Poll Watch: NBC News/Wall Street Journal 2012 Presidential Survey

NBC/WSJ 2012 Presidential Poll

Likely Voters

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 49% {50%}
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 46% {45%}

Registered Voters

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 51% {50%} (48%) [49%] {47%} (47%) [49%] {50%} (49%) [47%] {49%} (46%) [46%] {48%} [49%] {49%} [47%]
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 44% {44%} (44%) [43%] {44%} (43%) [43%] {44%} (43%) [45%] {43%} (44%) [45%] {41%} [43%] {40%} [40%]

(Among Obama Voters) Would you definitely vote for Barack Obama, probably vote for Barack Obama but are still thinking about it, or are you just leaning toward voting for Obama?

• Definitely vote for Obama 80% {83%} (76%) [78%] {78%} (73%) [74%]
• Probably vote for Obama, but still thinking about it 10% {9%} (13%) [13%] {10%} (13%) [13%]
• Just leaning toward voting for Obama 10% {8%} (10%) [9%] {12%} (13%) [12%]

(Among Romney Voters) Would you definitely vote for Mitt Romney, probably vote for Mitt Romney but are still thinking about it, or are you just leaning toward voting for Romney?

• Definitely vote for Romney 81% {79%} (72%) [72%] {68%} (72%) [65%]
• Probably vote for Romney, but still thinking about it 10% {13%} (15%) [12%] {20%} (14%) [16%]
• Just leaning toward voting for Romney 9% {8%} (13%) [15%] {12%} (14%) [19%]

Definitely Vote for Candidate

• Barack Obama 41% {41%} (37%) [38%] {37%} (34%) [37%]
• Mitt Romney 35% {34%} (32%) [31%] {30%} (31%) [28%]

If the next election for president were held today, with Mitt Romney as the Republican candidate, Barack Obama as the Democratic candidate, Gary Johnson the Libertarian
Candidate, and Jill Stein the Green Candidate for whom would you vote?

Likely Voters

• Barack Obama 48%
• Mitt Romney 43%
• Gary Johnson 3%
• Jill Stein 2%

Registered Voters

• Barack Obama 48%
• Mitt Romney 41%
• Gary Johnson 4%
• Jill Stein 2%

Regardless of who you are voting for, when it comes to Barack Obama's and Joe Biden's campaign, would you say that they have a message and you know what they would do if elected, or would you say that they do NOT have a message and you do NOT know what they would do if elected?

• Have A Message/Know What They Would Do If Elected 65%
• Do Not Have A Message/Do Not Know What They Would Do If Elected 28%

Regardless of who you are voting for, when it comes to Mitt Romney's and Paul Ryan's campaign, would you say that they have a message and you know what they would do if elected, or would you say that they do NOT have a message and you do NOT know what they would do if elected?

• Have A Message/Know What They Would Do If Elected 52%
• Do Not Have A Message/Do Not Know What They Would Do If Elected 40%

And, compared to when Barack Obama became President—do you think that the country is better off, worse off or in about the same place?

• Better off 37% {38%} (31%)
• Worse off 40% {41%} (42%)
• Same place 23% {21%} (27%)

Now, who do you think is better prepared to lead the country for the NEXT four years - Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?

• Barack Obama 48% {47%}
• Mitt Romney 35% {36%}

Now, thinking specifically about the economy, who do you think is better prepared to create jobs and improve the economy over the NEXT four years - Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?

• Mitt Romney 43%
• Barack Obama 42%

Do you think the U.S. economy is recovering or is not recovering? 

• Economy is recovering 57% {51%} [50%] 
• Economy is not recovering 39% {45%} [46%] 

Now, whether or not you plan to vote for him, if Barack Obama were to become the next president, how comfortable are you with him as president: very comfortable, fairly comfortable, not really comfortable, or not at all comfortable?

• Very comfortable 37%
• Fairly comfortable 20%
• Not really comfortable 11%
• Not at all comfortable 32%

Now, whether or not you plan to vote for him, if Mitt Romney were to become the next president, how comfortable are you with him as president: very comfortable, fairly comfortable, not really comfortable, or not at all comfortable?

• Very comfortable 22%
• Fairly comfortable 28%
  
• Not really comfortable 17%
• Not at all comfortable 33%

How important will the upcoming presidential debates be in helping you decide whom to support for president--will they be extremely important, quite important, just somewhat important, or not at all important?

• Extremely important 22%
• Quite important 16%
• Just somewhat important 34%
• Not at all important 28%
  

Has what you have you seen, read, or heard in the past couple of weeks about Barack Obama and his campaign for president given you a more favorable impression of him or a less favorable impression of him?

• More favorable 38% (30%) [27%]
• Less favorable 36% (40%) [44%]

Has what you have you seen, read, or heard in the past couple of weeks about Mitt Romney and his campaign for president given you a more favorable impression of him or a less favorable impression of him?

• More favorable 28% (32%) [28%]
• Less favorable 51% (44%) [43%]

I'd like you to compare Barack Obama and Mitt Romney on a few qualities that people might look for in a president. For each one, please tell me whether you think that Barack Obama would be better or Mitt Romney would be better on that item.

