Thursday, January 05, 2012

Poll Watch: Rasmussen 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

Rasmussen 2012 GOP Nomination Poll
  • Mitt Romney 29% (17%) {23%} [29%] (24%) {18%} [22%] (33%) {17%} [24%] (20%
  • Rick Santorum 21% (4%) {1%} [2%] (3%) {1%}  
  • Newt Gingrich 16% (38%) {14%} [10%] (9%) {5%} [6%] (9%) {9%} [11%] (13%)
  • Ron Paul 12% (8%) {7%} [5%] (6%) {9%} [10%] (7%) {8%} [4%] (5%)
  • Rick Perry 4% (4%) {8%} [9%] (28%) {29%} [18%]
  • Jon Huntsman 4% (3%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {1%} [2%] (2%)
Survey of 1,000 likely GOP primary voters was conducted January 4, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted November 30, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 2, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 12, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 19, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 15, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 28, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 14, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 26, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 18, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 1, 2010 are in parentheses.
Inside the numbers:
It’s important to note that just 34% of likely GOP primary voters say they are certain of their vote at this time. Fifty-five percent (55%) say they still could change their mind, and 11% don’t have an initial preference yet. Those certain of their vote include 44% of Paul’s supporters, 43% of those who back Romney and 40% of Gingrich’s voters. Just 30% of those who support Santorum are certain of their vote at this time.

Evangelical Christian support was considered key to Santorum’s strong showing in Iowa, and the former Pennsylvania senator leads among Republican voters who are Evangelical Christians with 28% support. Romney and Gingrich are next with 21% and 18% support respectively among these voters.

Romney is the top voter-getter among other Protestants, Catholics and Republicans of other faiths, with roughly one-third of the vote in each group.

Among Republicans who consider themselves members of the Tea Party, Santorum is on top with 29% support, followed by Romney and Gingrich who earn 24% each. Romney is far ahead among non-Tea Party Republicans with 34% of the vote.

Romney is now viewed favorably by 68% of Republican voters, closely followed by Santorum who is seen that way by 63%. Fifty-two percent (52%) have a favorable opinion of Gingrich. The other candidates have higher unfavorables than favorables among GOP voters – Perry (49%), Huntsman (47%) and Paul (59%). One-in-four voters (25%) still say they don’t know enough about Huntsman to even voice an opinion of him.

Mitt Romney 2012 Ad: "Free Enterprise"

Newt Gingrich 2012 Ad: "Timid vs Bold"

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Survey on Abortion

Rasmussen Survey on Abortion

Generally speaking, on the issue of abortion, do you consider yourself pro-choice or pro-life?
  • Pro-Choice 49% [49%] (50%)
  • Pro-Life 43% [41%] (40%)
National survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted January 2, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted May 23-24, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 14-15, 2011 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:
While women tend to lean towards being pro-choice over pro-life, 52% to 41%, men are evenly divided on the issue. Women also place more importance on abortion as a voting issue compared to men.
Republicans are mostly pro-life; most Democrats are pro-choice. Among voters not affiliated with either party, 48% are pro-choice, and 42% are pro-life.

Most Tea Party voters are pro-life, while a majority of those who do not consider themselves part of that movement are pro-choice.

Most black voters (67%) and other non-white voters (55%) are pro-choice, while white voters are evenly divided on the issue. 

Wednesday, January 04, 2012

Rick Santorum on 'John King, U.S.A.'

John McCain and Mitt Romney on 'Hannity'

Part 1

Part 2

Rick Santorum on The O'Reilly Factor

The Daily Rundown: Interview with Newt Gingrich

Mitt Romney on Morning Joe

Jon Huntsman on Morning Joe

USA Today/Gallup: Election Matters: Post-Iowa Insights

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Kansas 2012 Presidential Survey

SurveyUSA Kansas 2012 Presidential Poll

Which Republican has the best chance to beat Barack Obama in the general election in November?

