Poll Watch: Rasmussen Ohio 2012 Republican Primary Survey

Rasmussen Ohio 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Rick Santorum 32% [33%] (42%)
• Mitt Romney 31% [31%] (24%)
• Newt Gingrich 13% [15%] (13%)
• Ron Paul 13% [11%] (10%)
• Some other candidate 3% [2%] (3%)
• Undecided 6% [8%] (8%)

Are you certain you will vote for that candidate or is it possible that something come up that causes you to change your mind?

• Certain 63% [57%] (46%)
• Could change mind 31% [35%] (47%)

If the 2012 Republican Primary for president were held today and you only had a choice between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, for whom would you vote?

• Rick Santorum 41% [43%] (58%)
• Mitt Romney 41% [43%] (30%)

Which Republican presidential candidate would be the strongest opponent against Barack Obama in the general election?

• Mitt Romney 44% [45%] (35%)
• Rick Santorum 21% [25%] (34%)
• Newt Gingrich 18% [16%] 
• Ron Paul 8%

Regardless of who you want to win, who do you think will win the Republican presidential nomination?

• Mitt Romney 69% [70%] (55%)
• Rick Santorum 16% [16%] (26%)

Survey of 750 likely Republican primary voters was conducted March 4, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted March 1, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 15, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

The former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania holds a two-to-one lead over Romney – 47% to 24% - among very conservative voters in the Buckeye State. Romney has a much narrower 38% to 32% lead over Santorum among those who say they are somewhat conservative. That’s an improvement for Santorum among both groups since the end of last week.

Santorum holds a 49% to 25% lead among Evangelical Christian voters in the state, while Romney has single-digit leads among other Protestants, Catholics and GOP voters of other faiths.

Santorum runs strongest among those ages 40 to 64. Romney leads among younger voters and the elderly.

Seventy-two percent (72%) of all Ohio primary voters plan to vote for the Republican nominee even if their favorite doesn’t win. Twelve percent (12%) will vote for Obama in that case, and 11% will support a third party candidate. Paul’s voters by far continue to be the strongest potential supporters of a third party candidate.

A plurality (48%) in Ohio thinks it’s more important to choose a candidate with the best chance of beating Obama. But nearly as many (42%) put more emphasis on a candidate who does the best job representing Republican values. Among those who rate electability most important, Romney leads Santorum by 15 points, down four points from three days ago. Santorum holds a 17-point lead over Romney among those voters who put allegiance to GOP values first, but that’s down from 27 points in the previous survey.

Sixty-six percent (66%) of likely GOP primary voters in Ohio share a favorable opinion of Santorum, while 61% feel that way about Romney. Fifty-six percent (56%) see Gingrich favorably, but 55% hold an unfavorable view of Paul. The Texas congressman is seen favorably by 41%.