Who do you think would be better when it comes to:

Being a good commander-in-chief

• Obama 47% {45%} (45%) [45%]
• Romney 39% {38%} (38%) [35%]

Looking out for the middle class

• Obama 53% {53%} [49%]
• Romney 34% {34%} [33%]

Changing business as usual in Washington

• Romney 36% (37%) [33%]
• Obama 36% (31%) [32%]

Now I'd like you to compare Barack Obama and Mitt Romney on a few issues. For each one, please tell me whether you think that Barack Obama or Mitt Romney would be better on that issue.
 
Dealing with Medicare

• Obama 48% {47%} [42%]
• Romney 36% {37%} [34%]

Dealing with taxes

• Obama 46% {45%} [40%]
• Romney 41% {39%} [38%]

Dealing with the economy

• Romney 45% {43%} [43%]
• Obama 42% {43%} [37%]

Handling foreign policy

• Obama 46% [47%]
• Romney 40% [32%]

Dealing with immigration

• Obama 45% [38%]
• Romney 31% [36%]

Handling the situation in the Middle East

• Obama 48%
• Romney 32%

Dealing with the economic challenges we face from China

• Romney 45%
• Obama 37%

The federal budget deficit

• Romney 43%
• Obama 34%

Rate your feelings toward each one as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative.

Barack Obama

• Very positive 37% {35%} (31%) [33%]
• Somewhat positive 15% {13%} (17%) [16%]
• Neutral 6% {9%} (8%) [8%]
• Somewhat negative 11% {11%} (13%) [11%]
• Very negative 31% {31%} (30%) [32%]

Mitt Romney

• Very positive 19% {18%} (18%) [13%]
• Somewhat positive 22% {20%} (20%) [22%]
• Neutral 14% {18%} (17%) [23%]
• Somewhat negative 14% {16%} (15%) [16%]
• Very negative 30% {27%} (29%) [24%]

Paul Ryan

• Very positive 23% (19%)
• Somewhat positive 14% (14%)
• Neutral 18% (18%)
• Somewhat negative 13% (11%)
• Very negative 20% (21%)

Joe Biden

• Very positive 18% (15%) [15%]
• Somewhat positive 19% (21%) [20%]
• Neutral 19% (20%) [23%]
• Somewhat negative 14% (14%) [14%]
• Very negative 24% (26%) [23%]

In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

• Approve 49% {50%} (48%) [49%]
• Disapprove 48% {48%} (49%) [48%]

Do you generally approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing in handling the economy?

• Approve 46% {47%} (44%) [44%]
• Disapprove 51% {51%} (54%) [53%]

Do you generally approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing in handling foreign policy?

• Approve 49% {49%} (54%) [53%]
• Disapprove 46% {46%} (40%) [41%]

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the situation in Egypt, Libya, and the political unrest in other Arab countries?

• Approve 45%
• Disapprove 46%

If Iran continues with its nuclear research and is close to developing a nuclear weapon, do you believe that the United States should or should not initiate military action to destroy Iran's ability to make nuclear weapons? 

• Should initiate military action 58%
• Should not initiate military action 33%

Barack Obama recently said that if you have been successful, you did not get there on your own. There was a great teacher somewhere in your life. Somebody helped to create the American system that allowed you to thrive. He said if you have a business, you didn’t build that, somebody else made that happen. When we succeed, we succeed because of our individual initiative, but also because we do things together. Does this make you feel more positive or more negative about Barack Obama, does it not make much difference in your opinion or do you not know enough about this to have an opinion at this time?

• More positive 36%
• More negative 32%
• Not much difference 26%
• Don’t know enough 6%
  

Mitt Romney recently said forty seven percent (47%) of people will vote for President Obama no matter what because they are dependent upon government, believe they are victims, and believe the government has a responsibility to care for them. He said his message of low taxes does not connect with the forty-seven percent (47%) of Americans who pay no income taxes so his job is not to worry about those people as he will never convince them they should take personal responsibility for their lives. Does this make you feel more positive or more negative about Mitt Romney, does it not make much difference in your opinion or do you not know enough about this to have an opinion at this time?

• More positive 23%
• More negative 45%
• Not much difference 24%
• Don’t know enough 8%

In general, do you think that it is better for the same political party to control both the Congress and the presidency, so they can work together more closely, or do you think that it is better to have different political parties controlling the Congress and the presidency to prevent either one from going too far?

• Better if same party controls Congress and the presidency 52%
• Better if different parties control Congress and the presidency 39%
  

Survey of 1,000 registered voters, including 832 likely voters, was conducted September 26-30, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points among registered voters; +/- 3.4 percentage points among likely voters.  Party ID (among registered voters): 32% {32%} (34%) [35%] Democrat; 26% {25%} (27%) [23%] Republican; 40% {38%} (36%) [39%] Independent.  Ideology: 38% {37%} (35%) [34%] Moderate; 21% {19%} (22%) [20%] Somewhat conservative; 16% {16%} (18%) [19%] Very conservative; 14% {14%} (14%) [15%] Somewhat liberal; 8% {10%} (9%) [10%] Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted September 12-16, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 16-20, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 18-22, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 20-24, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 16-20, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 13-17, 2012 are in square brackets.   Results from the poll conducted February 29 - March 3, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 22-24, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 7-11, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 2-5, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 6-10, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 27-31, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 14-17, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 9-13, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 31 - April 4, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 24-28, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 13-17, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 9-13, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September, 2010 are in curly brackets.

