Saturday, September 22, 2012

Poll Watch: University of Cincinnati Ohio 2012 Presidential Survey

University of Cincinnati Ohio 2012 Presidential Poll
  • Barack Obama 51% (49%)
  • Mitt Romney 46% (46%)
  • Other 1% (2%)
  • Undecided 2% (2%)
Among Men
  • Mitt Romney 49% (55%)
  • Barack Obama 48% (40%)
Among Women
  • Barack Obama 53% (57%)
  • Mitt Romney 43% (39%)
Survey of  861 likely voters was conducted September 13-18, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted August 16-21, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers: 
Ninety-five percent of voters who say Romney would do best on the economy choose Romney for president; 96 percent of voters who say Obama would do best pick Obama.

The gap between the two candidates is biggest in Northeast Ohio, where Obama leads by 16 points, 57-41; the president also leads in Northwest and Central Ohio, although by smaller margins. Romney dominates in Southeast and Southwest Ohio, where his leads are 13 and 10 points, respectively.

While Romney has made the struggling economy a major issue, 49 percent of those surveyed said Obama would do the best job of improving economic conditions in Ohio, versus 44 percent favoring Romney. Again, there were geographic differences, with Obama seen as better for the economy in northern Ohio, Romney superior in southern Ohio and the two closely matched in the state’s midsection, 43 percent for Romney, 44 for Obama.

Only 36 percent of those surveyed said they were worse off than four years ago, as opposed to 41 percent who felt they were in about the same shape as in 2008, and 23 percent who thought they were better off.
The president leads among adults under 30, by 62 to 35 percent, although the sample in the poll was small. Obama also has a majority of other adults under 65 in the poll. Romney, meanwhile, is the favorite of voters 65 and older.

Romney holds the edge among white voters, 51-46. Obama leads among African-Americans, 92 to 8 percent.
In terms of education, Obama is the favorite with voters who have no more than a high school education; the candidates are even with voters who have some college or a college degree.

As would be expected, each candidate has overwhelming support from people in his party, with Obama claiming 94 percent of people polled who identified themselves as Democrats, and Romney, 91 percent of Republicans. Among independents, Romney had 54 percent, more than twice the percentage for Obama.

Voters who called themselves supporters of the tea party movement are overwhelmingly pro-Romney, with 91 percent favoring the Republican. Self-defined tea party opponents tilt toward Obama, 92-7. People in the survey who neither supported nor opposed the tea party — a group comprising almost half the people surveyed — were closely divided, 46 percent for Romney to 48 percent for Obama.

Choosing the best approach to health care is highly divisive. Among all likely voters, 28 percent think Congress should keep the federal health-care law as is, 23 percent would have it replaced by a Republican alternative, 21 percent would repeal it and not replace it, and 20 percent would expand it.

A majority of voters surveyed were either somewhat or strongly favorable about the federal auto-industry bailout featured in advertising by both sides. But almost the same percentage said the bailout would not make a difference in the vote for president.

The candidates’ positions on same-sex marriage — Obama for, Romney against — would not affect the presidential votes of about half of the likely voters surveyed.

But just over a third of adults 65 and older said the marriage issue made them more likely to vote for Romney, while more than 40 percent of voters under 30 said the stances made them more likely to vote for Obama.

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