Poll Watch: CNN/ORC 2012 Presidential Survey

CNN/ORC 2012 Presidential Poll

I'm going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me if you think Barack Obama or Mitt Romney would better handle that issue if they were elected President.

THE ECONOMY

Registered Voters

• Mitt Romney 49% (48%)
• Barack Obama 46% (47%)

Likely Voters

• Mitt Romney 50%
  
• Barack Obama 46%

FOREIGN POLICY

Registered Voters

• Barack Obama 55% (53%)
• Mitt Romney 40% (41%)

Likely Voters

• Barack Obama 51%
• Mitt Romney 44%

HEALTH CARE

Registered Voters

• Barack Obama 50% (51%)
• Mitt Romney 46% (44%)

Likely Voters

• Barack Obama 49%
• Mitt Romney 48%

THE FEDERAL BUDGET DEFICIT

Registered Voters

• Mitt Romney 50% (52%)
• Barack Obama 42% (42%)

Likely Voters

• Mitt Romney 52%
• Barack Obama 42%

MEDICARE

Registered Voters

• Barack Obama 50%
• Mitt Romney 45%

Likely Voters

• Barack Obama 49%
• Mitt Romney 48%

TAXES

Registered Voters

• Barack Obama 52%
• Mitt Romney 42%

Likely Voters

• Barack Obama 50%
• Mitt Romney 46%

Now I'm going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me if you think Barack Obama or Mitt Romney would better handle that issue if they were elected President.

ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION

Registered Voters

• Mitt Romney 48% (49%)
• Barack Obama 45% (46%)

Likely Voters

• Mitt Romney 52%
• Barack Obama 42%

TERRORISM

Registered Voters

• Barack Obama 52%
• Mitt Romney 40%

Likely Voters

• Barack Obama 50%
• Mitt Romney 43%

POLICIES TOWARD GAYS AND LESBIANS

Registered Voters

• Barack Obama 62%
• Mitt Romney 30%

Likely Voters

• Barack Obama 59%
• Mitt Romney 33%

WELFARE POLICY

Registered Voters

• Barack Obama 52%
• Mitt Romney 45%

Likely Voters

• Barack Obama 51%
• Mitt Romney 47%

ENERGY POLICY
 

Registered Voters

• Barack Obama 51%
• Mitt Romney 44%

Likely Voters

• Barack Obama 51%
• Mitt Romney 45% 

ABORTION POLICY
 

Registered Voters

• Barack Obama 55%
• Mitt Romney 36%

Likely Voters

• Barack Obama 53%
• Mitt Romney 40%

In general, do you think the policies being proposed by each of the following presidential candidates would move the country in the right direction or the wrong direction?

BARACK OBAMA

Registered Voters

• Right direction 52%
• Wrong direction 47%
  

Likely Voters

• Right direction 49%
• Wrong direction 50%

MITT ROMNEY

Registered Voters

• Right direction 51%
  
• Wrong direction 46%
  

Likely Voters

• Right direction 52%
  
• Wrong direction 45%
  

Survey of 924 registered voters, including 719 likely voters, was conducted August 22-23, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points among registered voters; +/- 3.5 percentage points among likely voters. Results from the poll conducted June 28 - July 1, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rutgers-Eagleton New Jersey Survey on Gay Marriage

Rutgers-Eagleton New Jersey Survey on Gay Marriage

Some people say gay marriage should be legal. Others oppose legalizing gay marriage. What is your position?

• Support gay marriage 54%
• Oppose gay marriage 35%

Among Independents

• Support gay marriage 56%
• Oppose gay marriage 30%

Among Democrats

• Support gay marriage 63%
• Oppose gay marriage 29%

Among Republicans

• Support gay marriage 35%
• Oppose gay marriage 56%

Governor Christie has proposed letting voters decide for or against gay marriage in November. Newark Mayor Cory Booker opposes this, saying civil rights issues should not be decided by voters. What about you? Do you support or oppose letting voters decide on legalizing gay marriage?