Among Republicans
  • Mitt Romney 38%
  • Newt Gingrich 20%
  • Ron Paul 13%
  • Rick Santorum 12%
  • Michele Bachmann 7%
  • Rick Perry 5%
  • Not sure 5%
Among Tea Party Members
  • Rick Santorum 27%
  • Newt Gingrich 22%
  • Mitt Romney 22%
  • Michele Bachmann 12%
  • Ron Paul 10%
  • Rick Perry 2%
  • Not sure 4%
Survey of 502 registered voters, including subsamples of 284 Republicans and 97 Tea Party members, was conducted January 3, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.

Bachmann Backs Out of Presidential Race


Poll Watch: Gallup 2012 Republican Nomination Daily Tracking Survey

Gallup 2012 GOP Nomination Daily Tracking Poll
  • Mitt Romney 26% [24%] (26%) {27%} [25%] (24%) {23%} [22%] (21%) {23%} [23%] (24%) {24%} [24%] (24%) {23%} [22%] (23%) {23%} [23%] (23%) {25%} [23%] (22%)
  • Newt Gingrich 22% [23%] (24%) {23%} [25%] (25%) {26%} [26%] (27%) {25%} [25%] (26%) {28%} [28%] (29%) {31%} [31%] (33%) {33%} [35%] (37%{34%} [36%] (37%)
  • Ron Paul 13% [13%] (11%) {11%} [11%] (11%) {12%} [13%] (12%) {12%} [12%] (11%) {10%} [10%] (10%) {9%} [8%] (8%) {9%} [9%] (9%) {10%} [9%] (8%)
  • Rick Santorum 8% [6%] (5%) {4%} [4%] (3%) {3%} [3%] (4%) {4%} [4%] (4%) {4%} [4%] (4%) {4%} [4%] (3%) {2%} [3%] (2%) {2%} [3%] (3%) 
  • Rick Perry 6% [7%] (7%) {8%} [8%] (8%) {8%} [8%] (7%) {8%} [8%] (7%) {6%} [6%] (5%) {6%} [7%] (6%) {6%} [6%] (6%) {5%} [6%] (7%)
  • Jon Huntsman 2% [2%] (2%) {2%} [1%] (2%) {1%} [1%] (1%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (1%) {1%} [1%] (1%)
Survey of at least 1,000 registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents was conducted December 27, 2011 - January 3, 2012. The margin of error is ± 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted December 26, 2011 - January 2, 2012 are in Results from the poll conducted December 23-29, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 22-28, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 21-27, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 20-26, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 19-23, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 18-22, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 17-21, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 15-20, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 14-19, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 13-18, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 12-17, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 11-16, 2011 are in Results from the poll conducted December 10-14, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 9-13, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 8-12, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 7-11, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 6-10, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conductedDecember 5-9, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 4-8, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 3-7, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 2-6, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 1-5, 2011 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen 2012 Presidential Survey

Rasmussen 2012 Presidential Poll
  • Barack Obama 49% (47%) {48%} [49%] (45%) {43%} [46%] (50%) {44%} [49%] (48%) {49%} [47%]
  • Newt Gingrich 39% (37%) {37%} [39%] (40%) {45%} [40%] (38%) {38%} [34%] (30%) {37%} [39%]
Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted January 2, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted December 26, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 18-19, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 12-13, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 6-7, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 28-29, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 19-20, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 11-12, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 3-4, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 12-13, 2011are in square brackets.  Results from the polls conducted June 24-25, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted March 18-19, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 15-16, 2011 are in square brackets.
Inside the numbers:
Men give Gingrich a modest 46% to 42% edge over Obama, while women favor the president by 22 points.

Voters not affiliated with either major political party prefer Obama 45% to 35%.

Gingrich is heavily favored by Tea Party voters, while Obama has a large lead among those not affiliated with the movement.

While the president draws strong support from labor union members, he also leads Gingrich 47% to 41% among those who are not unionized.

