Poll Watch: NBC News/Wall Street Journal 2012 Presidential Survey

NBC/WSJ 2012 Presidential Poll

Likely Voters

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 49% {50%}
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 46% {45%}

Registered Voters

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 51% {50%} (48%) [49%] {47%} (47%) [49%] {50%} (49%) [47%] {49%} (46%) [46%] {48%} [49%] {49%} [47%]
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 44% {44%} (44%) [43%] {44%} (43%) [43%] {44%} (43%) [45%] {43%} (44%) [45%] {41%} [43%] {40%} [40%]

(Among Obama Voters) Would you definitely vote for Barack Obama, probably vote for Barack Obama but are still thinking about it, or are you just leaning toward voting for Obama?

• Definitely vote for Obama 80% {83%} (76%) [78%] {78%} (73%) [74%]
• Probably vote for Obama, but still thinking about it 10% {9%} (13%) [13%] {10%} (13%) [13%]
• Just leaning toward voting for Obama 10% {8%} (10%) [9%] {12%} (13%) [12%]

(Among Romney Voters) Would you definitely vote for Mitt Romney, probably vote for Mitt Romney but are still thinking about it, or are you just leaning toward voting for Romney?

• Definitely vote for Romney 81% {79%} (72%) [72%] {68%} (72%) [65%]
• Probably vote for Romney, but still thinking about it 10% {13%} (15%) [12%] {20%} (14%) [16%]
• Just leaning toward voting for Romney 9% {8%} (13%) [15%] {12%} (14%) [19%]

Definitely Vote for Candidate

• Barack Obama 41% {41%} (37%) [38%] {37%} (34%) [37%]
• Mitt Romney 35% {34%} (32%) [31%] {30%} (31%) [28%]

If the next election for president were held today, with Mitt Romney as the Republican candidate, Barack Obama as the Democratic candidate, Gary Johnson the Libertarian
Candidate, and Jill Stein the Green Candidate for whom would you vote?

Likely Voters

• Barack Obama 48%
• Mitt Romney 43%
• Gary Johnson 3%
• Jill Stein 2%

Registered Voters

• Barack Obama 48%
• Mitt Romney 41%
• Gary Johnson 4%
• Jill Stein 2%

Regardless of who you are voting for, when it comes to Barack Obama's and Joe Biden's campaign, would you say that they have a message and you know what they would do if elected, or would you say that they do NOT have a message and you do NOT know what they would do if elected?

• Have A Message/Know What They Would Do If Elected 65%
• Do Not Have A Message/Do Not Know What They Would Do If Elected 28%

Regardless of who you are voting for, when it comes to Mitt Romney's and Paul Ryan's campaign, would you say that they have a message and you know what they would do if elected, or would you say that they do NOT have a message and you do NOT know what they would do if elected?

• Have A Message/Know What They Would Do If Elected 52%
• Do Not Have A Message/Do Not Know What They Would Do If Elected 40%

And, compared to when Barack Obama became President—do you think that the country is better off, worse off or in about the same place?

• Better off 37% {38%} (31%)
• Worse off 40% {41%} (42%)
• Same place 23% {21%} (27%)

Now, who do you think is better prepared to lead the country for the NEXT four years - Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?

• Barack Obama 48% {47%}
• Mitt Romney 35% {36%}

Now, thinking specifically about the economy, who do you think is better prepared to create jobs and improve the economy over the NEXT four years - Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?

• Mitt Romney 43%
• Barack Obama 42%

Do you think the U.S. economy is recovering or is not recovering? 

• Economy is recovering 57% {51%} [50%] 
• Economy is not recovering 39% {45%} [46%] 

Now, whether or not you plan to vote for him, if Barack Obama were to become the next president, how comfortable are you with him as president: very comfortable, fairly comfortable, not really comfortable, or not at all comfortable?

• Very comfortable 37%
• Fairly comfortable 20%
• Not really comfortable 11%
• Not at all comfortable 32%

Now, whether or not you plan to vote for him, if Mitt Romney were to become the next president, how comfortable are you with him as president: very comfortable, fairly comfortable, not really comfortable, or not at all comfortable?

• Very comfortable 22%
• Fairly comfortable 28%
  
• Not really comfortable 17%
• Not at all comfortable 33%

How important will the upcoming presidential debates be in helping you decide whom to support for president--will they be extremely important, quite important, just somewhat important, or not at all important?

• Extremely important 22%
• Quite important 16%
• Just somewhat important 34%
• Not at all important 28%
  

Has what you have you seen, read, or heard in the past couple of weeks about Barack Obama and his campaign for president given you a more favorable impression of him or a less favorable impression of him?

• More favorable 38% (30%) [27%]
• Less favorable 36% (40%) [44%]

Has what you have you seen, read, or heard in the past couple of weeks about Mitt Romney and his campaign for president given you a more favorable impression of him or a less favorable impression of him?

• More favorable 28% (32%) [28%]
• Less favorable 51% (44%) [43%]

I'd like you to compare Barack Obama and Mitt Romney on a few qualities that people might look for in a president. For each one, please tell me whether you think that Barack Obama would be better or Mitt Romney would be better on that item.

