Poll Watch: Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll

• Ted Cruz 31% [10%] (8%) {5%} [6%] (7%) 
• Donald Trump 21% [19%] (23%) {4%} [1%] 
• Ben Carson 13% [28%] (18%) {10%} [10%] (11%)
• Marco Rubio 10% [9%] (6%) {6%} [4%] (2%) 
• Jeb Bush 6% [5%] (6%) {9%} [9%] (4%)
• Chris Christie 3% [1%] (2%) {4%} [6%] (6%)
• Mike Huckabee 3% [3%] (4%) {9%} [13%] (9%)
• Rand Paul 3% [5%] (4%) {10%} [15%] (10%)
• John Kasich 2% [2%] (2%) {2%} [1%]  (1%)
• Carly Fiorina 1% [4%] (5%) {2%} [1%]
• Rick Santorum 1% [2%] (1%) {6%} [5%] (3%)
• Jim Gilmore 0% [0%] (0%)
• Lindsey Graham 0% [0%] (0%) {1%}
• George Pataki 0% [0%] (0%) {0%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Ted Cruz 73% [61%] (61%) {59%} [58%] (52%) / 19% [26%] (24%) {20%} [21%] (18%) {+54%}
• Ben Carson 72% [84%] (79%) {56%} [50%] (41%) / 22% [12%] (8%) {15%} [12%] (8%) {+50%}
• Marco Rubio 70% [70%] (67%) {60%} [57%] (54%) / 21% [20%] (20%) {17%} [20%] (16%) {+49%}
• Donald Trump 57% [59%] (61%) {27%} [26%] / 38% [37%] (35%) {63%} [68%] {+19%}
• Carly Fiorina 52% [66%] (64%) {41%} [15%] / 33% [22%] (15%) {19%} [19%] {+19%}
• Mike Huckabee 53% [61%] (61%) {61%} [66%] (59%) / 38% [33%] (30%) {30%} [28%] (30%) {+15%}
• Chris Christie 46% [39%] (29%) {28%} [36%] (39%) / 42% [49%] (59%) {58%} [54%] (45%) {+4%}
• Rick Santorum 42% [51%] (48%) {56%} [57%] (52%) / 43% [34%] (37%) {28%} [30%] (30%) {-1%}
• Rand Paul 37% [43%] (39%) {55%} [64%] (59%) / 50% [48%] (49%) {34%} [25%] (24%) {-13%}
• Jeb Bush 39% [50%] (45%) {43%} [46%] (50%) / 54% [43%] (50%) {45%} [43%] (28%) {-15%}
• John Kasich 19% [31%] (33%) {25%} [22%]  (17%) / 46% [33%] (22%) {16%} [14%]  (7%) {-27%}
• Lindsey Graham 16% [18%] (15%) {22%} / 53% [53%] (59%) {38%} {-37%} 

"Selzer Score"

• Ted Cruz 97.5 [53.5] (53)
• Donald Trump 72.5 [64.5] (73)
• Ben Carson 67.5 [95.5] (75)
• Marco Rubio 62 [56.5] (50)
• Jeb Bush 39.5 [39] (41)
• Mike Huckabee 39.5 [39] (42)
• Chris Christie 34.5 [26.5] (27)
• Carly Fiorina 34.5 [48] (48.5) 
• Rand Paul 32.5 [35.5] (32.5)
• Rick Santorum 31 [31.5] (32)
• John Kasich 22 [24] (27.5)
• Lindsey Graham 14.5 [12.5] (15)
• George Pataki 9.5 [9.5] (13)
• Jim Gilmore 7 [8.5] (10)

Survey of 400 likely Iowa GOP caucus-goers was conducted December 7-10, 2015 by Selzer & Co. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 16-19, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 23-26, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 25-29, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 26-29, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 1-7, 2014 are in parentheses.