• Support referendum letting voters decide 53%
• Oppose referendum letting voters decide 40%

Among Independents

• Support referendum letting voters decide 60%
• Oppose referendum letting voters decide 33%

Among Democrats

• Support referendum letting voters decide 38%
• Oppose referendum letting voters decide 54%

Among Republicans

• Support referendum letting voters decide 68%
• Oppose referendum letting voters decide 27%

The Democratic leadership in the New Jersey legislature has made legalizing gay marriage a top priority. For you personally, is this issue the most important one facing New Jersey right now, one of a few very important issues, only somewhat important, or not important at all?

• Most Important 3%
• Very Important 19%
• Somewhat Important 36%
• Not Important 41%

Survey of 914 New Jersey registered voters was conducted February 9-11, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points. Party ID: 43% Independent; 37% Democrat; 20% Republican.

John McCain's 2008 200-Page Opposition Research File on Mitt Romney

McCain 2008 Oppo File

Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina Political Survey

PPP (D) North Carolina Political Poll

Would you vote for or against a constitutional amendment to provide that marriage between one man and one woman is the only domestic legal union that shall be valid or recognized in this State?

• Would vote for it 56%
• Would vote against it 34%

Among Democrats

• Would vote for it 46%
• Would vote against it 44%

Among Republicans

• Would vote for it 74%
• Would vote against it 17%

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

• Legal 32%
• Illegal 57%

Among Democrats

• Legal 40%
• Illegal 48%

Among Republicans

• Legal 16%
• Illegal 74%

Which of the following best describes your opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry, or there should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship?

• Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry 25%
• Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not marry 32%
• There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship 40%

Among Democrats

• Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry 36%
• Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not marry 28%
• There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship 32%

Among Republicans

• Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry 8%
• Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not marry 35%
• There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship 55%

Would you ever support a black candidate for public office, or not?

• Yes 92%
• No 4%
• Not sure 4%

Among Democrats

• Yes 94%
• No 3%
• Not sure 3%

Among Republicans

• Yes 88%
• No 6%
• Not sure 6%

Would you ever support a gay candidate for public office, or not?

• Yes 53%
• No 36%
• Not sure 11%

 Among Democrats

• Yes 58%
• No 31%
• Not sure 11%

Among Republicans

• Yes 37%
• No 51%
• Not sure 11%

Among Independents 

• Yes 67%
• No 24%
• Not sure 10%

Would you ever support a Muslim candidate for public office, or not?

• Yes 40%
• No 45%
• Not sure 14%

 Among Democrats

• Yes 48%
• No 35%
• Not sure 17%

Among Republicans

• Yes 19%
• No 68%
• Not sure 13%
  

Among Independents 

• Yes 52%
• No 37%
• Not sure 11%

Among Whites

• Yes 35%
• No 51%
• Not sure 13%

Among Blacks

• Yes 50%
• No 31%
• Not sure 19%

Do you think employers should be allowed to discriminate against employees based on sexual orientation, or not?

• They should be allowed to 10%
• They should not 82%
• Not sure 8%

Among Democrats

• They should be allowed to 8%
• They should not 85%
• Not sure 7%

Among Republicans

• They should be allowed to 14%
• They should not 76%
• Not sure 9%

Survey of 780 North Carolina voters was conducted January 5-8, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 48% Democrat; 34% Republican; 18% Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 30% Moderate; 27% Somewhat conservative; 18% Very conservative; 16% Somewhat liberal; 10% Very liberal.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Iowa 2012 Republican Caucus Survey

PPP (D) Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Survey

• Newt Gingrich 22% (27%) {8%} [5%] (15%) {19%}
• Ron Paul 21% (18%) {10%} [16%] (11%) {16%}
• Mitt Romney 16% (16%) {22%} [19%] (26%) {28%}
• Michele Bachmann 11% (13%) {8%} [18%] (14%) {15%}
• Rick Perry 9% (9%) {9%} [22%]
• Rick Santorum 8% (6%) {5%} [5%]
• Jon Huntsman 5% (4%) {1%} [3%] (1%)
• Gary Johnson 1% (1%) {1%}
• Someone else/Not sure 7% (7%) {5%} [5%] (8%) {12%}

Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?

