Poll Watch: CNN/ORC 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

CNN/ORC 2012 GOP Nomination Poll

• Newt Gingrich 24% (22%) {8%} [11%] (7%) {7%} [8%] (5%) 
• Mitt Romney 20% (24%) {26%} [22%] (21%) {18%} [23%] (22%)
• Herman Cain 17% (14%) {25%} [9%] (6%) {3%} [5%] (7%)
• Rick Perry 11% (12%) {13%} [30%] (32%) {32%} [18%] (17%)
• Ron Paul 9% (8%) {9%} [7%] (13%) {6%} [14%] (12%)
• Michele Bachmann 5% (6%) {6%} [6%] (7%) {12%} [9%] (14%)
• Rick Santorum 4% (3%) {2%} [3%] (2%) {1%} [3%] (2%)
• Jon Huntsman 3% (3%) {1%} [1%] (2%) {1%} [5%] (1%)
• Someone else (vol.) 0% (1%) {1%} [3%] (2%) {4%} [2%] (3%)
• None/No one (vol.) 3% (4%) {5%} [5%] (4%) {6%} [5%] (10%)
• No opinion 2% (4%) {4%} [3%] (3%) {4%} [4%] (2%)

Among Republicans (MoE: +/-6.5%)

• Newt Gingrich 26% (22%) {10%} [8%] (7%) {3%} [4%] (4%)
• Herman Cain 19% (11%) {24%} [8%] (4%) {2%} [3%] (4%)
• Mitt Romney 19% (23%) {26%} [22%] (17%) {16%} [17%] (18%)
• Rick Perry 13% (16%) {12%} [33%] (35%) {29%} [21%] (15%)
• Ron Paul 7% (7%) {9%} [6%] (6%) {5%} [10%] (8%)
• Michele Bachmann 5% (6%) {6%} [5%] (6%) {11%} [6%] (9%)
• Rick Santorum 4% (3%) {3%} [2%] (2%) {1%} [2%] (2%)
• Jon Huntsman 2% (2%) {0%} [0%] (2%) {2%} [4%] (1%)

Among GOP-Leaning Independents (MoE: +/-7.5%)

• Mitt Romney 22% (26%) {25%} [20%] (19%) {13%} [16%] (12%)
• Newt Gingrich 21% (22%) {6%} [13%] (3%) {9%} [6%] (4%)
• Herman Cain 14% (18%) {29%} [7%] (6%) {3%} [6%] (8%)
• Ron Paul 13% (10%) {11%} [8%] (19%) {6%} [14%] (9%)
• Rick Perry 9% (6%) {15%} [22%] (23%) {26%} [7%] (14%)
• Rick Santorum 5% (2%) {0%} [4%] (1%) {1%} [2%] (0%)
• Jon Huntsman 5% (3%) {1%} [3%] (3%) {1%} [4%] (0%)
• Michele Bachmann 5% (7%) {5%} [4%] (2%) {6%} [7%] (15%)

Tea Party Supporter (MoE: +/-6.5%)

• Newt Gingrich 31% (29%) {11%} [9%] (5%) {6%} [5%] (3%) 
• Herman Cain 21% (22%) {39%} [14%] (7%) {2%} [4%] (10%)
• Mitt Romney 19% (17%) {17%} [18%] (16%) {11%} [15%] (12%)
• Ron Paul 9% (8%) {9%} [5%] (8%) {5%} [12%] (9%)
• Rick Perry 7% (12%) {10%} [36%] (38%) {37%} [20%] (22%)
• Rick Santorum 4% (3%) {2%} [2%] (1%) {2%} [1%] (1%)
• Michele Bachmann 3% (6%) {5%} [3%] (4%) {14%} [11%]
• Jon Huntsman 1% (0%) {0%} [1%] (2%) {2%} [4%] (1%)

Tea Party Neutral (MoE: +/-8.0%)

• Mitt Romney 19% (29%) {35%} [24%] (18%) {16%} [18%] (22%)
• Newt Gingrich 17% (16%) {7%} [11%] (7%) {5%} [5%] (4%)
• Rick Perry 16% (12%) {13%} [22%] (22%) {18%} [9%] (5%)
• Herman Cain 14% (8%) {14%} [3%] (3%) {3%} [3%] (2%) 
• Ron Paul 12% (9%) {11%} [7%] (13%) {6%} [12%] (6%)
• Michele Bachmann 6% (9%) {8%} [4%] (4%) {6%} [3%] (5%)  
• Jon Huntsman 6% (2%) {1%} [2%] (2%) {0%} [2%] (0%)
• Rick Santorum 4% (2%) {1%} [4%] (2%) {1%} [3%] (2%)