Tuesday, January 03, 2012

Mitt Romney on Morning Joe

Poll Watch: Gallup 2012 Republican Nomination Daily Tracking Survey

Gallup 2012 GOP Nomination Daily Tracking Poll
  • Mitt Romney 24% (26%) {27%} [25%] (24%) {23%} [22%] (21%) {23%} [23%] (24%) {24%} [24%] (24%) {23%} [22%] (23%) {23%} [23%] (23%) {25%} [23%] (22%)
  • Newt Gingrich 23% (24%) {23%} [25%] (25%) {26%} [26%] (27%) {25%} [25%] (26%) {28%} [28%] (29%) {31%} [31%] (33%) {33%} [35%] (37%{34%} [36%] (37%)
  • Ron Paul 13% (11%) {11%} [11%] (11%) {12%} [13%] (12%) {12%} [12%] (11%) {10%} [10%] (10%) {9%} [8%] (8%) {9%} [9%] (9%) {10%} [9%] (8%)
  • Rick Perry 7% (7%) {8%} [8%] (8%) {8%} [8%] (7%) {8%} [8%] (7%) {6%} [6%] (5%) {6%} [7%] (6%) {6%} [6%] (6%) {5%} [6%] (7%)
  • Rick Santorum 6% (5%) {4%} [4%] (3%) {3%} [3%] (4%) {4%} [4%] (4%) {4%} [4%] (4%) {4%} [4%] (3%) {2%} [3%] (2%) {2%} [3%] (3%)
  • Michele Bachmann 5% (5%) {5%} [5%] (6%) {6%} [6%] (6%) {7%} [6%] (7%) {7%} [8%] (7%) {6%} [6%] (6%) {5%} [6%] (6%) {7%} [6%] (6%)  
  • Jon Huntsman 2% (2%) {2%} [1%] (2%) {1%} [1%] (1%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (1%) {1%} [1%] (1%)
Survey of at least 1,000 registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents was conducted December 26, 2011 - January 2, 2012. The margin of error is ± 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted December 23-29, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 22-28, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 21-27, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 20-26, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 19-23, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 18-22, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 17-21, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 15-20, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 14-19, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 13-18, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 12-17, 2011are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 11-16, 2011 are in Results from the poll conducted December 10-14, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 9-13, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 8-12, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 7-11, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 6-10, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conductedDecember 5-9, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 4-8, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 3-7, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 2-6, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 1-5, 2011 are in parentheses.

The Early Show: Interview with Newt Gingrich

Rick Perry Goes On the Record with Greta

Hannity Interview with Newt Gingrich

Hannity Interview with Mitt Romney

Monday, January 02, 2012

Newt Gingrich Assesses His Competition

Jon Huntsman 2012 Ad: "The Ron Paul Chronicles"

Poll Watch: Rasmussen 2012 Presidential Survey

Rasmussen 2012 Presidential Survey
  • Barack Obama 46% (41%) {39%} [43%] (44%) {42%} [43%]
  • Jon Huntsman 33% (34%) {32%} [35%] (28%) {31%} [33%]
Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted December 29-30, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted December 2-3, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 20-21, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 16-17, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 2, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 30-31, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 31 - February 1, 2011 are in square brackets.
Inside the numbers:
Men prefer the president against Huntsman 46% to 36%, while women give Obama a 46% to 30% advantage.

Obama leads the Republican 45% to 23% among voters not affiliated with either major party. 
Labor union members favor the president four-to-one in this matchup, while non-members give Obama an eight-point lead. 
Huntsman leads the president among Tea Party voters 64% to 20%, but non-members favor Obama 55% to 25%.