Who do you think would be better when it comes to:

Being a good commander-in-chief

• Obama 47% {45%} (45%) [45%]
• Romney 39% {38%} (38%) [35%]

Looking out for the middle class

• Obama 53% {53%} [49%]
• Romney 34% {34%} [33%]

Changing business as usual in Washington

• Romney 36% (37%) [33%]
• Obama 36% (31%) [32%]

Now I'd like you to compare Barack Obama and Mitt Romney on a few issues. For each one, please tell me whether you think that Barack Obama or Mitt Romney would be better on that issue.
 
Dealing with Medicare

• Obama 48% {47%} [42%]
• Romney 36% {37%} [34%]

Dealing with taxes

• Obama 46% {45%} [40%]
• Romney 41% {39%} [38%]

Dealing with the economy

• Romney 45% {43%} [43%]
• Obama 42% {43%} [37%]

Handling foreign policy

• Obama 46% [47%]
• Romney 40% [32%]

Dealing with immigration

• Obama 45% [38%]
• Romney 31% [36%]

Handling the situation in the Middle East

• Obama 48%
• Romney 32%

Dealing with the economic challenges we face from China

• Romney 45%
• Obama 37%

The federal budget deficit

• Romney 43%
• Obama 34%

Rate your feelings toward each one as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative.

Barack Obama

• Very positive 37% {35%} (31%) [33%]
• Somewhat positive 15% {13%} (17%) [16%]
• Neutral 6% {9%} (8%) [8%]
• Somewhat negative 11% {11%} (13%) [11%]
• Very negative 31% {31%} (30%) [32%]

Mitt Romney

• Very positive 19% {18%} (18%) [13%]
• Somewhat positive 22% {20%} (20%) [22%]
• Neutral 14% {18%} (17%) [23%]
• Somewhat negative 14% {16%} (15%) [16%]
• Very negative 30% {27%} (29%) [24%]

Paul Ryan

• Very positive 23% (19%)
• Somewhat positive 14% (14%)
• Neutral 18% (18%)
• Somewhat negative 13% (11%)
• Very negative 20% (21%)

Joe Biden

• Very positive 18% (15%) [15%]
• Somewhat positive 19% (21%) [20%]
• Neutral 19% (20%) [23%]
• Somewhat negative 14% (14%) [14%]
• Very negative 24% (26%) [23%]

In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

• Approve 49% {50%} (48%) [49%]
• Disapprove 48% {48%} (49%) [48%]

Do you generally approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing in handling the economy?

• Approve 46% {47%} (44%) [44%]
• Disapprove 51% {51%} (54%) [53%]

Do you generally approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing in handling foreign policy?

• Approve 49% {49%} (54%) [53%]
• Disapprove 46% {46%} (40%) [41%]

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the situation in Egypt, Libya, and the political unrest in other Arab countries?

• Approve 45%
• Disapprove 46%

If Iran continues with its nuclear research and is close to developing a nuclear weapon, do you believe that the United States should or should not initiate military action to destroy Iran's ability to make nuclear weapons? 

• Should initiate military action 58%
• Should not initiate military action 33%

Barack Obama recently said that if you have been successful, you did not get there on your own. There was a great teacher somewhere in your life. Somebody helped to create the American system that allowed you to thrive. He said if you have a business, you didn’t build that, somebody else made that happen. When we succeed, we succeed because of our individual initiative, but also because we do things together. Does this make you feel more positive or more negative about Barack Obama, does it not make much difference in your opinion or do you not know enough about this to have an opinion at this time?

• More positive 36%
• More negative 32%
• Not much difference 26%
• Don’t know enough 6%
  

Mitt Romney recently said forty seven percent (47%) of people will vote for President Obama no matter what because they are dependent upon government, believe they are victims, and believe the government has a responsibility to care for them. He said his message of low taxes does not connect with the forty-seven percent (47%) of Americans who pay no income taxes so his job is not to worry about those people as he will never convince them they should take personal responsibility for their lives. Does this make you feel more positive or more negative about Mitt Romney, does it not make much difference in your opinion or do you not know enough about this to have an opinion at this time?

• More positive 23%
• More negative 45%
• Not much difference 24%
• Don’t know enough 8%

In general, do you think that it is better for the same political party to control both the Congress and the presidency, so they can work together more closely, or do you think that it is better to have different political parties controlling the Congress and the presidency to prevent either one from going too far?

• Better if same party controls Congress and the presidency 52%
• Better if different parties control Congress and the presidency 39%
  

Survey of 1,000 registered voters, including 832 likely voters, was conducted September 26-30, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points among registered voters; +/- 3.4 percentage points among likely voters.  Party ID (among registered voters): 32% {32%} (34%) [35%] Democrat; 26% {25%} (27%) [23%] Republican; 40% {38%} (36%) [39%] Independent.  Ideology: 38% {37%} (35%) [34%] Moderate; 21% {19%} (22%) [20%] Somewhat conservative; 16% {16%} (18%) [19%] Very conservative; 14% {14%} (14%) [15%] Somewhat liberal; 8% {10%} (9%) [10%] Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted September 12-16, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 16-20, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 18-22, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 20-24, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 16-20, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 13-17, 2012 are in square brackets.   Results from the poll conducted February 29 - March 3, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 22-24, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 7-11, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 2-5, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 6-10, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 27-31, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 14-17, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 9-13, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 31 - April 4, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 24-28, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 13-17, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 9-13, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September, 2010 are in curly brackets.