Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) California 2012 Republican Primary Survey

Rasmussen (R) California 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 43%
• Rick Santorum 23%
• Newt Gingrich 15%
• Ron Paul 8%
• Someone other candidate 3%
• Undecided 8%

Are you certain you will vote for that candidate or is it possible that something come up that causes you to change your mind?

• Certain 45%
• Could change mind 47%

If the 2012 Republican Primary for president were held today and you only had a choice between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, for whom would you vote?

• Mitt Romney 55%
• Rick Santorum 36%

Which Republican presidential candidate would be the strongest opponent against Barack Obama in the general election?

• Mitt Romney 55%
• Newt Gingrich 18%
• Rick Santorum 17%

What’s more important - choosing a Republican nominee who does the best job representing Republican values or choosing a nominee that has the best chance to beat Barack Obama?

• Nominee that has best chance to beat Obama 59%
• Nominee who does best job representing GOP values 35%

Note: Romney is the clear favorite among voters who put electability first, but he is tied with Santorum among those who prefer a candidate who best represents party values.

Regardless of who you want to win, who do you think will win the Republican presidential nomination?

• Mitt Romney 76%
• Rick Santorum 15%
• Newt Gingrich 3%

Suppose your favorite candidate does not win the nomination. When the general election is held, would you be most likely to vote for the Republican candidate, President Barack Obama or a third party candidate?

• Republican candidate 85%
• President Barack Obama 8%
• Third party candidate 2%

Survey of 750 likely GOP primary voters was conducted March 12, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

Inside the numbers:

GOP primary voters in California feel more strongly than all voters nationwide that Santorum and Gingrich are the two most conservative candidates. Ninety percent (90%) see Santorum as at least somewhat conservative, while 76% say the same of Gingrich. Sixty-two percent (62%) believe Romney is politically conservative, and 52% say Paul fits that description.

Among Very Conservative primary voters, Romney bests Santorum by a 39% to 31% margin. Gingrich earns support from 21% of these voters. Among Somewhat Conservative voters, Romney draws 49% support to Santorum’s 23% and Gingrich’s 13%.

Seventy-six percent (76%) of likely Republican primary voters in California have at least a somewhat favorable opinion of Romney, while 71% feel that way about Santorum. Fifty-three percent (53%) share a favorable impression Gingrich, but just 31% view Paul favorably.