• Strongly committed to that candidate 60% (55%)
• Might end up supporting someone else 40% (45%)

Second Choice 

• Newt Gingrich 14% (17%) {17%}
• Mitt Romney 13% (13%) {11%}
• Ron Paul 12% (10%) {9%}
• Michele Bachmann 11% (10%) {11%}
• Rick Perry 10% (11%) {12%}
• Rick Santorum 8% (9%) {5%}
• Jon Huntsman 7% (5%) {3%}
• Gary Johnson 1% (2%) {1%}
• Someone else/Not sure 25% (22%) {15%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Ron Paul 61% (52%) {37%} [53%] (42%) {55%} [47%] / 31% (38%) {46%} [29%] (29%) {17%} [23%] {+30%}
• Michele Bachmann 55% (56%) {44%} [47%] (53%) {49%} / 37% (35%) {38%} [35%] (16%) {13%} {+18%}
• Rick Santorum 49% (51%) {46%} [44%] (29%) {27%} [28%] / 33% (28%) {17%} [22%] (18%) {11%} [9%] {+16%}
• Newt Gingrich 52% (62%) {56%} [42%] (39%) {47%} [53%] / 40% (31%) {32%} [44%] (41%) {26%} [27%] {+12%}
• Mitt Romney 48% (49%) {51%} [45%] (51%) {55%} [57%] / 44% (45%) {36%} [38%] (34%) {25%} [26%] {+4%}
• Rick Perry 43% (44%) {38%} [56%] (21%) / 47% (46%) {41%} [24%] (16%) {-4%}
• Jon Huntsman 28% (30%) {18%} [13%] (7%) {5%} / 43% (45%) {28%} [40%] (23%) {8%} {-15%}

Which of the Republican candidates do you think has the best chance of defeating Barack Obama?

• Newt Gingrich 30% (33%)
• Mitt Romney 21% (23%)
• Ron Paul 14% (9%)
• Rick Perry 7% (7%)
• Michele Bachmann 5% (7%)
• Rick Santorum 3% (2%)
• Jon Huntsman 2% (3%)
• Gary Johnson 1% (1%)
• Someone else/Not sure 16% (14%)

Who do you think is going to win the Republican nomination for President?

• Newt Gingrich 26%
• Mitt Romney 21%
• Ron Paul 12%
• Rick Perry 5%
• Michele Bachmann 3%
• Rick Santorum 2%
• Jon Huntsman 1%
• Gary Johnson 0%
• Someone else/Not sure 31%

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 27% (32%) {29%} [33%] (31%) {28%}
• No 61% (58%) {52%} [51%] (48%) {48%}

What is more important to you when deciding who to vote for: a candidate’s ability to beat Barack Obama in the general election, or their positions on the issues?

• A candidate's ability to beat Obama 32% (34%)
• Their issue positions 56% (57%)

Do you support or oppose gays openly serving in the military?

• Support 28%
• Oppose 41%
• Not sure 31%

Do you believe that there’s a ‘War on Christmas,’ or not?

• There is a War on Christmas 46%
• There is not 24%
• Not sure 30%

Survey of 555 likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers was conducted December 11-13, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points.  Party ID: 78% (80%) Republican; 17% (14%) Independent/Other; 4% (6%) Democrat.  Political ideology: 42% (40%) {36%} [38%] (41%) {44%} Very conservative; 35% (37%) {36%} [34%] (37%) {33%} Somewhat conservative; 17% (15%) {21%} [21%] (14%) {17%} Moderate; 4% (3%) {3%} [3%] (2%) {2%} Very liberal; 3% (5%) {4%} [3%] (6%) {4%} Somewhat liberal.  Results from the poll conducted December 3-5, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 7-10, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 19-21, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 27-30, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 15-17, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 7-9, 2011are in square brackets.

