Poll Watch: PPP (D) Florida 2012 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) Florida 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 40% (33%) {41%} [17%] (30%) {29%} [28%]
• Newt Gingrich 32% (38%) {26%} [47%] (10%) {10%} [30%]  
• Rick Santorum 15% (13%) {11%} [1%] (2%)
• Ron Paul 9% (10%) {10%} [5%] (8%) {8%} [9%]
• Someone else/Not sure 4% (6%) {7%} [7%] (9%) {9%} [11%]

Very Conservative

• Newt Gingrich 39%
• Rick Santorum 26%
• Mitt Romney 25%
• Ron Paul 6%
• Someone else/Not sure 3%

Somewhat Conservative

• Mitt Romney 45% 
• Newt Gingrich 34%
• Rick Santorum 11%
• Ron Paul 4%
• Someone else/Not sure 7%

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 36%
• Newt Gingrich 34%
• Rick Santorum 16%
• Ron Paul 10%
• Someone else/Not sure 4%

Among Women

• Mitt Romney 42%
• Newt Gingrich 31%
• Rick Santorum 15%
• Ron Paul 7%
• Someone else/Not sure 4%

Have you already voted, either at an early voting site or with an absentee ballot?

• Yes 35% (16%)
• No 65% (84%)

Already Voted

• Mitt Romney 45% (43%)
  
• Newt Gingrich 35% (40%)
• Rick Santorum 10% (7%)
• Ron Paul 9% (9%)
• Someone else/Not sure 0% (1%)

Did Not Vote Yet

• Mitt Romney 36% (31%)
• Newt Gingrich 31% (38%)
• Rick Santorum 19% (14%)
• Ron Paul 9% (10%)
• Someone else/Not sure 6% (7%)

Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?

• Strongly committed to that candidate 79% (71%) {64%} [44%]
• Might end up supporting someone else 21% (29%) {36%} [56%]

Strongly Committed to That Candidate

• Mitt Romney 43% (36%)
• Newt Gingrich 35% (45%)
• Rick Santorum 14% (10%)
• Ron Paul 9% (10%)

Might End Up Supporting Someone Else

• Mitt Romney 36% (32%)
• Newt Gingrich 29% (30%)
• Rick Santorum 25% (23%)
• Ron Paul 10% (14%)

Second Choice

• Rick Santorum 28% (19%) {18%} [3%] 
• Mitt Romney 18% (20%) {19%} [21%]
• Newt Gingrich 17% (20%) {19%} [20%]
• Ron Paul 9% (10%) {7%} [3%]
• Not sure 28% (30%) {28%} [25%]

Which of the Republican candidates do you think has the best chance of defeating Barack Obama?

• Mitt Romney 50% (37%)
  
• Newt Gingrich 23% (37%)
• Rick Santorum 6% (6%)
• Ron Paul 4% (5%)
• Someone else/Not sure 16% (14%)

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 30% (25%) {34%} [32%]
• No 57% (64%) {57%} [58%]

Among Tea Party Members

• Newt Gingrich 41% (46%)
• Mitt Romney 30% (20%)
• Rick Santorum 18% (21%)
• Ron Paul 8% (8%)
• Someone else/Not sure 3% (5%)

Among Non-Tea Party Republicans

• Mitt Romney 46% (39%)
• Newt Gingrich 28% (36%)
• Rick Santorum 13% (9%)
• Ron Paul 11% (11%)
• Someone else/Not sure 2% (6%)

Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?

• Are 39% (44%) {45%}
• Are not 61% (56%) {55%}

Among Evangelical Christians

• Newt Gingrich 36% (42%)
• Mitt Romney 34% (23%)
• Rick Santorum 20% (18%)
• Ron Paul 5% (9%)
• Someone else/Not sure 5% (8%)

Among Non-Evangelicals

• Mitt Romney 43% (40%)
• Newt Gingrich 29% (35%)
• Rick Santorum 13% (9%) 
• Ron Paul 11% (11%)
• Someone else/Not sure 3% (5%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rick Santorum 65% (60%) {54%} / 24% (26%) {26%} {+41%} 
• Mitt Romney 64% (61%) {68%} [51%] (65%) {56%} [61%] (61%) / 31% (30%) {24%} [36%] (22%) {30%} [24%] (22%) {+33%}
• Newt Gingrich 50% (57%) {51%} [72%] (57%) {46%} [58%] (59%) / 40% (34%) {36%} [21%] (29%) {37%} [26%] (24%) {+10%}
• Ron Paul 35% (37%) {30%} [25%] (33%) {44%} [53%] / 53% (50%) {57%} [57%] (45%) {31%} [16%] {-18%}

Survey of 387 likely Florida Republican primary voters was conducted January 28, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 5.0 percentage points.  Political ideology: 43% (36%) {43%} [37%] (43%) {35%} [38%] Somewhat conservative; 36% (40%) {38%} [35%] (33%) {40%} [40%] Very conservative; 14% (18%) {16%} [23%] (19%) {21%} [17%] Moderate; 4% (3%) {2%} [5%] (4%) {4%} [3%] Somewhat liberal; 2% (2%) {1%} [1%] (1%) {1%} [1%] Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted January 22-23, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 14-16, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 28-30, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 22-25, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 16-19, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 24-27, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 17-20, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 30-31, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 16-18, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 5-8, 2010 are in parentheses.