Poll Watch: POLITICO/George Washington University 2012 Battleground Brushfire Tracking Survey

POLITICO/GWU 2012 Battleground Brushfire Tracking Poll

• Barack Obama 48% [49%] (47%) {49%} [49%] (49%) {50%} [48%] (47%) {53%} [49%]
• Mitt Romney 48% [48%] (49%) {48%} [48%] (47%) {47%} [47%] (48%) {43%} [43%] 

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 52% [55%]
• Barack Obama 44% [43%]

Among Women

• Barack Obama 53% [54%]
• Mitt Romney 45% [43%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Barack Obama 51% [51%] (52%) [52%] (50%) {53%} [50%] / 45% [47%] (44%) [45%] (47%) {46%} [47%] {+6%}
• Mitt Romney 50% [52%] (50%) [47%] (46%) {46%} [46%] / 44% [43%] (45%) [47%] (48%) {49%} [46%] {+6%}

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President? Do you approve or disapprove of the job he is doing?

• Approve 49% [50%] (49%) [50%] (49%) {50%} [49%]
• Disapprove 49% [49%] (49%) [48%] (49%) {47%} [50%]

I am going to read you several issues. For each one, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the job that President Obama is doing on this issue.
  
The Economy

• Approve 47% [45%] (45%) {48%} [45%] (46%) {48%} [44%]
• Disapprove 52% [54%] (53%) {51%} [53%] (52%) {51%} [54%]

The Federal Budget and Spending 

• Approve 38% [40%] (39%) {40%} [39%] (42%) {40%} [37%]
• Disapprove 60% [58%] (57%) {56%} [57%] (56%) {57%} [61%]

I would like to read you a list of issues that some people have said are important to them. Please tell me, for each one, who will better handle this issue -- Mitt Romney or Barack Obama.

The Economy

• Mitt Romney 50% [51%] (51%) {50%} [49%] (49%) {48%} [49%] (48%)
• Barack Obama 46% [46%] (45%) {47%} [47%] (47%) {49%} [44%] (45%)

Jobs

• Mitt Romney 50% [51%] (50%) {49%} [49%] (48%) {48%} [50%] 
• Barack Obama 46% [46%] (46%) {47%} [46%] (47%) {48%} [44%]

Standing Up for the Middle Class

• Barack Obama 55% [54%] (55%) {54%} [56%] (54%) {57%} [54%] (58%) 
  
• Mitt Romney 41% [41%] (41%) {42%} [40%] (41%) {38%} [40%] (35%)
  

Taxes

• Barack Obama 49% [49%] (49%) {49%} [50%] (49%) {50%} [47%] (51%)
  
• Mitt Romney 47% [47%] (47%) {47%} [44%] (46%) {46%} [47%] (45%)
  

Medicare

• Barack Obama 51% [51%] (51%) {52%} [51%] (50%) {52%} [49%] (47%)
  
• Mitt Romney 43% [45%] (43%) {43%} [43%] (42%) {43%} [45%] (44%)
  

Foreign Policy

• Barack Obama 52% [52%] (51%) {49%} [50%] (52%) {52%} [54%] (51%) 
  
• Mitt Romney 42% [43%] (42%) {45%} [44%] (40%) {43%} [39%] (38%)
  

The Federal Budget and Spending

• Mitt Romney 52% [54%] (55%) {54%} [50%] (50%) {50%}
  
• Barack Obama 43% [42%] (40%) {42%} [44%] (43%) {45%}

Sharing Your Values

• Barack Obama 49% [49%] (48%) {50%} [50%] (48%)
  
• Mitt Romney 44% [46%] (46%) {46%} [45%] (45%)
  

Being a Strong Leader 

• Barack Obama 49% [49%] (46%) {49%} [50%] (50%)
• Mitt Romney 46% [46%] (47%) {47%} [45%] (43%)

Can Get Things Done

• Mitt Romney 49% [49%] (47%) {48%} [46%] (47%)
  
• Barack Obama 43% [45%] (43%) {45%} [46%] (45%)

Regardless of who you intend to vote for – which candidate for President do you think is going to win the election?

• Barack Obama 53% [54%] (51%) {53%} [61%] (61%) {60%} [56%] 
  
• Mitt Romney 38% [36%] (37%) {37%} [31%] (29%) {30%} [33%]
  

Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted October 29 - November 1, 2012 by The Tarrance Group (R) and Lake Research Partners (D). The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Party ID: 43% [43%] (43%) {43%} [44%] (43%) {43%} [44%] Democrat; 40% [41%] (41%) {40%} [40%] (41%) {40%} [40%] Republican; 14% [15%] (15%) {15%} [16%] (15%) {15%} [15%] Independent.  Ideology: 20% [20%] (20%) {19%} [21%] (21%) {21%} [24%] Very conservative; 38% [38%] (39%) {37%} [37%] (38%) {36%} [33%] Somewhat conservative; 25% [26%] (26%) {27%} [25%] (25%) {26%} [26%] Somewhat liberal; 11% [10%] (10%) {10%} [13%] (10%) {12%} [11%] Very liberal. Race: 78% [77%] (78%) {77%} [77%] White; 12% [12%] (12%) {12%} [12%] Black; 6% [7%] (5%) {6%} [7%] Hispanic/Latino.  Click here to view crosstabs.  Results from the poll conducted October 22-25, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 14-18, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 7-11, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 1-4, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 24-27, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 16-20, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 5-9, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 29 - May 3, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 19-22, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 6-9, 2011 are in square brackets.

Inside the numbers:

Independents are now split evenly, with Obama up 44 to 43 percent. A week ago, Romney had a 10-point advantage among this key demographic. The ranks of independents shrunk partly because more right-leaning voters now supporting Romney identified with the Republican Party.

A full 27 percent of those surveyed said they’ve already cast their ballot. Of them, Obama leads 50 to 48 percent.

Another 58 percent who have not voted yet described themselves as “extremely likely” to vote. Of them, Romney leads 49 to 46 percent.

A week ago, 17 percent of Democrats said they had already voted and 13 percent of Republicans did. Now 27 percent of both Democrats and Republicans say they’ve already cast their ballots.

Celinda Lake, the Democratic pollster who helped conduct the bipartisan poll, notes that the intensity gap narrowed: 57 percent of Democrats who have not yet voted say they are certain to vote, compared to 59 percent for Republicans. 

Among mothers — single and divorced — the race is tied at 48 percent apiece supporting Obama and Romney.

Obama appears to have gained politically from Hurricane Sandy — which battered the Northeast this past week — at least so far.

Across the Northeastern states, the poll finds Obama up by 20 points, 58 to 38 percent. A week ago, he was only up 8 percent in the region.