Poll Watch: American Research Group Iowa 2012 Republican Caucus Survey

ARG Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Poll
  • Mitt Romney 22% (22%) {20%} [17%] (20%) {21%} [18%] (17%)
  • Ron Paul 17% (16%) {21%} [17%] (16%) {12%} [14%] (3%)  
  • Rick Santorum 16% (11%) {4%} [7%] (6%) {2%} [5%] (2%)
  • Newt Gingrich 15% (17%) {19%} [22%] (27%) {8%} [8%] (12%) 
  • Rick Perry 9% (9%) {9%} [13%] (5%) {14%} [2%] 
  • Michele Bachmann 8% (8%) {8%} [7%] (6%) {15%} [21%] (9%)
  • Jon Huntsman 4% (6%) {6%} [5%] (3%) {1%} [3%] (0%)
  • Buddy Roemer 1% (1%) {1%} [0%] (0%) {1%} [0%] (0%)
  • Other 1% (1%) {0%} [1%] (0%) {1%} [2%]
  • Undecided 7% (9%) {12%} [12%] (11%) {15%} [10%] (8%)
Among Likely GOP Caucus-Goers Saying They Will Definitely Participate in the Caucus (76%)
  • Mitt Romney 21% (23%) {20%}
  • Newt Gingrich 16% (19%) {22%}
  • Rick Santorum 16% (10%) {5%} 
  • Ron Paul 16% (16%) {17%}
  • Michele Bachmann 9% (8%) {8%}
  • Rick Perry 9% (8%) {10%}
  • Jon Huntsman 5% (5%) {5%}
  • Buddy Roemer 1% (1%) {1%}
  • Other 1% (1%) {0%}
  • Undecided 6% (9%) {12%}
Among Republicans (82%)
  • Mitt Romney 24% (23%) {21%}
  • Rick Santorum 17% (12%) {5%} 
  • Newt Gingrich 16% (19%) {20%}
  • Ron Paul 14% (12%) {17%}
  • Michele Bachmann 9% (9%) {10%}
  • Rick Perry 8% (8%) {9%}
  • Jon Huntsman 3% (6%) {5%}
  • Buddy Roemer 1% (1%) {1%}
  • Other 1% (1%) {0%}
  • Undecided 7% (9%) {12%}
Among Independents (18%)
  • Ron Paul 32% (30%) {33%}
  • Newt Gingrich 13% (12%) {17%}
  • Mitt Romney 13% (22%) {20%}
  • Rick Perry 13% (11%) {9%}
  • Rick Santorum 10% (6%) {0%}
  • Jon Huntsman 10% (6%) {8%} 
  • Michele Bachmann 4% (6%) {1%}
  • Buddy Roemer 0% (0%) {1%} 
  • Other 0% (1%) {0%}
  • Undecided 5% (9%) {13%}
Among Tea Party Supporters (40%)
  • Mitt Romney 24% (26%) {16%}
  • Newt Gingrich 21% (25%) {29%}
  • Rick Santorum 16% (7%) {6%} 
  • Ron Paul 11% (16%) {17%}
  • Rick Perry 10% (9%) {11%}
  • Michele Bachmann 9% (10%) {11%} 
  • Jon Huntsman 1% (0%) {0%}
  • Buddy Roemer 0% (0%) {0%}
  • Other 0% (0%) {0%}
  • Undecided 8% (7%) {10%}
Among Non-Tea Party Republican Caucus-Goers (60%)
  • Mitt Romney 21% (20%) {22%}
  • Ron Paul 21% (16%) {22%}
  • Rick Santorum 16% (13%) {3%} 
  • Newt Gingrich 12% (14%) {15%}
  • Michele Bachmann 8% (7%) {7%}
  • Rick Perry 8% (8%) {8%}
  • Jon Huntsman 6% (9%) {8%}
  • Buddy Roemer 1% (1%) {2%}
  • Other 1% (2%) {0%}
  • Undecided 6% (10%) {13%}
Survey 600 of likely Republican caucus-goers (491 Republicans, 98 Independents, and 10 Democrats) was conducted December 29, 2011 - January 1, 2012. The margin of error is ± 4 percentage points. Party ID: 82% (79%) {78%} Republican; 18% (21%) {22%} Independent. Preference by Likely to Vote: Definite 76% (81%) {83%}; Probably 24% (19%) {17%}.  Preference by Tea Party support: Supporter 40% (35%) {32%}; Not/Undecided 60% (65%) {42%}.   Results from the poll conducted December 26-28, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 19-22, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 8-11, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 17-23, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 22-27, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 5-11, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 12-19, 2011 are in parentheses.

