Poll Watch: PPP (D) Florida 2012 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) Florida 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 39% {39%} [40%] (33%) {41%} [17%] (30%) {29%} [28%]
• Newt Gingrich 31% {32%} [32%] (38%) {26%} [47%] (10%) {10%} [30%]  
• Rick Santorum 15% {14%} [15%] (13%) {11%} [1%] (2%)
• Ron Paul 11% {11%} [9%] (10%) {10%} [5%] (8%) {8%} [9%]
• Someone else/Not sure 5% {4%} [4%] (6%) {7%} [7%] (9%) {9%} [11%]

January 30

• Mitt Romney 40%
• Newt Gingrich 29%  
• Rick Santorum 16%
• Ron Paul 12%

January 29

• Mitt Romney 37%
• Newt Gingrich 33%
• Ron Paul 13%
• Rick Santorum 13%

January 28

• Mitt Romney 40%
• Newt Gingrich 31%
• Rick Santorum 16%
• Ron Paul 8% 

Very Conservative

• Newt Gingrich 36% {36%} [39%]
• Mitt Romney 30% {29%} [25%] 
• Rick Santorum 22% {24%} [26%]
• Ron Paul 8% {7%} [6%]
• Someone else/Not sure 3% {4%} [3%]

Somewhat Conservative

• Mitt Romney 43% {43%} [45%] 
• Newt Gingrich 33% {34%} [34%]
• Rick Santorum 11% {11%} [11%]
• Ron Paul 8% {7%} [4%]
• Someone else/Not sure 6% {5%} [7%]

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 36% {35%} [36%]
• Newt Gingrich 31% {34%} [34%]
• Ron Paul 15% {13%} [10%]
• Rick Santorum 14% {14%} [16%]
• Someone else/Not sure 5% {4%} [4%]

Among Women

• Mitt Romney 42% {43%} [42%]
• Newt Gingrich 30% {30%} [31%]
• Rick Santorum 16% {15%} [15%]
• Ron Paul 8% {8%} [7%]
• Someone else/Not sure 4% {4%} [4%]

Have you already voted, either at an early voting site or with an absentee ballot?

• Yes 32% {34%} [35%] (16%)
• No 68% {66%} [65%] (84%)

Already Voted

• Mitt Romney 45% {45%} [45%] (43%)
  
• Newt Gingrich 32% {33%} [35% (40%)
• Rick Santorum 13% {12%} [10%] (7%)
• Ron Paul 9% {9%} [9%] (9%)
• Someone else/Not sure 1% {1%} [0%] (1%)

Did Not Vote Yet

• Mitt Romney 36% {35%} [36%] (31%)
• Newt Gingrich 30% {32%} [31%] (38%)
• Rick Santorum 16% {16%} [19%] (14%)
• Ron Paul 12% {11%} [9%] (10%)
• Someone else/Not sure 7% {6%} [6%] (7%)

Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?

• Strongly committed to that candidate 81% {81%} [79%] (71%) {64%} [44%]
• Might end up supporting someone else 19% {19%} [21%] (29%) {36%} [56%]

Strongly Committed to That Candidate

• Mitt Romney 39% {40%} [43%] (36%)
• Newt Gingrich 34% {36%} [35%] (45%)
• Rick Santorum 14% {13%} [14%] (10%)
• Ron Paul 12% {11%} [9%] (10%)

Might End Up Supporting Someone Else

• Mitt Romney 45% {43%} [36%] (32%)
• Newt Gingrich 24% {23%} [29%] (30%)
• Rick Santorum 20% {23%} [25%] (23%)
• Ron Paul 11% {10%} [10%] (14%)

Second Choice

• Rick Santorum 26% {28%} [28%] (19%) {18%} [3%] 
• Mitt Romney 18% {19%} [18%] (20%) {19%} [21%]
• Newt Gingrich 17% {17%} [17%] (20%) {19%} [20%]
• Ron Paul 9% {8%} [9%] (10%) {7%} [3%]
• Not sure 31% {28%} [28%] (30%) {28%} [25%]

Which of the Republican candidates do you think has the best chance of defeating Barack Obama?

• Mitt Romney 49% {49%} [50%] (37%)
  
• Newt Gingrich 25% {26%} [23%] (37%)
• Ron Paul 6% {6%} [4%] (5%)
• Rick Santorum 5% {5%} [6%] (6%)
• Someone else/Not sure 15% {15%} [16%] (14%)

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 31% {31%} [30%] (25%) {34%} [32%]
• No 58% {57%} [57%] (64%) {57%} [58%]

Among Tea Party Members

• Newt Gingrich 39% {40%} [41%] (46%)
• Mitt Romney 31% {33%} [30%] (20%)
• Rick Santorum 19% {16%} [18%] (21%)
• Ron Paul 8% {9%} [8%] (8%)
• Someone else/Not sure 3% {3%} [3%] (5%)

Among Non-Tea Party Republicans

• Mitt Romney 43% {43%} [46%] (39%)
• Newt Gingrich 27% {28%} [28%] (36%)
• Ron Paul 14% {12%} [11%] (11%)
• Rick Santorum 13% {13%} [13%] (9%)
• Someone else/Not sure 4% {3%} [2%] (6%)

Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?

• Are 40% {38%} [39%] (44%) {45%}
• Are not 60% {62%} [61%] (56%) {55%}

Among Evangelical Christians

• Newt Gingrich 38% {37%} [36%] (42%)
• Mitt Romney 32% {33%} [34%] (23%)
• Rick Santorum 19% {17%} [20%] (18%)
• Ron Paul 6% {8%} [5%] (9%)
• Someone else/Not sure 5% {5%} [5%] (8%)

Among Non-Evangelicals

• Mitt Romney 43% {42%} [43%] (40%)
• Newt Gingrich 26% {29%} [29%] (35%)
• Ron Paul 15% {12%} [11%] (11%)
• Rick Santorum 12% {13%} [13%] (9%)  
• Someone else/Not sure 5% {4%} [3%] (5%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rick Santorum 66% {66%} [65%] (60%) {54%} / 23% {22%} [24%] (26%) {26%} {+43%} 
• Mitt Romney 61% {64%} [64%] (61%) {68%} [51%] (65%) {56%} [61%] (61%) / 32% {30%} [31%] (30%) {24%} [36%] (22%) {30%} [24%] (22%) {+29%}
• Newt Gingrich 48% {50%} [50%] (57%) {51%} [72%] (57%) {46%} [58%] (59%) / 41% {40%} [40%] (34%) {36%} [21%] (29%) {37%} [26%] (24%) {+7%}
• Ron Paul 40% {38%} [35%] (37%) {30%} [25%] (33%) {44%} [53%] / 47% {49%} [53%] (50%) {57%} [57%] (45%) {31%} [16%] {-7%}

Survey of 1,087 likely Florida Republican primary voters was conducted January 28-30, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percentage points.  Political ideology: 40% {36%} [36%] (40%) {38%} [35%] (33%) {40%} [40%] Very conservative; 37% {43%} [43%] (36%) {43%} [37%] (43%) {35%} [38%] Somewhat conservative; 16% {14%} [14%] (18%) {16%} [23%] (19%) {21%} [17%] Moderate; 4% {5%} [4%] (3%) {2%} [5%] (4%) {4%} [3%] Somewhat liberal; 2% {2%} [2%] (2%) {1%} [1%] (1%) {1%} [1%] Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted January 28-29, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 28, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 22-23, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 14-16, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 28-30, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 22-25, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 16-19, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 24-27, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 17-20, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 30-31, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 16-18, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 5-8, 2010 are in parentheses.