Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) North Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) North Carolina 2014 Senate Poll

• Kay Hagan (D) 48% (45%) {40%} [44%] (40%)
• Thom Tillis (R) 46% (39%) {45%} [45%] (47%) 
• Some other candidate 2% (6%) {6%} [5%] (3%)
• Undecided 4% (9%) {9%} [7%] (10%)

Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression of Kay Hagan?

• Very favorable 29%
• Somewhat favorable 21%
• Somewhat unfavorable 14%
• Very unfavorable 32%
  

Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression of Thom Tillis?

• Very favorable 22%
• Somewhat favorable 25%
• Somewhat unfavorable 14%
• Very unfavorable 33%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Kay Hagan 50% / 46% {+4%}
• Thom Tillis 47% / 47% {0%}

Survey of 970 likely voters was conducted October 6-7, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 8-10, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 5-6, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 7-8, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 22-23, 2014 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Among the 85% of Tar Heel voters who say they are definitely going to vote in this election, the race is a tie at 48% apiece. But just 67% say they are certain at this point who they will vote for. Among those who are certain of their vote, Tillis leads 57% to 43%, but among those who could still change their minds, Hagan has a better than two-to-one lead – 56% to 25%.

Hagan has the support of 80% of North Carolina Democrats. Tillis has the backing of 84% of the state’s Republicans and leads by just three points among voters not affiliated with either of the major political parties.

The incumbent leads by 11 points among women voters in the state, while Tillis is ahead by eight among men.