Poll Watch: Rasmussen 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

Rasmussen 2012 GOP Nomination Poll

• Mitt Romney 30% [29%] (17%) {23%} [29%] (24%) {18%} [22%] (33%) {17%} [24%] (20%) 
• Newt Gingrich 27% [16%] (38%) {14%} [10%] (9%) {5%} [6%] (9%) {9%} [11%] (13%)
• Rick Santorum 15% [21%] (4%) {1%} [2%] (3%) {1%}  
• Ron Paul 13% [12%] (8%) {7%} [5%] (6%) {9%} [10%] (7%) {8%} [4%] (5%)
• Rick Perry 4% [4%] (4%) {8%} [9%] (28%) {29%} [18%]

Are you certain you will vote for that candidate or is it possible that something come up that causes you to change your mind?

• Certain 41%
• Could change mind 51%
• No preference yet 7%

Suppose your favorite candidate does not win the nomination. When the general election is held, would you be most likely to vote for the Republican candidate, President Barack Obama, or a third party candidate?

• Republican candidate 76%
• President Barack Obama 10%
• Third party candidate 8%

Note: Paul’s supporters continue to be the ones most likely to vote third party, with 29% saying they would do so.

Survey of 1,000 likely GOP primary voters was conducted January17 , 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted January 4, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 30, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 2, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 12, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 19, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 15, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 28, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 14, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 26, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 18, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 1, 2010 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

The story in the new numbers, taken Tuesday night, is Gingrich’s jump 11 points from 16% two weeks ago. Romney’s support is essentially unchanged from 29% at that time, while Santorum is down six points from 21%. Paul’s and Perry’s support is also unchanged. This suggests that many voters are still looking for an alternative to Romney and currently see Gingrich as that candidate.

Among Republican primary voters nationwide, 34% think Romney is the GOP candidate who would do a better job managing the economy, but almost as many (29%) feel Gingrich would do the better job. Paul’s a distant third at 14%. When it comes to national security and defense, Gingrich is the clear leader: 43% think he would do a better job versus 18% who say the same of Romney.

The jump in Gingrich’s support nationally comes after a Monday night debate in which most analysts said the former speaker did very well.

Still, 70% of Republican voters nationally believe Romney will ultimately win the party’s nomination. Just 13% think Gingrich will get the party’s nod. A plurality (43%) continues to believe Romney would be the strongest challenger to Obama, but 29% now think that of Gingrich, up from 17% two weeks ago. Paul remains the GOP candidate viewed as the weakest potential challenger.

Gingrich and Perry have been especially critical of Romney’s performance as a venture capitalist at the Bain Capital firm and have highlighted the job losses from some of his investments. But 59% of likely GOP primary voters feel that Romney’s business experience is primarily a reason to vote for him, while just 20% think it’s chiefly a reason to vote against him. Twenty-one percent (21%) are undecided.

The former Massachusetts governor is still the best liked of the GOP hopefuls, with favorables of 68%. Santorum is viewed favorably by 59%, Gingrich by 58%, Perry by 41% and Paul by 34%.

Gingrich leads Romney 35% to 25% among GOP voters who describe themselves as Very Conservative, while Romney posts a similar 33% to 23% lead among those who are Somewhat Conservative. Santorum still gets 18% support from Very Conservative voters, but that’s down slightly from two weeks ago. Gingrich has been pushing for conservatives to rally behind his candidacy to stop the more moderate Romney from getting the nomination.

Among Tea Party Republicans, it’s Gingrich 39%, Romney 21% and Santorum 20%. Romney holds a double-digit lead over Gingrich among GOP voters who are not members of the grassroots movement.

Romney also holds modest leads among all religious groups except Evangelical Christians. Those voters prefer Gingrich over Romney by nearly two-to-one – 36% to 19% - with Santorum at 16% and Paul at 12%.

Just eight percent (8%) of GOP voters think the country is heading in the right direction, and only 12% even somewhat approve of Obama’s performance as president. Eighty percent (80%) believe it is at least somewhat likely the Republican nominee will win the election in November, including 45% who say it is Very Likely.