Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) California 2012 Republican Primary Survey

Rasmussen (R) California 2012 GOP Primary Poll
  • Mitt Romney 43%
  • Rick Santorum 23%
  • Newt Gingrich 15%
  • Ron Paul 8%
  • Someone other candidate 3%
  • Undecided 8%
Are you certain you will vote for that candidate or is it possible that something come up that causes you to change your mind?
  • Certain 45%
  • Could change mind 47%
If the 2012 Republican Primary for president were held today and you only had a choice between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, for whom would you vote?
  • Mitt Romney 55%
  • Rick Santorum 36%
Which Republican presidential candidate would be the strongest opponent against Barack Obama in the general election?
  • Mitt Romney 55%
  • Newt Gingrich 18%
  • Rick Santorum 17%
What’s more important - choosing a Republican nominee who does the best job representing Republican values or choosing a nominee that has the best chance to beat Barack Obama?
  • Nominee that has best chance to beat Obama 59%
  • Nominee who does best job representing GOP values 35%
Note: Romney is the clear favorite among voters who put electability first, but he is tied with Santorum among those who prefer a candidate who best represents party values.

Regardless of who you want to win, who do you think will win the Republican presidential nomination?
  • Mitt Romney 76%
  • Rick Santorum 15%
  • Newt Gingrich 3%
Suppose your favorite candidate does not win the nomination. When the general election is held, would you be most likely to vote for the Republican candidate, President Barack Obama or a third party candidate?
  • Republican candidate 85%
  • President Barack Obama 8%
  • Third party candidate 2%
    Survey of 750 likely GOP primary voters was conducted March 12, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

    Inside the numbers:
    GOP primary voters in California feel more strongly than all voters nationwide that Santorum and Gingrich are the two most conservative candidates. Ninety percent (90%) see Santorum as at least somewhat conservative, while 76% say the same of Gingrich. Sixty-two percent (62%) believe Romney is politically conservative, and 52% say Paul fits that description.

    Among Very Conservative primary voters, Romney bests Santorum by a 39% to 31% margin. Gingrich earns support from 21% of these voters. Among Somewhat Conservative voters, Romney draws 49% support to Santorum’s 23% and Gingrich’s 13%.

    Seventy-six percent (76%) of likely Republican primary voters in California have at least a somewhat favorable opinion of Romney, while 71% feel that way about Santorum. Fifty-three percent (53%) share a favorable impression Gingrich, but just 31% view Paul favorably.

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