Among Men (MoE: +/-6.5%)

• Newt Gingrich 24% (24%) {10%} [9%] (6%) {6%} [7%] (4%)
• Herman Cain 22% (15%) {30%} [9%] (4%) {2%} [5%] (8%) 
• Mitt Romney 18% (24%) {25%} [18%] (19%) {14%} [12%] (17%)
• Rick Perry 11% (12%) {13%} [35%] (30%) {32%} [13%] (20%)
• Ron Paul 9% (9%) {6%} [6%] (12%) {6%} [17%] (8%)
• Michele Bachmann 5% (4%) {3%} [2%] (5%) {8%} [9%] (13%)
• Rick Santorum 2% (3%) {2%} [2%] (0%) {1%} [3%] (1%)
• Jon Huntsman 2% (1%) {1%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [4%] (0%)

Among Women (MoE: +/-7.5%)

• Newt Gingrich 24% (20%) {6%} [11%] (5%) {5%} [3%] (4%)
• Mitt Romney 22% (24%) {26%} [26%] (16%) {15%} [22%] (15%)
• Herman Cain 12% (14%) {20%} [6%] (5%) {2%} [3%] (4%)
• Rick Perry 11% (12%) {14%} [22%] (30%) {23%} [16%] (8%)
• Ron Paul 10% (7%) {13%} [8%] (10%) {5%} [5%] (8%) 
• Rick Santorum 7% (2%) {2%} [4%] (3%) {1%} [1%] (2%)
• Michele Bachmann 5% (10%) {9%} [7%] (3%) {10%} [4%] (9%) 
• Jon Huntsman 4% (5%) {0%} [0%] (3%) {0%} [4%] (1%)

Would you say you will definitely support that candidate in 2012, or is it possible you would change your mind?

• Definitely support 27% (31%) {33%}
• Might change mind 67% (61%) {67%}

I'm going to read some names and ask how you would feel if each of them won the Republican presidential nomination next year. As I read each name, please tell me whether you would feel enthusiastic, pleased but not enthusiastic, displeased but not upset, or upset if that person were the Republican nominee?

Newt Gingrich

• Enthusiastic 29% [16%]
• Pleased but not enthusiastic 41% [34%]
• Displeased but not upset 16% [35%]
• Upset 11% [12%]

Mitt Romney

• Enthusiastic 25% (27%) [21%]
• Pleased but not enthusiastic 44% (49%) [49%]
• Displeased but not upset 18% (20%) [22%]
• Upset 10% (5%) [7%]

Herman Cain

• Enthusiastic 27%
• Pleased but not enthusiastic 37%
• Displeased but not upset 17%
• Upset 18%

Rick Perry

• Enthusiastic 13% (35%)
• Pleased, but not enthusiastic 46% (42%)
• Displeased, but not upset 22% (14%)
• Upset 16% (7%)

Ron Paul

• Enthusiastic 14% (18%) [20%]
• Pleased but not enthusiastic 29% (33%) [43%]
• Displeased but not upset 32% (34%) [24%]
• Upset 18% (14%) [10%]

Which Republican candidate is the most qualified to be Commander-in-Chief?

• Newt Gingrich 36%
• Mitt Romney 20%
• Rick Perry 12%
• Herman Cain 10%
• Ron Paul 8%
• Jon Huntsman 3%
• Michele Bachmann 2%
• Rick Santorum 2%

Tea Party Supporter (MoE: +/-6.5%)

• Newt Gingrich 49%
• Mitt Romney 18%
• Rick Perry 10%
• Herman Cain 8%
• Ron Paul 6%
• Jon Huntsman 2%
• Michele Bachmann 1%
• Rick Santorum 1%

Which Republican candidate is most likely to understand complex issues?

• Newt Gingrich 43%
• Mitt Romney 18%
• Herman Cain 12%
• Ron Paul 11%
• Rick Perry 8%
• Michele Bachmann 3%
• Rick Santorum 1%
• Jon Huntsman 0%

Tea Party Supporter (MoE: +/-6.5%)

• Newt Gingrich 58%
• Mitt Romney 12%
• Herman Cain 11%
• Ron Paul 7%
• Rick Perry 5%
• Michele Bachmann 3%
• Rick Santorum 1%
• Jon Huntsman 0%

Which Republican candidate would do the best job representing the United States to the world?

