Saturday, January 28, 2012

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Florida 2012 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) Florida 2012 GOP Primary Poll
  • Mitt Romney 40% (33%) {41%} [17%] (30%) {29%} [28%]
  • Newt Gingrich 32% (38%) {26%} [47%] (10%) {10%} [30%]  
  • Rick Santorum 15% (13%) {11%} [1%] (2%)
  • Ron Paul 9% (10%) {10%} [5%] (8%) {8%} [9%]
  • Someone else/Not sure 4% (6%) {7%} [7%] (9%) {9%} [11%]
Very Conservative
  • Newt Gingrich 39%
  • Rick Santorum 26%
  • Mitt Romney 25%
  • Ron Paul 6%
  • Someone else/Not sure 3%
Somewhat Conservative
  • Mitt Romney 45% 
  • Newt Gingrich 34%
  • Rick Santorum 11%
  • Ron Paul 4%
  • Someone else/Not sure 7%
Among Men
  • Mitt Romney 36%
  • Newt Gingrich 34%
  • Rick Santorum 16%
  • Ron Paul 10%
  • Someone else/Not sure 4%
    Among Women
    • Mitt Romney 42%
    • Newt Gingrich 31%
    • Rick Santorum 15%
    • Ron Paul 7%
    • Someone else/Not sure 4%
    Have you already voted, either at an early voting site or with an absentee ballot?
    • Yes 35% (16%)
    • No 65% (84%)
    Already Voted
    • Mitt Romney 45% (43%)
    • Newt Gingrich 35% (40%)
    • Rick Santorum 10% (7%)
    • Ron Paul 9% (9%)
    • Someone else/Not sure 0% (1%)
    Did Not Vote Yet
    • Mitt Romney 36% (31%)
    • Newt Gingrich 31% (38%)
    • Rick Santorum 19% (14%)
    • Ron Paul 9% (10%)
    • Someone else/Not sure 6% (7%)
    Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?
    • Strongly committed to that candidate 79% (71%) {64%} [44%]
    • Might end up supporting someone else 21% (29%) {36%} [56%]
    Strongly Committed to That Candidate
    • Mitt Romney 43% (36%)
    • Newt Gingrich 35% (45%)
    • Rick Santorum 14% (10%)
    • Ron Paul 9% (10%)
    Might End Up Supporting Someone Else
    • Mitt Romney 36% (32%)
    • Newt Gingrich 29% (30%)
    • Rick Santorum 25% (23%)
    • Ron Paul 10% (14%)
    Second Choice
    • Rick Santorum 28% (19%) {18%} [3%] 
    • Mitt Romney 18% (20%) {19%} [21%]
    • Newt Gingrich 17% (20%) {19%} [20%]
    • Ron Paul 9% (10%) {7%} [3%]
    • Not sure 28% (30%) {28%} [25%]
    Which of the Republican candidates do you think has the best chance of defeating Barack Obama?
    • Mitt Romney 50% (37%)
    • Newt Gingrich 23% (37%)
    • Rick Santorum 6% (6%)
    • Ron Paul 4% (5%)
    • Someone else/Not sure 16% (14%)
    Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?
    • Yes 30% (25%) {34%} [32%]
    • No 57% (64%) {57%} [58%]
    Among Tea Party Members
    • Newt Gingrich 41% (46%)
    • Mitt Romney 30% (20%)
    • Rick Santorum 18% (21%)
    • Ron Paul 8% (8%)
    • Someone else/Not sure 3% (5%)
    Among Non-Tea Party Republicans
    • Mitt Romney 46% (39%)
    • Newt Gingrich 28% (36%)
    • Rick Santorum 13% (9%)
    • Ron Paul 11% (11%)
    • Someone else/Not sure 2% (6%)
    Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
    • Are 39% (44%) {45%}
    • Are not 61% (56%) {55%}
    Among Evangelical Christians
    • Newt Gingrich 36% (42%)
    • Mitt Romney 34% (23%)
    • Rick Santorum 20% (18%)
    • Ron Paul 5% (9%)
    • Someone else/Not sure 5% (8%)
    Among Non-Evangelicals
    • Mitt Romney 43% (40%)
    • Newt Gingrich 29% (35%)
    • Rick Santorum 13% (9%) 
    • Ron Paul 11% (11%)
    • Someone else/Not sure 3% (5%)
    Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
    • Rick Santorum 65% (60%) {54%} / 24% (26%) {26%} {+41%} 
    • Mitt Romney 64% (61%) {68%} [51%] (65%) {56%} [61%] (61%) / 31% (30%) {24%} [36%] (22%) {30%} [24%] (22%) {+33%}
    • Newt Gingrich 50% (57%) {51%} [72%] (57%) {46%} [58%] (59%) / 40% (34%) {36%} [21%] (29%) {37%} [26%] (24%) {+10%}
    • Ron Paul 35% (37%) {30%} [25%] (33%) {44%} [53%] / 53% (50%) {57%} [57%] (45%) {31%} [16%] {-18%}
    Survey of 387 likely Florida Republican primary voters was conducted January 28, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 5.0 percentage points.  Political ideology: 43% (36%) {43%} [37%] (43%) {35%} [38%] Somewhat conservative; 36% (40%) {38%} [35%] (33%) {40%} [40%] Very conservative; 14% (18%) {16%} [23%] (19%) {21%} [17%] Moderate; 4% (3%) {2%} [5%] (4%) {4%} [3%] Somewhat liberal; 2% (2%) {1%} [1%] (1%) {1%} [1%] Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted January 22-23, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 14-16, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 28-30, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 22-25, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 16-19, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 24-27, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 17-20, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 30-31, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 16-18, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 5-8, 2010 are in parentheses.

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