Poll Watch: CNN/ORC 2012 Presidential Survey

CNN/ORC 2012 Presidential Poll

Among Likely Voters

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 52% (48%) {49%}
  
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 46% (48%) {47%}

Among Registered Voters 

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 53% (52%) {52%} [52%] (49%) {49%} [52%] (54%) {51%} [47%] (52%) {47%} [49%] (49%) {54%}
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 45% (45%) {43%} [45%] (46%) {46%} [43%] (43%) {46%} [48%] (45%) {51%} [48%] (48%) {43%}

Among Independents

• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 54% (52%) {48%} [42%] (49%) {51%} [43%]
• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 40% (42%) {45%} [53%] (42%) {39%} [48%] 
  

Among Moderates

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 59% (59%) {57%} [61%] (55%) {55%} [67%]
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 37% (38%) {37%} [35%] (40%) {42%} [25%]

Among Men

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 48% (43%) {43%} [51%] (44%) {48%} [49%]  
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 47% (55%) {53%} [45%] (49%) {47%} [46%]

Among Women

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 55% (54%) {54%} [53%] (54%) {49%} [55%]
  
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 44% (42%) {42%} [44%] (43%) {46%} [39%]

(Among Obama voters) Is that more a vote FOR Barack Obama or more a vote AGAINST Mitt Romney?

Among Likely Voters

• Vote for Obama 74%
• Vote against Romney 23%

Among Registered Voters

• Vote for Obama 69% [77%]
• Vote against Romney 28% [21%]

(Asked of Romney voters) Is that more a vote FOR Mitt Romney or more a vote AGAINST Barack Obama?

Among Likely Voters

• Vote for Romney 48%
• Vote against Obama 47%

Among Registered Voters

• Vote for Romney 48% [34%]
• Vote against Obama 47% [65%]

Now suppose that the presidential candidates on the ballot in your state included Barack Obama as the Democratic Party's candidate, Mitt Romney as the Republican candidate, Gary Johnson as the Libertarian party candidate, and Jill Stein as the Green party candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for?

Among Likely Voters

• Barack Obama 51%
• Mitt Romney 43%
• Gary Johnson 3%
• Jill Stein 1%

Among Registered Voters

• Barack Obama 50%
• Mitt Romney 41%
• Gary Johnson 4%
• Jill Stein 2%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

Among Likely Voters

• Michelle Obama 68% / 28% {+40%}
• Ann Romney 55% / 26% {+29%}
• Barack Obama 57% (51%) {52%} / 42% (48%) {47%} {+15%}
• Mitt Romney 48% (53%) {50%} / 47% (43%) {46%} {+1%} 

Among Registered Voters

• Michelle Obama 69% / 27% {+42%}
• Ann Romney 51% / 27% {+24%}
• Barack Obama 57% (54%) {54%} [55%] (54%) {53%} [55%] (55%) {51%} [48%] / 41% (44%) {44%} [44%] (45%) {46%} [43%] (44%) {47%} [50%] {+16%}
• Mitt Romney 47% (49%) {48%} [48%] (49%) {51%} [46%] (39%) {36%} [44%] / 48% (43%) {46%} [47%] (42%) {41%} [44%] (49%) {54%} [43%] {-1%} 

I'm going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me if you think Barack Obama or Mitt Romney would better handle that issue if they were elected President.

THE ECONOMY

Likely Voters

• Barack Obama 50% (45%) {46%} 
  
• Mitt Romney 49% (51%) {50%}

Registered Voters

• Barack Obama 49% (46%) {46%} (47%)
• Mitt Romney 48% (48%) {49%} (48%)

FOREIGN POLICY

Likely Voters

• Barack Obama 54% (49%) {51%}
• Mitt Romney 42% (46%) {44%}

Registered Voters

• Barack Obama 54% (53%) {55%} (53%)
• Mitt Romney 41% (41%) {40%} (41%)

MEDICARE

Likely Voters

• Barack Obama 54% (49%) {49%}
• Mitt Romney 43% (46%) {48%}

Registered Voters

• Barack Obama 55% (50%) {50%}
• Mitt Romney 42% (43%) {45%}

THE FEDERAL BUDGET DEFICIT

Likely Voters

• Mitt Romney 50% {52%}
• Barack Obama 47% {42%}

Registered Voters

• Mitt Romney 51% {50%} (52%)
• Barack Obama 45% {42%} (42%)

TAXES

Likely Voters

• Barack Obama 51% {50%}
• Mitt Romney 46% {46%}

Registered Voters

• Barack Obama 50% {52%}
• Mitt Romney 46% {42%}

HEALTH CARE

Likely Voters

• Barack Obama 54% {49%}
• Mitt Romney 45% {48%}

Registered Voters

• Barack Obama 53% {50%} (51%)
• Mitt Romney 44% {46%} (44%)