Michele Bachmann 2012 Ad: "America's Iron Lady"

Poll Watch: NH Journal/Magellan Strategies (R) New Hampshire 2012 Republican Primary Survey

NH Journal/Magellan Strategies (R) New Hampshire 2012 GOP Primary Poll
  • Mitt Romney 41% {28.5%} [41%] (36%) {42%} [39%] (40%)
  • Ron Paul 21% {15.6%} [10%] (14%) {10%} [7%] (6%) 
  • Newt Gingrich 12% {27.1%} [6%] (2%) {3%} [8%] (16%)
  • Jon Huntsman 12% {7.9%} [6%] (3%) {3%}
  • Rick Santorum 4% {1.3%} [2%] (1%) {2%} [3%] (2%) 
  • Michele Bachmann 4% {2.0%} [4%] (10%) {10%}
  • Rick Perry 3% {1.7%} [2%] (18%)
  • Some other candidate 2% {1.6%}
  • Undecided 1% {4.4%} [8%] (10%) {8%} [8%] (6%)
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Mitt Romney 69% {60%} [68%] (66%) {69%} [73%] / 27% {32%} [22%] (24%) {22%} [16%] {+42%}
  • Ron Paul 47% {49%} [37%] (39%) {40%} [41%] / 42% {32%} [48%] (47%) {47%} [29%] {+5%}
  • Jon Huntsman 43% {30%} [24%] (20%) {14%} / 39% {43%} [49%] (47%) {36%} {+4%}
  • Rick Santorum 35% {28%} [33%] (30%) {33%} [27%] / 46% {48%} [44%] (42%) {36%} [20%] {-11%}
  • Newt Gingrich 37% {59%} [45%] (29%) {29%} [52%] / 58% {31%} [45%] (60%) {62%} [32%] {-21%
  • Michele Bachmann 29% {29%} [33%] (49%) {55%} / 60% {57%} [56%] (39%) {28%} {-31%}
  • Rick Perry 19% {21%} [19%] (51%) / 69% {66%} [66%] (27%) {-50%}
Survey of 648 likely Republican primary voters was conducted December 27-28, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 3.85 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 59% {60%} [68%] (70%) {74%} [67%] (66%) Republican; 41% {40%} [32%] (30%) {26%} [33%] (34%) Independent.  Political ideology: Conservative 59% {61%} [60%] (65%) {63%} [81%] (68%); Moderate 36% {33%} [36%] (30%) {32%} [15%] (26%); Liberal 5% {4%} [3%] (4%) {4%} [1%] (6%).  Results from the poll conducted November 15-16, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 12-13, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 15-16, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 14-15, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 4, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 25, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research (R) Iowa 2012 Republican Caucus Survey

InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research (R) Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Poll
  • Mitt Romney 22.7% (17.2%) {18.2%} [11.9%] (11.5%) {18.7%} [14.9%] (18.1%) 
  • Ron Paul 22.4% (17.3%) {23.9%} [16.5%] (13.3%) {11.4%} [8.7%] (9.6%) 
  • Rick Santorum 18.0% (13.4%) {2.9%} [6.8%] (3.3%) {3.4%} 
  • Newt Gingrich 16.1% (16.7%) {12.9%} [27.1%] (28.1%) {14.5%} [11.7%] (12.1%)
  • Rick Perry 9.6% (10.5%) {15.5%} [13.2%] (6.6%) {8.8%} [5.6%] (5.8%)
  • Michele Bachmann 5.8% (11.8%) {10.1%} [10.3%] (10.1%) {5.4%} [7.8%] (11.0%)  
  • Jon Huntsman 1.8% (2.8%) {3.8%} [3.6%] [1.9%] (0.9%)
  • Someone else 1.3% (3.0%) {0.8%} [1.4%] (3.2%) {1.7%} [5.5%] (3.0%)
  • No opinion 2.3% (7.3%) {11.9%} [9.2%] (14.1%) {12.8%} [14.2%] (13.1%)
Among Republicans
  • Mitt Romney 23.3% (20.7%) {19.7%}
  • Rick Santorum 20.4% (13.6%) {3.0%} 
  • Newt Gingrich 18.3% (18.0%) {14.9%}
  • Ron Paul 17.3% (10.9%) {21.9%
  • Rick Perry 10.2% (11.5%) {15.0%}
  • Michele Bachmann 6.1% (12.8%) {11.4%}
  • Jon Huntsman 1.3% (2.6%) {1.4%}
  • Someone else 0.7% (1.3%) {0.3%}
  • No opinion 2.3% (8.7%) {12.4%}
Among Independents
  • Ron Paul 38.2% (32.9%) {27.8%} 
  • Mitt Romney 18.4% (9.5%) {16.6%} 
  • Rick Santorum 15.0% (14.6%) {2.3%} 
  • Newt Gingrich 9.9% (12.8%) {8.4%}
  • Rick Perry 6.8% (9.1%) {18.7%}
  • Michele Bachmann 5.3% (7.3%) {7.5%}
  • Jon Huntsman 3.4% (3.0%) {8.6%}
  • Someone else 1.4% (6.9%) {0.6%}
  • No opinion 1.7% (3.7%) {9.5%}
Survey of 729 likely Iowa GOP caucus-goers was conducted January 1, 2012.  Party ID: 69.4% (69.5%) Republican; 25.7% (27.3%) Independent; 4.9% (3.3%) Democrat.  Results from the poll conducted December 28, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 18, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 12, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 28, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 8, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 3, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 16, 2011 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Iowa 2012 Republican Caucus Survey