Poll Watch: Suffolk University/WSVN-TV Florida 2012 Presidential Survey

Suffolk University/WSVN-TV Florida 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama 46% (46%) {42%} [42%] (42%)
• Mitt Romney 43% (45%) {47%} [42%] (43%)
• Gary Johnson 1%
• Roseanne Barr 1%
• Jill Stein 1%
• Rocky Anderson 0%
• Tom Hoefling 0%
• Peta Lindsay 0%
• Stewart Alexander 0%
• Thomas Robert Stevens 0%
• Andre Barnett 0%
• Virgil Goode 0%
• Undecided 7%

Who has the best plan to fix the economy?

• Barack Obama 43%
• Mitt Romney 43%

Who do you better connect with?

• Barack Obama 48%
• Mitt Romney 41%

Who is the better debater?

• Barack Obama 52%
• Mitt Romney 19%

Who will do more for Florida?

• Barack Obama 41%
• Mitt Romney 38%

Which campaign has been more negative in tone?

• Romney campaign 42%
• Obama campaign 37%

Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?

• Approve 48% (47%) {40%} [41%] (41%)
• Disapprove 48% (46%) {49%} [50%] (48%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Barack Obama 51% (50%) {47%} [45%] (48%) / 46% (45%) {48%} [48%] (44%) {+5%}
• Mitt Romney 45% (42%) {44%} / 47% (45%) {37%} {-2%} 

Overall, do you feel that the Affordable Care Act signed into law in 2010, sometimes called Obamacare, is generally good for Florida or generally bad? 

• Generally good 44%
• Generally bad 45%

Do you generally support or generally oppose the Obama Administration’s foreign policy concerning Israel?

• Generally support 42%
• Generally oppose 42%

Despite who you are personally voting for, when all the votes are counted, who do you think will be elected President this November – Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

• Barack Obama 62% (51%)
• Mitt Romney 29% (31%)

Survey of 600 likely voters was conducted September 27-30, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Party registration: 41% (41%) {41%} [41%] (41%) Democrat; 35% (37%) {37%} [36%] (36%) Republican; 24% (23%) {23%} [23%] (23%) Independent.  Click here to view crosstabs.  Results from the poll conducted May 6-8, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 22-24, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 26-30, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 10-12, 2011 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC 2012 Latino Presidential Survey

CNN/ORC 2012 Latino Presidential Poll

Likely Voters

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 70%
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 26%

Registered Voters

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 73%
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 22%

Income Under $50K

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 79%
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 17%

Income $50K or more

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 65%
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 31%

I'm going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me if you think Barack Obama or Mitt Romney would better handle that issue if they were elected President.

Registered Voters

THE ECONOMY

• Barack Obama 68%
• Mitt Romney 29%

THE FEDERAL BUDGET DEFICIT

• Mitt Romney 60%
• Barack Obama 33%

HEALTH CARE

• Barack Obama 74%
• Mitt Romney 21%

IMMIGRATION POLICY

• Barack Obama 73%
• Mitt Romney 22%

EDUCATION

• Barack Obama 78%
• Mitt Romney 20%

UNEMPLOYMENT

• Barack Obama 70%
• Mitt Romney 24%

MORTGAGE AND HOUSING ISSUES

• Barack Obama 67%
• Mitt Romney 27%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

Registered Voters

• Approve 66%
• Disapprove 30%

Survey of 462 Hispanic/Latino registered voters, including 328 Hispanic/Latino likely voters, was conducted September 25 - October 1, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points among registered voters; +/- 5.5 percentage points among likely voters.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Ohio 2012 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Ohio 2012 Senate Poll

• Sherrod Brown (D) 49% [48%] (47%) {46%} [45%] (47%) {49%} [48%] (48%) {48%} [48%]
• Josh Mandel (R) 41% [40%] (37%) {39%} [37%] (36%) {34%} [40%] (33%) {31%} [32%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Josh Mandel 33% [33%] (26%) {24%} [25%] (14%) {14%} [12%] (14%) {15%} [13%] / 48% [44%] (42%) {39%} [30%] (25%) {19%} [21%] (20%) {18%} [12%] {-15%}

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Sherrod Brown's job performance?

• Approve 42% [42%] (41%) {38%} [40%] (42%) {42%} [40%] (37%) {39%} [40%] (40%)
• Disapprove 43% [44%] (37%) {42%} [35%] (34%) {33%} [35%] (34%) {28%} [30%] (37%)

Survey of 897 likely Ohio voters was conducted September 27-30, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points. Party ID: 41% [41%] (40%) {39%} [41%] (42%) {41%} [47%] (44%) {45%} [43%] (44%) Democrat; 36% [37%] (37%) {37%} [39%] (36%) {35%} [37%] (34%) {35%} [35%] (39%) Republican; 23% [22%] (24%) {24%} [20%] (21%) {24%} [16%] (22%) {20%} [21%] (18%) Independent/Other. Political views: 33% [29%] (30%) {31%} [31%] (30%) {31%} [30%] (31%) {33%} [29%] Moderate; 24% [25%] (25%) {27%} [22%] (21%) {25%} [19%] (24%) {25%} [28%] Somewhat conservative; 17% [17%] (18%) {15%} [19%] (21%) {18%} [19%] (17%) {13%} [15%] Very conservative; 16% [17%] (18%) {17%} [18%] (18%) {20%} [21%] (19%) {16%} [19%] Somewhat liberal; 11% [11%] (10%) {9%} [9%] (10%) {7%} [10%] (8%) {13%} [7%] Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted September 7-9, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 9-12, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 21-24, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 3-6, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 28-29, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 4-6, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 13-16, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 11-14, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 19-22, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 10-13, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 10-12, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Roanoke College Virginia 2012 Senatorial Survey

