Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Texas 2012 Republican Primary Survey

Rasmussen (R) Texas 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 32%
• Rick Santorum 30%
• Newt Gingrich 19%
• Ron Paul 9% 
• Some other candidate 3%
• Undecided 7%

Are you certain you will vote for that candidate or is it possible that something come up that causes you to change your mind?

• Certain 46%
• Could change mind 48%

If the 2012 Republican Primary for president were held today and you only had a choice between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, for whom would you vote?

• Rick Santorum 45%
• Mitt Romney 43%

Which Republican presidential candidate would be the strongest opponent against Barack Obama in the general election?

• Mitt Romney 44%
• Rick Santorum 23%
• Newt Gingrich 20%

What’s more important - choosing a Republican nominee who does the best job representing Republican values or choosing a nominee that has the best chance to beat Barack Obama?

• Nominee that has best chance to beat Obama 57%
• Nominee who does best job representing GOP values 38%

Note: Among those who put electability first, Romney leads with 42% support to Gingrich’s 22%, Santorum’s 20% and Paul’s seven percent (7%). For voters who think adherence to GOP values is paramount, it’s Santorum 44%, Romney 19%, Gingrich 16% and Paul 13%.

Regardless of who you want to win, who do you think will win the Republican presidential nomination?

• Mitt Romney 71%
• Rick Santorum 18%
• Newt Gingrich 5%

Suppose your favorite candidate does not win the nomination. When the general election is held, would you be most likely to vote for the Republican candidate, President Barack Obama or a third party candidate?

• Republican candidate 81%
• President Barack Obama 9%
• Third party candidate 6%

Survey of 750 likely Texas Republican primary voters was conducted March 12, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

Inside the numbers:

Eighty-six percent (86%) consider Santorum a conservative, and 78% say the same of Gingrich. As is the case nationally, Romney and Paul are viewed as the least conservative, with 52% and 55% respectively who regard them that way. More tellingly, only eight percent (8%) think Romney is Very Conservative, compared to 53% who believe that of Santorum, 33% of Gingrich and 32% of Paul.

In Texas, Santorum leads among Very Conservative primary voters with 40% to Romney’s 25% and Gingrich’s 23%. Among Somewhat Conservative voters, it’s Romney 39%, Santorum 24% and Gingrich 21%. Romney has an even wider lead among non-conservative voters.

Romney holds a very slight lead among both married and unmarried voters in the state.

Santorum leads among Evangelical Christians in Texas. Romney is ahead among other Protestants, Catholics and voters of other faiths.

Santorum is viewed favorably by 72% of all primary voters in the state, Romney by 68%, Gingrich by 64% and Paul, despite his longtime roots in the state, by just 39%. Fifty-eight percent (58%) view Paul unfavorably.