ENERGY POLICY

Likely Voters

• Barack Obama 51% {51%}
• Mitt Romney 44% {45%}

Registered Voters

• Barack Obama 53% {51%}
• Mitt Romney 41% {44%}

EDUCATION

Likely Voters

• Barack Obama 59%
• Mitt Romney 38%

Registered Voters

• Barack Obama 63%
• Mitt Romney 34%

UNEMPLOYMENT

Likely Voters

• Barack Obama 51%
• Mitt Romney 47%

Registered Voters

• Barack Obama 52%
• Mitt Romney 46%

Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each one applies more to Barack Obama or more to Mitt Romney. Please feel free to name a candidate even if you may not support him.

SHARES YOUR VALUES

Likely Voters

• Barack Obama 51% {47%}
• Mitt Romney 44% {45%}

Registered Voters

• Barack Obama 52% {49%} [48%]
• Mitt Romney 41% {42%} [38%]

IS A STRONG AND DECISIVE LEADER

Likely Voters

• Barack Obama 50% (43%) {49%}
• Mitt Romney 44% (48%) {46%}

Registered Voters

• Barack Obama 54% (46%) {50%} (51%)
• Mitt Romney 40% (43%) {42%} (35%)

IS MORE HONEST AND TRUSTWORTHY  

Likely Voters

• Barack Obama 51% {49%}
• Mitt Romney 41% {42%}

Registered Voters

• Barack Obama 53% {50%} (44%)
• Mitt Romney 39% {39%} (34%)

HAS AN OPTIMISTIC VISION FOR THE COUNTRY'S FUTURE

Likely Voters

• Barack Obama 51% (43%) {48%}
• Mitt Romney 41% (47%) {45%}

Registered Voters

• Barack Obama 54% (47%) {51%}
• Mitt Romney 38% (42%) {41%}

HAS A CLEAR PLAN FOR SOLVING THE COUNTRY'S PROBLEMS  

Likely Voters

• Barack Obama 45% {39%}
• Mitt Romney 39% {45%}
  

Registered Voters

• Barack Obama 44% {39%} (37%)
• Mitt Romney 38% {41%} (36%)

IS IN TOUCH WITH THE PROBLEMS FACING MIDDLE CLASS AMERICANS TODAY

Likely Voters

• Barack Obama 57% (49%) {53%}
• Mitt Romney 37% (43%) {39%}

Registered Voters

• Barack Obama 58% (52%) {58%} (50%)
• Mitt Romney 35% (39%) {33%} (36%)

IS IN TOUCH WITH THE PROBLEMS FACING WOMEN TODAY

Likely Voters

• Barack Obama 59% (56%) {60%}
• Mitt Romney 34% (36%) {31%}

Registered Voters

• Barack Obama 61% (57%) {62%} (54%)
• Mitt Romney 30% (32%) {27%} (28%)

CAN MANAGE THE GOVERNMENT EFFECTIVELY  

Likely Voters

• Barack Obama 48% {44%}
• Mitt Romney 45% {48%}
  

Registered Voters

• Barack Obama 48% {43%} (45%)
• Mitt Romney 45% {46%} (41%)

Regardless of whom you support, and trying to be as objective as possible, who do you think will win the election in November –- Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

Among Likely Voters

• Barack Obama 59%
• Mitt Romney 37%

Among Registered Voters

• Barack Obama 61% [63%] [60%]
• Mitt Romney 36% [33%] [36%]

Does what you saw or read of the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte make you more likely or less likely to vote for Barack Obama?

Registered Voters

• More likely 46%
• Less likely 36%

At their convention, do you think the Democrats maintained the right balance between criticizing the Republicans and saying positive things about themselves, or do you think they spent too much time criticizing the Republicans?

Registered Voters

• Maintained the right balance 43%
• Too much time criticizing 45%

As you may know, the presidential candidates will hold televised debates later this fall. Who do you think is likely to do a better job in the presidential debates -- Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

Likely Voters

• Barack Obama 59%
• Mitt Romney 34%

Registered Voters

• Barack Obama 62%
• Mitt Romney 32%

Among Democrats

• Barack Obama 91%
• Mitt Romney 5%

Among Republicans

• Mitt Romney 75%
• Barack Obama 18%

Among Independents

• Barack Obama 55%
• Mitt Romney 34%

Survey of 875 registered voters, including 709 likely voters, was conducted September 7-9, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted August 31 - September 3, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 22-23, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 7-8, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 28 - July 1, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 29-31, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 13-15, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 24-25, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted February 10-13, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 11-12, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 16-18, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 11-13, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 23-25, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 5-7, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 29 - May 1, 2011 are in curly brackets.