes you to change your mind?

• Certain 53% (51%) {45%}
• Could change mind 41% (43%) {49%}
• No preference yet (6%) {9%}

Which Republican presidential candidate would be the strongest opponent against Barack Obama in the general election?

• Mitt Romney 51% (49%)
• Rick Santorum 19% (18%)
  
• Newt Gingrich 18% (16%)

Survey of 1,000 likely GOP primary voters was conducted March 7, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted February 29, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 14, 2012 are in curly brackets.    Results from the poll conducted February 6, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 6, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 23, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 17, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 4, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 30, 2011are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 2, 2011are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 12, 2011are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 19, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 15, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 28, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 14, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 26, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 18, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 1, 2010 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Romney and Paul remain the GOP candidates viewed as the least conservative. Santorum is seen as conservative by 88% of Republican voters, and 74% describe Gingrich that way. Romney and Paul are both viewed as conservative by 57%. Perhaps more tellingly, these findings include 52% who consider Santorum Very Conservative versus nine percent (9%) who say that of Romney. 

But Santorum posts just a five-point lead over Romney among Very Conservative voters – 37% to 32%. Romney leads Santorum two-to-one (46% to 23%) among those who say they are Somewhat Conservative and is ahead 38% to 17% among non-conservatives. 

The two front-runners are tied among Tea Party voters, with Romney earning 34% support and Santorum 33%. Non-members prefer Romney 41% to 24%. 

Santorum leads by 10 among Evangelical Christian voters but trails Romney by wider margins among other Protestants, Catholics and Republicans of other faiths. 

Eighty percent (80%) of likely GOP primary voters now expect Romney to be the eventual nominee, up from a previous high of 75% last week. Only 11% feel Santorum will win the nomination, essentially unchanged from the previous survey. 

The majority (56%) of Republican primary voters still think it is more important to choose a candidate who has the best chance of beating Obama. Thirty-seven percent (37%) prefer a candidate who does the best job representing Republican values. Romney leads Santorum 50% to 21% among those who put electability first. Among those who put the emphasis on GOP values, it’s Santorum 36%, Romney 24%, a shift from 33% to 28% a week ago. 

Seventy-three percent (73%) of likely Republican primary voters nationwide share a favorable opinion of Romney. Santorum is viewed favorably by 69%, Gingrich by 57% and Paul by 40%.