Poll Watch: Rasmussen Georgia 2012 Republican Primary Survey

Rasmussen Georgia 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Newt Gingrich 37% [38%] (33%)
• Mitt Romney 27% [26%] (20%)
• Rick Santorum 18% [20%] (28%)
• Ron Paul 10% [7%] (9%)
• Some other candidate 2% [3%] (2%)
• Undecided 6% [6%] (8%)

Among Very Conservative Voters

• Newt Gingrich 48% [48%] (41%)
• Rick Santorum 23% [24%] (35%)
• Mitt Romney 19% [18%] (14%)

Among Somewhat Conservative Voters

• Newt Gingrich 37% [39%] (35%)
• Mitt Romney 31% [27%] (24%)
• Rick Santorum 17% [19%] (24%)

Are you certain you will vote for that candidate or is it possible that something come up that causes you to change your mind?

• Certain 65% [60%] (49%)
• Could change mind 29% [33%] (43%)

Which Republican presidential candidate would be the strongest opponent against Barack Obama in the general election?

• Newt Gingrich 39% [36%] (31%)
• Mitt Romney 36% [38%] (32%)
• Rick Santorum 12% (20%)

Regardless of who you want to win, who do you think will win the Republican presidential nomination?

• Mitt Romney 68% [70%] (54%)
• Rick Santorum 12% [12%] (21%)
• Newt Gingrich 11% [12%] (12%)

Survey of 750 likely Republican primary voters was conducted March 4, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted March 1, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 22, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Gingrich holds a near two-to-one lead over Romney among male primary voters in the state but is in a near tie with the former governor among female voters.

Gingrich holds a sizable lead among Evangelical Christian voters but runs even with Romney among other Protestants. Romney holds a double-digit lead over Gingrich among Catholics and voters of other faiths.

Most primary voters (58%) in the state think it’s more important to choose a candidate who has the best chance of beating Obama. Thirty-four percent (34%) prefer a candidate who does the best job representing Republican values. Among voters who count electability as most important, it’s Gingrich 39%, Romney 35% and Santorum 16%. Thirty-five percent (35%) of voters who want a candidate strong on GOP values more favor Gingrich 35% to 23% for Santorum and 19% for Romney.

Eighty-two percent (82%) of Georgia primary voters say they will vote for the Republican nominee even if their favorite doesn’t win. Eight percent (8%) plan to vote for Obama if that’s the case, and seven percent (7%) will vote third party. As in other states, Paul’s supporters are by far the most likely to vote for a third party candidate if the congressman doesn’t win the nomination.

Seventy-one percent (71%) of all primary voters in the Peach Tree State hold a favorable opinion of Gingrich. Santorum’s viewed favorably by 64%, Romney by 62% and Paul by 39%.