Poll Watch: Roanoke College Virginia 2012 Senatorial Survey

Roanoke College Virginia 2012 Senate Poll

• Tim Kaine (D) 47%
• George Allen (R) 37%
• Uncertain 17%

Among Men

• George Allen (R) 45%
• Tim Kaine (D) 41%

Among Women

• Tim Kaine (D) 52%
• George Allen (R) 30%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Tim Kaine 49% / 29% {+20%}
• George Allen 38% / 34% {+4%}

Survey of 589 likely voters was conducted September 19-28, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Party ID: 36% Democrat; 27% Republican; 28% Independent; 9% Other/None. Ideology: 40% Moderate; 36% Conservative; 21% Liberal.  Gender: 45% Male; 55% Female.  Race: 81% White; 15% Black.

Inside the numbers: 

The candidates are statistically tied among White voters (Allen leads 43% - 40%), but Kaine has a very large lead among Black voters (77% - 7%). Kaine leads with Moderates (57% - 25%), but Allen leads among Independents (46% - 39%). Kaine holds leads in every region of the state except the Shenandoah Valley, which is statistically tied.