Roanoke College Virginia 2012 Senate Poll

• Tim Kaine (D) 47%
• George Allen (R) 37%
• Uncertain 17%

Among Men

• George Allen (R) 45%
• Tim Kaine (D) 41%

Among Women

• Tim Kaine (D) 52%
• George Allen (R) 30%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Tim Kaine 49% / 29% {+20%}
• George Allen 38% / 34% {+4%}

Survey of 589 likely voters was conducted September 19-28, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Party ID: 36% Democrat; 27% Republican; 28% Independent; 9% Other/None. Ideology: 40% Moderate; 36% Conservative; 21% Liberal.  Gender: 45% Male; 55% Female.  Race: 81% White; 15% Black.

Inside the numbers: 

The candidates are statistically tied among White voters (Allen leads 43% - 40%), but Kaine has a very large lead among Black voters (77% - 7%). Kaine leads with Moderates (57% - 25%), but Allen leads among Independents (46% - 39%). Kaine holds leads in every region of the state except the Shenandoah Valley, which is statistically tied.

Poll Watch: Gallup 2012 Daily Presidential Tracking Survey

Gallup 2012 Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

• Barack Obama 50%
• Mitt Romney 44%  

Survey of approximately 3,050 registered voters was conducted September 25 - October 1, 2012. The margin of error is ±2 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Baltimore Sun Maryland 2012 Presidential Poll

Baltimore Sun Maryland 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama 57%
• Mitt Romney 34%

Survey of 804 likely voters was conducted September 25-27, 2012 by OpinionWorks. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Roanoke College Virginia 2012 Presidential Survey

Roanoke College Virginia 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama (D) 47%
• Mitt Romney (R) 39%
• Gary Johnson (L) 2%
• Jill Stein (G) 2%
• Virgil Goode (C) 1%
• Undecided 10%

Including "Leaners"

• Barack Obama (D) 48%
• Mitt Romney (R) 40%
• Gary Johnson (L) 2%
• Jill Stein (G) 2%
• Virgil Goode (C) 1%
• Undecided 7%

Among Democrats

• Barack Obama 94%
• Mitt Romney 1%
• Other 1%
• Undecided 4%

Among Republicans

• Mitt Romney 88%
• Barack Obama 2%
• Other 1%
• Undecided 9%

Among Independents

• Mitt Romney 45%
• Barack Obama 32%
• Other 8%
• Undecided 16%

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 45%
• Barack Obama 42%
• Other 6%
• Undecided 8%

Among Women

• Barack Obama 51%
• Mitt Romney 34%
• Other 12%
• Undecided 3%

(Among Obama Voters) Would you say that your vote for Obama is more of a vote for him or a vote against Romney? 

• Vote for Obama 74% 
• Vote against Romney 15% 

(Among Romney Voters) Would you say that your vote for Romney is more of a vote for him or a vote against Obama? 

• Vote for Romney 48% 
• Vote against Obama 34%  

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Barack Obama 50% / 41% {+9%}
• Mitt Romney 36% / 45% {-9%}

Regardless of you are voting for, which candidate, Obama or Romney, do you think would do a better job dealing with the following issues?

Reducing unemployment

• Obama 46%
• Romney 43%

Reducing the budget deficit

• Romney 49%
• Obama 39%

Taxes

• Obama 49%
• Romney 40%

Dealing with foreign policy

• Obama 52%
• Romney 38%

The War on Terror

• Obama 50%
• Romney 38%

Social security

• Obama 49%
• Romney 38%

Medicare

• Obama 51%
• Romney 38%

Health care

• Obama 50%
• Romney 39%

Immigration

• Obama 47%
• Romney 39%

Which candidate do you think is a stronger leader?

• Obama 48%
• Romney 36%

Just in general, how well do you think Barack Obama understands the needs of people like you? Very well, fairly well, not too well, or not at all well?

• Very well 33%
• Fairly well 23%
• Not too well 14%
• Not at all well 27%

Just in general, how well do you think Mitt Romney understands the needs of people like you? Very well, fairly well, not too well, or not at all well?

• Very well 12%
• Fairly well 29%
• Not too well 19%
• Not at all well 36%

In general, do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President of the United States? 

• Approve 46% 
• Disapprove 45% 

Survey of 589 likely voters was conducted September 19-28, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Party ID: 36% Democrat; 27% Republican; 28% Independent; 9% Other/None. Ideology: 40% Moderate; 36% Conservative; 21% Liberal.  Gender: 45% Male; 55% Female.  Race: 81% White; 15% Black. Click here to view crosstabs.

Poll Watch: We Ask America (R) Nevada 2012 Senatorial Survey

We Ask America (R) Nevada 2012 Senate Poll

• Dean Heller (R) 45.2%
• Shelley Berkley (D) 44.9%
• Undecided 9.9%

Among Democrats

• Shelley Berkley (D) 76.7%
• Dean Heller (R) 14.7%
  
• Undecided 8.6%

Among Republicans

• Dean Heller (R) 81.3%
• Shelley Berkley (D) 13.8%
• Undecided 4.9%

Among Independents

• Dean Heller (R) 54.7%
• Shelley Berkley (D) 28.0%
• Undecided 17.3%

Survey of 1,078 likely voters was conducted September 25-27, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points.

