Poll Watch: Rasmussen Alabama 2012 Republican Primary Survey

Rasmussen Alabama 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Newt Gingrich 30%
• Rick Santorum 29%
• Mitt Romney 28%
• Ron Paul 7%
• Some other candidate 1%
• Undecided 6%

Among Very Conservative Voters

• Newt Gingrich 34%
• Rick Santorum 34%
• Mitt Romney 21%

Among Somewhat Conservative Voters

• Mitt Romney 34%
• Newt Gingrich 30%
• Rick Santorum 25%

Are you certain you will vote for that candidate or is it possible that something come up that causes you to change your mind?

• Certain 59%
• Could change mind 36%

Survey of 750 likely GOP primary voters was conducted March 8, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

Inside the numbers:

Santorum leads among Evangelical Christians and Alabama Republicans of non-Christian faiths. Romney and Gingrich are virtually tied among other Protestants and Catholics.

Seventy-one percent (71%) of Alabama Republicans believe Romney will be the party’s eventual presidential nominee, although that compares with 80% nationally. In Alabama, just 13% and eight percent (8%) respectively expect Santorum or Gingrich to emerge as the winner.

Forty percent (40%) say Romney would be the strongest candidate against President Obama. Twenty-seven percent (27%) feel that way about Gingrich, while 20% say the same of Santorum.

Fifty-five percent (55%) of Alabama primary voters place more importance on a candidate who has the best chance to beat Obama. Thirty-nine percent (39%) think it’s more important to choose a candidate who does the best job representing Republican values. Among those who put the emphasis on electability, it’s Romney 35%, Gingrich 31%, Santorum 21%. For those who put GOP values first, it’s Santorum 38%, Gingrich 28% and Romney 20%.

Eighty-two percent (82%) regard Santorum as a conservative, and 79% say the same of Gingrich. Just 51% feel that way about Romney and Paul. Of that number, only seven percent (7%) consider Romney very conservative, compared to 43% who say the same of Santorum, 38% of Gingrich and 26% of Paul.

Eighty-five percent (85%) of all likely GOP primary voters in the state will vote for the Republican candidate even if their favorite is not the nominee. Six percent (6%) will go for Obama if that’s the case, and five percent (5%) will support a third party candidate.

Santorum is viewed favorably by 71% of likely Alabama primary voters, Gingrich by 66% and Romney by 62%. Fifty-nine percent (59%) have an unfavorable opinion of Paul.