PPP (D) Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Poll
  • Ron Paul 20% (24%) {23%} [21%] (18%) {10%} [16%] (11%) {16%}
  • Mitt Romney 19% (20%) {20%} [16%] (16%) {22%} [19%] (26%) {28%}
  • Rick Santorum 18% (10%) {10%} [8%] (6%) {5%} [5%]
  • Newt Gingrich 14% (13%) {14%} [22%] (27%) {8%} [5%] (15%) {19%}
  • Rick Perry 10% (10%) {10%} [9%] (9%) {9%} [22%]
  • Michele Bachmann 8% (11%) {10%} [11%] (13%) {8%} [18%] (14%) {15%}
  • Jon Huntsman 4% (4%) {4%} [5%] (4%) {1%} [3%] (1%)
  • Buddy Roemer 2% (2%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 4% (5%) {7%} [7%] (7%) {5%} [5%] (8%) {12%}
Among Republicans 
  • Mitt Romney 21% (22%) {22%} [15%] (16%) 
  • Rick Santorum 19% (11%) {10%} [8%] (7%) 
  • Newt Gingrich 17% (13%) {17%} [25%] (29%
  • Ron Paul 17% (20%) {19%} [17%] (15%)
  • Rick Perry 11% (12%) {11%} [10%] (10%)
  • Michele Bachmann 8% (10%) {10%} [12%] (13%)
  • Jon Huntsman 2% (4%) {2%} [3%] (3%)
  • Buddy Roemer 1% (1%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 4% (7%) {7%} [8%] (6%)
Among Independents
  • Ron Paul 33% (46%) {34%} [35%] (34%) 
  • Rick Santorum 14% (9%) {9%} [6%] (1%)
  • Mitt Romney 14% (11%) {13%} [15%] (11%)  
  • Jon Huntsman 10% (5%) {11%} [13%] (7%)
  • Newt Gingrich 7% (8%) {6%} [12%] (21%)  
  • Rick Perry 6% (4%) {7%} [6%] (7%)
  • Buddy Roemer 5% (3%)
  • Michele Bachmann 5% (13%) {10%} [8%] (7%)  
  • Someone else/Not sure 6% (2%) {6%} [3%] (9%)
Regularly Watch Fox News
  • Mitt Romney 24% (27%)
  • Newt Gingrich 21% (16%)
  • Rick Santorum 18% (11%)
  • Ron Paul 11% (12%)
  • Rick Perry 10% (10%)
  • Michele Bachmann 9% (15%)
  • Jon Huntsman 2% (2%)
  • Buddy Roemer 1% (2%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 4% (6%)
Do NOT Regularly Watch Fox News
  • Ron Paul 30% (38%) 
  • Rick Santorum 18% (10%)
  • Mitt Romney 15% (13%)
  • Rick Perry 9% (9%) 
  • Newt Gingrich 8% (9%)
  • Michele Bachmann 7% (7%)
  • Jon Huntsman 6% (6%)
  • Buddy Roemer 3% (2%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 4% (5%)
Evangelicals
  • Rick Santorum 24% (15%)
  • Newt Gingrich 16% (14%)
  • Mitt Romney 15% (16%) 
  • Ron Paul 15% (21%
  • Rick Perry 12% (12%)
  • Michele Bachmann 11% (15%)  
  • Buddy Roemer 2% (0%)
  • Jon Huntsman 1% (1%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 4% (6%)
Non-Evangelicals
  • Ron Paul 25% (27%)
  • Mitt Romney 24% (24%)
  • Newt Gingrich 13% (11%)
  • Rick Santorum 12% (7%)
  • Rick Perry 8% (8%)
  • Jon Huntsman 7% (7%)
  • Michele Bachmann 5% (8%)
  • Buddy Roemer 3% (4%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 4% (5%)
Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?
  • Strongly committed to that candidate 76% (72%) {63%} [60%] (55%)
  • Might end up supporting someone else 24% (28%) {37%} [40%] (45%)