Poll Watch: We Ask America (R) Missouri 2012 Senatorial Survey

We Ask America (R) Missouri 2012 Senate Poll

• Claire McCaskill (D) 46.0%
• Todd Akin (R) 45.2%
• Undecided 8.8% 

Among Democrats

• Claire McCaskill (D) 87.4%
• Todd Akin (R) 8.0%
• Undecided 4.6%

Among Republicans

• Todd Akin (R) 78.8%
• Claire McCaskill (D) 12.5%
  
• Undecided 8.7%

Among Independents

• Todd Akin (R) 48.6%
• Claire McCaskill (D) 39.0%
  
• Undecided 12.4%

Survey of 1,145 likely voters was conducted September 25-27, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.

Poll Watch: We Ask America (R) Missouri 2012 Presidential Survey

We Ask America (R) Missouri 2012 Presidential Poll

• Mitt Romney 47.7% (49.01%)
• Barack Obama 44.5% (39.73%)
• Gary Johnson 2.0% (2.12%)
• Undecided 5.8% (9.14%) 

Among Democrats

• Barack Obama 86.1% (82%)
• Mitt Romney 9.8% (11%)
• Gary Johnson 0.3% (2%)
• Undecided 3.8% (5%)

Among Republicans

• Mitt Romney 82.6% (82%)
• Barack Obama 12.7% (12%)
• Gary Johnson 1.2% (0%)
• Undecided 3.5% (6%)

Among Independents

• Mitt Romney 51.4% (49%)
• Barack Obama 35.3% (31%)
• Gary Johnson 4.1% (4%)
• Undecided 9.2% (16%)

Survey of 1,145 likely voters was conducted September 25-27, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 24, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: We Ask America (R) Nevada 2012 Presidential Survey

We Ask America (R) Nevada 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama 52.5% (49%)
• Mitt Romney 42.0% (43%)
• Gary Johnson 2.3% (2%)
• Undecided 3.2% (6%)

Among Democrats

• Barack Obama 86.4% (85%)
• Mitt Romney 11.8% (11%)
• Gary Johnson 0.2% (1%)
  
• Undecided 1.6% (3%)

Among Republicans

• Mitt Romney 78.2% (69%)
• Barack Obama 18.7% (26%)
• Gary Johnson 1.5% (1%)
  
• Undecided 1.6% (4%)

Among Independents

• Mitt Romney 50.7% (49%)
  
• Barack Obama 35.3% (37%)
• Gary Johnson 5.7% (4%)
  
• Undecided 8.3% (10%)

Survey of 1,078 likely voters was conducted September 25-27, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 17-18, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) 2012 Daily Swing State Presidential Tracking Survey

Rasmussen (R) 2012 Daily Swing State Presidential Tracking Poll

• Barack Obama 50% 
• Mitt Romney 45%
• Some other candidate 3%
• Undecided 2%

Survey of approximately 1,300 likely voters was conducted September 25 - October 1, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. The swing state poll covers 11 key states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Inside the numbers:

The president’s Job Approval in the swing states is currently at 50%. Forty-nine percent (49%) disapprove. These figures include 28% who Strongly Approve and 40% who Strongly Disapprove.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) New Mexico 2012 Presidential Survey

Rasmussen (R) New Mexico 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama 51% {52%} [52%] (55%)
• Mitt Romney 40% {38%} [36%] (36%)
• Some other candidate 6%
• Undecided 2%

I’m going to read you a short list of people in the news. For each, please let me know if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression.

Mitt Romney

• Very favorable 31% {19%}
• Somewhat favorable 14% {23%}
• Somewhat unfavorable 14% {22%}
• Very unfavorable 40% {34%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mitt Romney 45% {42%} [41%] / 54% {56%} [56%] {-9%}

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president?

• Strongly approve 32% {31%} [27%] (30%)
• Somewhat approve 24% {23%} [27%] (22%)
• Somewhat disapprove 6% {10%} [9%] (12%)
• Strongly disapprove 36% {36%} [36%] (36%)

President Obama Job Approval

• Approve 56% {54%} [54%] (52%)
• Disapprove 42% {46%} [45%] (48%)

Survey of 500 likely New Mexico voters was conducted September 27, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted August 21, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 3, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 14, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Obama has a 26-point lead among female voters in New Mexico, while Romney leads among male voters in the state by five. The president is well ahead in all age demographic groups.

Voters not affiliated with either major party prefer the president by a 49% to 31% margin.

Obama also posts double-digit leads over his Republican challenger when New Mexico voters are asked whom they trust more in five key policy areas – the economy, health care, national security, taxes and energy policy.