Rick Perry's Homophobic 2012 Ad: "Strong"

Watch The Second City Network's Reaction To Rick Perry's Homophobic Ad

Rick Perry, Nelson Warfield, and the Gays - By David Weigel, Slate
Rick Perry and the Gays, Part II (Full Sequence) - By David Weigel, Slate

Rick Perry's Anti-Gay Iowa Ad Divides His Top Staff - By Sam Stein, Huffington Post

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

John McCain on Face the Nation

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC Political Survey

CNN/ORC Political Survey

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

• Approve 44%
• Disapprove 54%

(IF DISAPPROVE) Do you disapprove because you think his policies and actions since he became president have been too liberal, or because you think his policies and actions have not been liberal enough?

• Approve 44%
• Disapprove/Too liberal 36%
• Disapprove/Not liberal enough 16%
• Disapprove 2%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling:

Terrorism

• Approve 62%
• Disapprove 35%

Foreign Affairs

• Approve 47%
• Disapprove 50%

Unemployment

• Approve 37%
• Disapprove 60%

The economy

• Approve 34%
• Disapprove 64%

The federal budget deficit

• Approve 34%
• Disapprove 64%

Which of the following is the most important issue facing the country today?

• The economy 60%
• The federal budget deficit 16%
• Health care 9%
• The situation in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya 5%
• Illegal immigration 4%
• Terrorism 3%
• Policies toward gays and lesbians 1%

And, thinking specifically about the economy, which of the following is the most important economic issue facing the country today?

• Unemployment 49%
• The federal budget deficit 27%
• The price of gasoline 12%
• Taxes 5%
• Mortgages and housing costs 3%
• The stock market 2%

As you may know, Congress passed and President Obama signed into law a bill that raises the federal government's debt ceiling through the year 2013 and makes major cuts in government spending over the next few years. Based on what you have read or heard, do you approve or disapprove of that bill?

• Approve 48%
• Disapprove 50%

Do you think the cuts in government spending included in that bill go too far, do not go far enough,or are about right?

• Too far 21%
• Not far enough 48%
• About right 27%

Do you think that bill treats all Americans fairly, or do you think it benefits the rich at the expense of the poor and middle class?

• Treats all fairly 27%
• Benefits the rich 62%

Survey of 1,008 adults, including 930 registered voters, was conducted August 5-7, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.

CNN State of the Union: Giuliani Makes Case for Why He'd Be Best GOP Presidential Candidate

Think Progress: Giuliani: ‘ The Republican Party Would Be Well Advised To Get The Heck Out Of People’s Bedrooms’ (VIDEO)
CNN: Giuliani to GOP: Stay out of gay marriage
POLITICO: Giuliani to GOP on gay marriage: 'Stay out of it'

"I think the Republican Party would be well advised to get the heck out of people's bedrooms and let these things get decided by states," Giuliani said Sunday on CNN's "State of the Union."  

The libertarian streak of the Republican party, he added, should want to avoid “getting involved in people’s sexual lives.” 

“Stay out of it,” Giuliani said."We'd be a much more successful political party if we stuck to our economic, conservative roots and our idea of a strong, assertive America that is not embarrassed to be the leader of the world.” 

Giuliani, who is considering a run for president in 2012, has long supported civil unions. Although he said he believes marriage is between a man and a woman, he can "live with" the legalization in New York. 

"I think it's wrong, but there are other things that I think are wrong that get decided by democratic vote," Giuliani told CNN Chief Political Correspondent Candy Crowley. "I see more harm, however, by dwelling so much on this subject of gays and lesbians and whether it's right or wrong in politics."