Among Those Strongly Committed to That Candidate
  • Ron Paul 24% (28%) {29%} [29%] (22%)
  • Mitt Romney 21% (21%) {23%} [18%] (20%)
  • Rick Santorum 18% (10%) {9%} [5%] (5%)
  • Newt Gingrich 14% (12%) {14%} [21%] (25%)
  • Rick Perry 9% (9%) {9%} [9%] (7%)
  • Michele Bachmann 8% (14%) {9%} [11%] (15%)
  • Jon Huntsman 4% (5%) {4%} [4%] (5%)
  • Buddy Roemer 2% (1%)
Among Those Who Might End Up Supporting Someone Else
  • Rick Santorum 20% (14%) {12%} [13%] (7%)
  • Newt Gingrich 19% (17%) {18%} [28%] (32%)
  • Mitt Romney 18% (22%) {19%} [14%] (13%)
  • Rick Perry 14% (13%) {14%} [12%] (14%)
  • Ron Paul 13% (21%) {18%} [13%] (16%)
  • Michele Bachmann 8% (7%) {13%} [13%] (14%)
  • Jon Huntsman 5% (3%) {4%} [6%] (4%)
  • Buddy Roemer 2% (4%) 
Second Choice 
  • Rick Perry 15% (11%) {14%} [10%] (11%) {12%}
  • Rick Santorum 14% (14%) {9%} [8%] (9%) {5%}
  • Michele Bachmann 13% (12%) {15%} [11%] (10%) {11%}
  • Newt Gingrich 11% (12%) {13%} [14%] (17%) {17%}
  • Mitt Romney 11% (10%) {12%} [13%] (13%) {11%}
  • Ron Paul 8% (9%) {9%} [12%] (10%) {9%}
  • Jon Huntsman 5% (7%) {7%} [7%] (5%) {3%}
  • Buddy Roemer 2% (1%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 22% (25%) {18%} [25%] (22%) {15%}
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Rick Santorum 60% (56%) {52%} [49%] (51%) {46%} [44%] (29%) {27%} [28%] / 30% (29%) {32%} [33%] (28%) {17%} [22%] (18%) {11%} [9%] {+30%}
  • Michele Bachmann 52% (53%) {52%} [55%] (56%) {44%} [47%] (53%) {49%} / 37% (37%) {34%} [37%] (35%) {38%} [35%] (16%) {13%} {+15%}
  • Rick Perry 52% (48%) {48%} [43%] (44%) {38%} [56%] (21%) / 39% (40%) {40%} [47%] (46%) {41%} [24%] (16%) {+13%}
  • Mitt Romney 48% (44%) {49%} [48%] (49%) {51%} [45%] (51%) {55%} [57%] / 44% (47%) {40%} [44%] (45%) {36%} [38%] (34%) {25%} [26%] {+4%}
  • Ron Paul 43% (53%) {54%} [61%] (52%) {37%} [53%] (42%) {55%} [47%] / 51% (40%) {38%} [31%] (38%) {46%} [29%] (29%) {17%} [23%] {-8%}
  • Newt Gingrich 40% (37%) {46%} [52%] (62%) {56%} [42%] (39%) {47%} [53%] / 54% (54%) {47%} [40%] (31%) {32%} [44%] (41%) {26%} [27%] {-14%}
  • Jon Huntsman 27% (31%) {32%} [28%] (30%) {18%} [13%] (7%) {5%} / 53% (43%) {38%} [43%] (45%) {28%} [40%] (23%) {8%} {-26%
Which of the Republican candidates do you think has the best chance of defeating Barack Obama?
  • Mitt Romney 27% (25%) {25%} [21%] (23%)
  • Newt Gingrich 14% (13%) {17%} [30%] (33%)
  • Ron Paul 14% (14%) {16%} [14%] (9%)
  • Rick Santorum 9% (5%) {3%} [3%] (2%)
  • Michele Bachmann 5% (8%) {7%} [5%] (7%)
  • Rick Perry 5% (8%) {6%} [7%] (7%)
  • Jon Huntsman 2% (4%) {3%} [2%] (3%)
  • Buddy Roemer 1% (1%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 22% (23%) {20%} [16%] (14%)
Who do you think is going to win the Iowa caucuses?
  • Mitt Romney 24% (15%) {19%}
  • Ron Paul 20% (29%) {20%}