• Newt Gingrich 30%
• Mitt Romney 26%
• Herman Cain 13%
• Rick Perry 9%
• Ron Paul 6%
• Michele Bachmann 3%
• Jon Huntsman 3%
• Rick Santorum 2%

Tea Party Supporter (MoE: +/-6.5%)

• Newt Gingrich 43%
• Mitt Romney 23%
• Herman Cain 10%
• Rick Perry 6%
• Ron Paul 6%
• Jon Huntsman 3%
• Rick Santorum 3%
• Michele Bachmann 1%

Which Republican candidate is most likely to keep the same positions on important issues?

• Newt Gingrich 23%
• Mitt Romney 18%
• Herman Cain 16%
• Rick Perry 12%
• Ron Paul 10%
• Michele Bachmann 8%
• Jon Huntsman 2%
• Rick Santorum 2%

Tea Party Supporter (MoE: +/-6.5%)

• Newt Gingrich 30%
• Herman Cain 18%
• Mitt Romney 14%
• Rick Perry 12%
• Michele Bachmann 9%
• Ron Paul 9%
• Rick Santorum 3%
• Jon Huntsman 1%

Which Republican candidate do you think is the strongest leader?

• Newt Gingrich 29% (9%)
• Mitt Romney 26% (21%)
• Herman Cain 15% (4%)
• Rick Perry 13% (36%)
• Ron Paul 7% (6%)
• Michele Bachmann 2% (4%)
• Rick Santorum 2% (1%)
• Jon Huntsman 1% (1%)

Tea Party Supporter (MoE: +/-6.5%)

• Newt Gingrich 40%
• Mitt Romney 23%
• Herman Cain 14%
• Rick Perry 10%
• Ron Paul 5%
• Rick Santorum 4%
• Michele Bachmann 1%
• Jon Huntsman 0%

Which Republican candidate do you think is the most likeable?

• Mitt Romney 29% {29%} (21%)
• Herman Cain 25% {34%} (4%)
• Newt Gingrich 9% {2%} (3%)
• Ron Paul 7% {4%} (7%)
• Rick Perry 14% {13%} (25%)
• Michele Bachmann 6% {8%} (11%)
• Rick Santorum 3% {3%} (2%)
• Jon Huntsman 2% {0%} (1%)

Which Republican candidate do you think has the best chance of beating Barack Obama in the general election next November?

• Mitt Romney 40% {41%} (26%)
• Newt Gingrich 21% {5%} (5%)
• Herman Cain 16% {24%} (3%)
• Rick Perry 9% {12%} (42%)
• Ron Paul 4% {7%} (5%)
• Michele Bachmann 2% {3%} (5%)
• Rick Santorum 2% {1%} (0%)
• Jon Huntsman 1% {1%} (2%)

Which Republican candidate is most likely to agree with you on the issues that matter most to you?

• Newt Gingrich 25% {9%} (6%)
• Herman Cain 18% {26%} (5%)
• Mitt Romney 16% {21%} (15%)
• Rick Perry 15% {16%} (26%)
• Ron Paul 9% {9%} (14%)
• Michele Bachmann 6% {9%} (8%)
• Jon Huntsman 2% {2%} (3%)
• Rick Santorum 2% {3%} (1%)

Tea Party Supporter (MoE: +/-6.5%)

• Newt Gingrich 30%
• Herman Cain 22%
• Rick Perry 12%
• Mitt Romney 11%
• Ron Paul 9%
• Michele Bachmann 8%
• Rick Santorum 3%
• Jon Huntsman 1%

Which Republican candidate is most likely to be able to get the economy moving?

• Mitt Romney 25% {26%} (26%)
• Herman Cain 20% {33%} (4%)
• Newt Gingrich 19% {8%} (6%)
• Rick Perry 12% {14%} (35%)
• Ron Paul 9% {5%} (10%)
• Michele Bachmann 3% {3%} (4%)
• Rick Santorum 3% {3%} (1%)
• Jon Huntsman 0% {1%} (1%)

Survey of 402 Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents was conducted November, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted November 11-13, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 14-16, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 23-25, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 9-11, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 24-25, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 5-7, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 18-20, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 24-26, 2011 are in square brackets.