Poll Watch: PPP/Daily Kos/SEIU (D) 2012 Weekly Presidential Tracking Survey

PPP/Daily Kos/SEIU (D) 2012 Weekly Presidential Tracking Poll

• Barack Obama 49% {50%} [50%] (50%) {50%} [49%] (47%) {48%} [48%] (46%) {48%} [48%] (48%) {49%} [50%] (50%) {47%} [48%] (48%) {49%} [49%] (50%)
• Mitt Romney 45% {45%} [46%] (44%) {44%} [45%] (45%) {46%} [47%] (46%) {46%} [45%] (45%) {45%} [42%] (42%) {46%} [46%] (45%) {44%} [44%] (44%)

Among Independents

• Mitt Romney 44% {44%} [43%] (46%) {42%} [39%] (40%) {45%} [48%] (46%) {43%} [41%] (43%) {38%} [40%] (43%) {42%} [40%] (41%) {42%} [39%] (41%)
• Barack Obama 41% {46%} [44%] (41%) {44%} [50%] (43%) {42%} [42%] (38%) {45%} [48%] (45%) {48%} [48%] (42%){43%} [48%] (46%) {41%} [48%] (48%)

Among Moderates

• Barack Obama 58% {65%} [59%] (58%) {60%} [62%] (58%) {59%} [65%] (56%) {63%} [60%] (58%) {66%} [64%] (63%) {59%} [66%] (60%) {55%} [61%] (63%)
• Mitt Romney 33% {30%} [35%] (34%) {31%} [29%] (30%) {32%} [30%] (33%) {28%} [33%] (34%) {29%} [27%] (27%) {31%} [26%] (33%) {36%} [32%] (29%)

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 50% {48%} [53%] (46%) {45%} [47%] (51%) {50%} [51%] (46%) {52%} [54%] (44%) {47%} [44%] (45%){51%} [47%] (46%) {46%} [48%] (49%)
• Barack Obama 43% {47%} [41%] (47%) {50%} [48%] (41%) {44%} [44%] (45%) {42%} [41%] (48%) {46%} [48%] (47%) {42%} [46%] (45%) {45%} [46%] (44%)  

Among Women

• Barack Obama 55% {53%} [57%] (53%) {51%} [50%] (52%) {52%} [53%] (47%) {53%} [55%] (48%) {51%} [53%] (52%) {51%} [50%] (51%) {52%} [52%] (54%)
• Mitt Romney 40% {43%} [40%] (42%) {42%} [42%] (40%) {42%} [43%] (45%) {41%} [38%] (46%) {44%} [39%] (40%) {41%} [44%] (45%) {43%} [40%] (40%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Barack Obama 49% {50%} [50%] (51%) {51%} [47%] (47%) {47%} [48%] (45%) {47%} [47%] (45%) {47%} [50%] (49%) {45%} [47%] (47%) {49%} [50%] (48%) / 48% {47%} [47%] (46%) {46%} [49%] (48%) {48%} [47%] (50%) {48%} [48%] (50%) {49%} [45%] (45%) {49%} [48%] (48%) {46%} [46%] (47%) {+1%}
• Mitt Romney 45% {46%} [43%] (43%) {41%} [43%] (42%) {42%} [41%] (41%) {39%} [42%] (42%) {40%} [39%] (39%) {39%} [40%] (39%) {38%} [38%] (36%) / 50% {48%} [51%] (51%) {52%} [50%] (48%) {49%} [50%] (49%) {47%} [48%] (48%) {48%} [50%] (51%) {47%} [50%] (48%) {48%} [48%] (51%) {-5%}

Among Independents

• Mitt Romney 44% {43%} [40%] (47%) {37%} [39%] (33%) {41%} [38%] (41%) {36%} [41%] (36%) {33%} [37%] (37%) {37%} [30%] (34%) {37%} [33%] (34%) / 49% {46%} [48%] (43%) {53%} [53%] (52%) {46%} [47%] (45%) {47%} [47%] (50%) {51%} [49%] (49%) {46%} [55%] (45%) {41%} [50%] (52%) {-5%}
• Barack Obama 45% {45%} [45%] (42%) {43%} [48%] (43%) {40%} [41%] (38%) {43%} [43%] (42%) {46%} [49%] (42%) {46%} [44%] (44%) {43%} [51%] (45%) / 51% {49%} [47%] (51%) {50%} [47%] (47%) {49%} [49%] (54%) {49%} [49%] (50%) {49%} [45%] (51%) {46%} [47%] (46%) {49%} [44%] (47%) {-6%} 

Among Moderates

• Barack Obama 60% {64%} [58%] (59%) {62%} [61%] (58%) {58%} [65%] (55%) {64%} [58%] (55%) {65%} [64%] (63%) {58%} [66%] (59%) {56%} [63%] (63%) / 35% {33%} [38%] (36%) {33%} [35%] (34%) {34%} [30%] (39%) {30%} [36%] (38%) {32%} [30%] (30%) {34%} [30%] (34%) {36%} [33%] (33%) {+25%}
• Mitt Romney 32% {32%} [34%] (36%) {27%} [31%] (29%) {30%} [25%] (31%) {25%} [32%] (33%) {26%} [23%] (27%) {28%} [25%] (29%) {35%} [31%] (29%) / 62% {63%} [60%] (56%) {63%} [62%] (60%) {58%} [65%] (59%) {61%} [57%] (57%) {60%} [65%] (60%) {59%} [64%] (58%) {52%} [55%] (61%) {-30%}