Poll Watch: PPP (D) New Hampshire Political Survey

Which of the following best describes your opinion on gay marriage?  Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry; or, gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry; or, there should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship.

Among Republicans

• Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry 14%
• Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry 47%
• There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship 38%

Among Independents

• Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry 47%
• Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry 36%
• There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship 13%

Survey of 769 New Hampshire voters was conducted March 31 - April 3, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 35% Democrat; 29% Republican; 36% Independent/Other. Political ideology: 32% Moderate; 23% Somewhat conservative; 21% Somewhat liberal; 15% Very conservative; 9% Very liberal. 

Giuliani at Dartmouth: Top Three Economic Fixes

Giuliani: Obama, GOP Leaders ‘Acting Like Children’
Dartmouth Leading Voices in Politics and Policy (Photos)

At Dartmouth, Giuliani chided President Obama and Congressional Republicans for refusing to compromise in their ongoing talks on whether to raise the federal debt limit. Republicans need to accept lower spending cuts and Obama has to give up trying to raise taxes, he said. 

"They're not acting like adults. They're acting like children in a playpen who want all the toys to themselves," said the former mayor. 

In an interview after the government classes, Giuliani offered his cure for the ailing economy — reduce the federal budget, lower taxes, and realize that the economy is an integral part of the country’s foreign policy.

“An America with a weak economy is an America with a national security problem. We’ve got to pay a lot more attention to our economy. We’ve got to pay a lot more attention to our global relationships,” he said.

Can the more moderate Giuliani — who told students he opposes abortion but wouldn't outlaw the procedure, and spoke out against discrimination of gays and lesbians — win the backing of the GOP base, a student asked Giuliani. 

"That happens to be exactly what I'm thinking right at this minute as I'm here in New Hampshire," he said.

Is Rudy Giuliani running for president?

Giuliani told the students that success in politics is part calculation and part luck. And even though he hasn't made up his mind whether or not to run for president, he did make this prediction: "Unemployment is now 9.2 percent. If unemployment stays at 9.2 percent or gets worse, I don't care how good a politician President Obama is or how bad the Republican nominee is, the next president will be a Republican." 

On the other hand, Giuliani said if unemployment goes down to 6 percent or maybe 7 percent, it will be hard to beat Obama, no matter how good the Republican candidate is. 

"Even if it is me," he said.

Poll Watch: Magellan Strategies (R) Massachusetts Republican Survey on RomneyCare

Magellan Strategies (R) Massachusetts GOP Survey on RomneyCare

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Massachusetts Health Care Plan that was enacted by Governor Mitt Romney and the Massachusetts Legislature in 2006?

• Very Favorable 15%
• Somewhat Favorable 15%
• Somewhat Unfavorable 17%
• Very Unfavorable 34%

• Total Favorable 30%
• Total Unfavorable 51%

Do you think the state of Massachusetts should keep the Health Care Plan or repeal it and replace it with something else?

• Repeal Health Care Plan and replace it 53%
• Keep Health Care Plan 29%

Do you think the Massachusetts Health Care Plan will help Mitt Romney's presidential campaign, hurt Mitt Romney's presidential campaign, or will it not make much of a difference at all?

• Help Romney's campaign 13%
• Hurt Romney's campaign 42%
• Not make much difference 43%

How would you describe Mitt Romney's time as Governor of Massachusetts? Would you say he was a "Tea Party conservative" seeking drastic changes to reduce the size of government, or as an "Establishment Republican" willing to compromise with Democrats and maintain the status quo, or a "Moderate or Liberal Republican" who is economically conservative, but liberal on social issues like abortion and gay rights?

• Establishment Republican 40%
• Moderate or Liberal Republican 37%
• Tea Party Conservative 13%

Survey of 740 likely 2012 Massachusetts Republican Presidential primary voters was conducted April 25-26, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 55% Republican; 45% Independent.