Poll Watch: Rasmussen Florida 2012 Republican Primary Survey

Rasmussen Florida 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 39% {32%} [41%] (24%)
• Newt Gingrich 31% {41%} [19%] (19%)
• Rick Santorum 12% {11%} [15%] (1%)
• Ron Paul 9% {8%} [9%] (3%)
• Undecided 7% {9%} [8%]

Note: Gingrich continues to hold a sizable 40% to 25% lead over Romney among Tea Party Republicans in Florida. Primary voters who are not members of the grassroots movement prefer Romney 48% to 29%.

Are you certain you will vote for that candidate or is it possible that something come up that causes you to change your mind?

• Certain 69% {59%} [51%]
• Could change mind 24% {32%} [41%]
• No preference yet 7% {9%} [8%]

Note: Those who are certain of their vote include 78% of Gingrich supporters, 74% of Romney voters, 67% of Paul’s backers and 61% of Santorum’s.

Among Those Certain of Their Vote

• Mitt Romney 28.86% 
• Newt Gingrich 24.18% 
• Rick Santorum 7.32%
• Ron Paul 6.03%

Which Republican presidential candidate would be the strongest opponent against Barack Obama in the general election?

• Mitt Romney 49% {39%}
• Newt Gingrich 34% {42%}

Survey of 750 likely Republican primary voters was conducted January 25, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted January 22, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 11, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 8, 2011 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Seventy-eight percent (78%) think Romney is at least somewhat likely to beat Obama, with 43% who feel it’s Very Likely. Sixty-six percent (66%) believe Gingrich is likely to beat the incumbent, including 35% who say it’s Very Likely. Just 39% and 18% of Florida Republicans respectively say Santorum or Paul are likely to win the White House this November.

Most (55%) in Florida still expect Romney to eventually win the GOP presidential nomination, but 31% think Gingrich will be the nominee. That represents a slight shift in Romney’s favor from four days ago.

Seventy-three percent (73%) of Likely Florida Primary Voters have a favorable opinion of Romney. Gingrich is viewed favorably by 63%, Santorum by 59% and Paul by 35%.

Fifty-three percent (53%) regard economic issues as most important in the election, with fiscal issues such as taxes and government spending as a distant second with 20% rating them most important. After that in terms of the number of voters who rate them as their top concern are domestic issues (10%), national security issues (7%) and cultural issues (5%). In earlier surveys, voters have rated Romney best on the economy, Gingrich best on national security and Santorum best on social issues.

Evangelical Christians were key to Gingrich’s win in South Carolina.  Evangelical Christians are now evenly divided over the top two candidates. Romney leads among other Protestants and Catholics. Gingrich is ahead among those of other faiths.