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 48% {48%} [50%] (45%) {42%} [45%] (49%) {45%} [44%] (41%) {44%} [50%] (43%) {42%} [43%] (41%) {45%} [43%] (41%) {40%} [42%] (41%) / 47% {47%} [45%] (48%) {52%} [50%] (41%) {47%} [46%] (51%) {45%} [42%] (47%) {47%} [48%] (51%) {44%} [48%] (46%) {47%} [45%] (46%) {+1%}
• Barack Obama 44% {47%} [42%] (48%) {50%} [46%] (42%) {44%} [44%] (44%) {41%} [42%] (45%) {44%} [48%] (47%) {41%} [46%] (45%) {45%} [47%] (43%) / 52% {50%} [55%] (49%) {47%} [51%] (54%) {52%} [52%] (51%) {56%} [54%] (50%) {52%} [47%] (48%) {54%} [50%] (48%) {48%} [51%] (51%) {-8%}    

Among Women

• Barack Obama 53% {52%} [57%] (53%) {51%} [48%] (51%) {49%} [52%] (46%) {52%} [51%] (45%) {49%} [52%] (51%) {49%} [49%] (49%) {52%} [53%] (52%) / 44% {45%} [40%] (43%) {45%} [46%] (43%) {44%} [42%] (49%) {42%} [43%] (50%) {47%} [43%] (43%) {44%} [46%] (47%) {43%} [42%] (44%) {+9%}
• Mitt Romney 42% {44%} [37%] (41%) {40%} [42%] (36%) {40%} [39%] (41%) {35%} [35%] (42%) {39%} [35%] (37%) {33%} [36%] (37%) {35%} [34%] (32%) / 52% {49%} [57%] (53%) {53%} [50%] (56%) {50%} [53%] (46%) {48%} [54%] (49%) {49%} [52%] (51%) {51%} [51%] (50%) {49%} [51%] (55%) {-10%}

Do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama’s job performance?

• Approve 47% {47%} [48%] (47%) {48%} [45%] (43%) {44%} [47%] (42%) {44%} [45%] (44%) {44%} [47%] (46%) {45%} [46%] (45%) {48%} [47%] (46%)
• Disapprove 49% {49%} [50%] (48%) {48%} [50%] (52%) {50%} [49%] (53%) {49%} [50%] (51%) {50%} [47%] (48%) {50%} [49%] (50%) {47%} [48%] (48%)

Among Independents

• Approve 42% {39%} [43%] (37%) {40%} [45%] (38%)
• Disapprove 52% {53%} [52%] (54%) {51%} [47%] (53%)

Do you think Republicans would be better off if they had nominated someone other than Mitt Romney, or not?

• They would be better off 46%
• They would not 38%

Among Independents

• They would be better off 47%
• They would not 36%

Among Moderates

• They would be better off 55%
• They would not 30%

Among Republicans

• They would be better off 26%
• They would not 57%

Do you think pollsters are intentionally skewing their polls this year to help Barack Obama, or not?

• They are intentionally skewing their polls 42%
• They are not 40%

Among Independents

• They are intentionally skewing their polls 45%
• They are not 40%

Among Moderates

• They are intentionally skewing their polls 31%
• They are not 49%

Among Republicans

• They are intentionally skewing their polls 71%
• They are not 13%

Who do you think will win the debates: Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

• Barack Obama 48%
• Mitt Romney 34%

Survey of 1,100 likely voters was conducted September 27-30, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points.  Party ID: 39% {40%} [44%] (42%) {43%} [35%] (38%) {36%} [38%] (39%) {38%} [38%] (37%) {38%} [41%] (41%) {40%} [38%] (38%) {43%} [40%] (41%) Democrat; 36% {33%} [38%] (35%) {36%} [35%] (37%) {34%} [34%] (32%) {37%} [36%] (35%) {36%} [33%] (32%) {35%} [36%] (35%) {32%} [34%] (36%) Republican; 25% {26%} [19%] (23%) {22%} [30%] (25%) {29%} [27%] (29%) {25%} [27%] (27%) {26%} [26%] (27%) {25%} [26%] (26%) {25%} [26%] (24%) Independent/Other.  Political views: 41% {41%} [40%] (37%) {37%} [40%] (41%) {38%} [39%] (39%) {40%} [38%] (37%) {42%} [38%] (37%) {37%} [41%] (40%) {37%} [38%] (38%) Conservative; 41% {39%} [43%] (44%) {41%} [43%] (42%) {46%} [44%] (42%) {47%} [41%] (47%) {41%} [46%] (45%) {46%} [42%] (41%) {46%} [46%] (43%) Moderate; 18% {20%} [17%] (19%) {22%} [17%] (17%) {16%} [17%] (19%) {13%} [21%] (16%) {18%} [16%] (18%) {16%} [17%] (19%) {17%} [16%] (19%) Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted September 20-23, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 13-16, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 7-9, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 23-26, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 16-19, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 9-12, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 2-5, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 26-29, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 19-22, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 12-15, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 28 - July 1, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 21-24, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted June 14-17, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 7-10, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 31 - June 3, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 17-20, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 10-13, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 3-6, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 26-29, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 19-22, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 12-15, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) 2012 Daily Presidential Tracking Survey

Rasmussen (R) 2012 Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

• Barack Obama 48%
• Mitt Romney 47%
• Some other candidate 1%
• Undecided 2%

Survey of 1,500 likely voters was conducted September 29 - October 1, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel.

