Poll Watch: ARG New Hampshire 2012 Republican Primary Survey

ARG New Hampshire 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 33% {30%} [29%] (32%)
• Newt Gingrich 22% {4%} [7%] (8%)
• Ron Paul 12% {12%} [4%] (8%)
• Herman Cain 9% {4%} [4%] (2%)
• Jon Huntsman 8% {10%} [0%] (0%)
• Michele Bachmann 2% {7%} [12%] (1%)
• Rick Perry 2% {13%} [2%]
• Rick Santorum 1% {2%} [2%] (0%)
• Buddy Roemer 1% {1%} [0%] (0%)
• Gary Johnson 1% {0%} [0%] (1%)
• Undecided 9% {12%} [18%] (8%)

Among Republicans

• Mitt Romney 36% {35%} [33%] (37%)
• Newt Gingrich 25% {6%} [7%] (10%)
• Herman Cain 8% {5%} [5%] (1%)
• Ron Paul 8% {10%} [6%] (5%)
• Jon Huntsman 5% {7%} [0%] (0%)
• Michele Bachmann 3% {9%} [8%] (2%)
• Rick Perry 3% {13%} [2%]
• Rick Santorum 1% {2%} [3%] (0%)
• Gary Johnson 1% {0%} [0%] (2%)
• Buddy Roemer 1% {0%} [0%] (0%)
• Undecided 9% {10%} [15%] (6%)

Among GOP-Leaning Independents

• Mitt Romney 26% {19%} [20%] (20%)
• Newt Gingrich 19% {2%} [6%] (3%)
• Ron Paul 19% {15%} [10%] (15%)
• Jon Huntsman 14% {17%} [0%] (0%)
• Herman Cain 11% {3%} [2%] (3%)
• Buddy Roemer 1% {4%} [0%] (0%)
• Rick Perry 1% {14%} [2%]
• Michele Bachmann 0% {2%} [21%] (0%)
• Gary Johnson 0% {0%} [1%] (0%)
• Rick Santorum 0% {3%} [0%] (0%)
• Undecided 9% {13%} [15%] (7%)

Among Tea Party Supporters (42%)

• Newt Gingrich 33% {7%} [9%] (11%)
• Mitt Romney 26% {21%} [21%] (30%)
• Herman Cain 11% {7%} [5%] (2%)
• Ron Paul 11% {10%} [5%] (9%)
• Michele Bachmann 4% {13%} [24%] (2%)
• Jon Huntsman 4% {1%} [0%] (0%)
• Rick Santorum 1% {4%} [2%] (0%)
• Buddy Roemer 1% {1%} [0%] (0%)
• Gary Johnson 1% {0%} [0%] (2%)
• Rick Perry 1% {23%} [4%]
• Undecided 7% {10%} [15%] (9%)

Among Non-Tea Party GOP Primary Voters (58%)

• Mitt Romney 37% {38%} [36%] (33%)
• Newt Gingrich 16% {2%} [5%] (5%)
• Ron Paul 12% {13%} [4%] (7%)
• Jon Huntsman 11% {19%} [0%] (0%)
• Herman Cain 8% {2%} [3%] (1%)
• Rick Perry 3% {4%} [0%]
• Buddy Roemer 1% {2%} [0%] (0%)
• Rick Santorum 0% {1%} [2%] (0%)
• Michele Bachmann 0% {1%} [2%] (1%)
• Gary Johnson 0% {0%} [1%] (1%)
• Undecided 12% {11%} [14%] (5%)

Survey of 600 likely Republican primary voters (390 Republicans and 210 independents) was conducted November 16-20, 2011. The margin of error is ± 4 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 65% {67%} [70%] Republican; 35% {33%} [30%] Independent.  Results from the poll conducted September 16-21, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 9-13, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 16-21, 2011 are in parentheses.