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac 2012 Presidential Survey

Quinnipiac 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama 49% (46%) {46%} [46%] (45%) {47%} [42%] (45%) {47%} [47%] (44%)
• Mitt Romney 45% (43%) {42%} [44%] (44%) {42%} [46%] (45%) {41%} [41%] (45%)

Among Independents

• Mitt Romney 47% (43%) {46%} [41%] (42%) {44%} [45%] (46%) {42%} [38%] (46%)
• Barack Obama 45% (41%) {39%} [46%] (43%) {39%} [40%] (40%) {40%} [45%] (35%)

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 52% (47%) {46%} [47%] (48%) {46%} [47%] (47%) {45%} [45%] (51%)
• Barack Obama 42% (40%) {43%} [43%] (41%) {45%} [38%] (43%) {44%} [43%] (40%)

Among Women

• Barack Obama 56% (51%) {49%} [49%] (48%) {50%} [47%] (46%) {50%} [50%] (48%)
• Mitt Romney 38% (39%) {39%} [41%] (39%) {38%} [44%] (43%) {39%} [38%] (39%)

College Degree

• Barack Obama 54% (51%) {51%} [49%] {50%} [45%] (49%) {50%} [51%] (51%)
• Mitt Romney 41% (41%) {41%} [45%] {43%} [46%] (42%) {40%} [41%] (42%)

No College Degree

• Mitt Romney 48% (44%) {42%} [43%] {41%} [45%] (46%) {42%} [42%] (46%)
• Barack Obama 46% (43%) {45%} [45%] {46%} [41%] (43%) {46%} [45%] (42%)

(Among Obama Voters) Would you describe your support for Barack Obama as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike Mitt Romney?

• Strongly favor Obama 74%
• Like Obama, but with reservations 21%
• Dislike Romney 5%

(Among Romney Voters) Would you describe your support for Mitt Romney as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike Barack Obama?

• Strongly favor Romney 60%
• Like Romney, but with reservations 21%
• Dislike Obama 17%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Barack Obama 50% (45%) {45%} [47%] (47%) {49%} [42%] (47%) / 47% (48%) {49%} [48%] (46%) {46%} [53%] (47%) {+3%}
• Mitt Romney 45% (37%) {33%} [35%] (36%) {35%} [39%] (36%) / 48% (41%) {38%} [43%] (31%) {35%} [28%] (27%) {-3%}

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?  

• Approve 48% (45%) {47%} [45%] (44%) {47%} [41%]
• Disapprove 49% (49%) {48%} [49%] (50%) {49%} [55%]

Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy?

• Barack Obama 48% (45%) {43%} [44%] (41%) {46%} [39%] (42%)
• Mitt Romney 47% (46%) {47%} [45%] (46%) {43%} [49%] (46%)

Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on national security, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

• Barack Obama 50% 
• Mitt Romney 44%

Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job handling an international crisis?

• Barack Obama 52%
  
• Mitt Romney 43%

Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on health care?

• Barack Obama 50% (45%) {44%}
  
• Mitt Romney 45% (44%) {43%}

Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the budget deficit?

• Mitt Romney 52%
• Barack Obama 42%

If you or a family member were at risk of violence in a foreign country, who would you want in the White House, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

• Barack Obama 50%
  
• Mitt Romney 45%

Would you say that Barack Obama cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?

• Yes 60% (56%) {57%} [58%] [54%] (54%)
• No 38% (41%) {39%} [40%] [43%] (42%)

Would you say that Mitt Romney cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?

• Yes 46% (42%) {44%} [40%] [43%]
• No 51% (50%) {43%} [50%] [35%]

If Barack Obama is reelected, do you think his economic policies would help your personal financial situation, hurt your personal financial situation, or won't make a difference?

• Help 28%
• Hurt 41%
• No difference 30%

If Mitt Romney is elected, do you think his economic policies would help your personal financial situation, hurt your personal financial situation, or won't make a difference?

• Help 35%
• Hurt 33%
  
• No difference 29%

If Barack Obama is re-elected President, do you think the policies of his administration will favor the rich, favor the middle class, favor the poor, or will they treat all groups the same?

• Favor the rich 9%
• Favor the middle class 27%
  
• Favor the poor 31%
• Treat all groups the same 26%

If Mitt Romney is elected President, do you think the policies of his administration will favor the rich, favor the middle class, favor the poor, or will they treat all groups the same?

• Favor the rich 55%
• Favor the middle class 9%
  
• Favor the poor 1%
• Treat all groups the same 33%

Who do you blame more for the current condition of the U.S. economy, former President George W. Bush or President Barack Obama?

• George W. Bush 50%
• Barack Obama 42%
  

Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think will win the debates, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

• Barack Obama 54% 
• Mitt Romney 28%

Survey of 1,912 likely voters was conducted September 25-30, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 2.2 percentage points.  Party ID: 30% (31%) {31%} [30%] (32%) Democrat; 24% (27%) {25%} [28%] (25%) Republican; 38% (36%) {38%} [33%] (35%) Independent; 8% (6%) {6%} [8%] (6%) Other.  Results from the poll conducted July 1-8, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 11-17, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 14-20, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 14-20, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 25-31, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 27 - October 3, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 16-27, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 5-11, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 31 - June 6, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 8-15, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Deseret News/KSL Utah 4th Congressional District Survey

Deseret News/KSL Utah 4th Congressional District Poll

• Mia Love (R) 49%
• Jim Matheson (D) 43%
• Undecided 8%

Survey of 414 registered voters was conducted September 26-29, 2012, by Dan Jones & Associates. The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points.

UMass Lowell-Boston Herald Massachusetts Senate Debate