  • Rick Santorum 9% (5%) {2%} 
  • Newt Gingrich 8% (8%) {20%}
  • Michele Bachmann 4% (7%) {6%}
  • Rick Perry 4% (4%) {3%}
  • Jon Huntsman 1% (1%) {2%}
  • Buddy Roemer 1% (1%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 28% (30%) {27%}
Who do you think has run the strongest campaign in Iowa?
  • Ron Paul 22% (26%) {22%}
  • Rick Santorum 13% (10%) {8%}
  • Michele Bachmann 13% (18%) {19%}
  • Mitt Romney 8% (5%) {5%}
  • Rick Perry 7% (7%) {7%}
  • Newt Gingrich 5% (5%) {8%}
  • Jon Huntsman 1% (1%) {1%}
  • Buddy Roemer 1% (1%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 29% (28%) {28%}
Do you think that Rick Santorum has strong principles, or not?
  • He does 59%
  • He does not 16%
    Do you think that Ron Paul has strong principles, or not?
    • He does 60% (68%) {73%}
    • He does not 19% (14%) {10%}
    Do you think that Mitt Romney has strong principles, or not?
    • He does 41% (42%) {50%}
    • He does not 37% (37%) {31%}
    Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?
    • Yes 25% (26%) {26%} [27%] (32%) {29%} [33%] (31%) {28%}
    • No 65% (64%) {61%} [61%] (58%) {52%} [51%] (48%) {48%}
    What is more important to you when deciding who to vote for: a candidate’s ability to beat Barack Obama in the general election, or their positions on the issues?
    • A candidate's ability to beat Obama 31% (30%) {32%} [32%] (34%)
    • Their issue positions 54% (58%) {56%} [56%] (57%)
    Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
    • Are 49% (47%)
    • Are not 51% ( 53%)
    Do you regularly watch Fox News, or not?
    • Do 51% (52%)
    • Do not 49% (48%)
    When did you decide who to vote for: in the last week, the last month, or earlier?
    • In the last week 29%
    • In the last month 29%
    • Earlier 34%
    Decided in the Last Week
    • Rick Santorum 29%
    • Mitt Romney 17%
    • Newt Gingrich 13%
    • Ron Paul 13%
    • Rick Perry 10%
    • Michele Bachmann 8%
    • Jon Huntsman 4%
    • Buddy Roemer 3%
    Decided in the Last Month
    • Rick Santorum 20%
    • Mitt Romney 19%
    • Ron Paul 19%
    • Newt Gingrich 15%
    • Rick Perry 14%
    • Michele Bachmann 7%
    • Jon Huntsman 3%
    • Buddy Roemer 2%
    Decided Earlier
    • Ron Paul 28%
    • Mitt Romney 24%
    • Newt Gingrich 14%
    • Michele Bachmann 9%
    • Rick Santorum 8%
    • Rick Perry 8%
    • Jon Huntsman 5%
    • Buddy Roemer 2%
    Survey of 1,340 likely Iowa Republican caucus voters was conducted December 31, 2011 - January 1, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points.  Party ID: 76% (76%) {75%} [78%] (80%) Republican; 18% (16%) {19%} [17%] (14%) Independent/Other; 6% (8%) {5%} [4%] (6%) Democrat.  Political ideology: 38% (37%) {36%} [42%] (40%) {36%} [38%] (41%) {44%} Very conservative; 33% (33%) {36%} [35%] (37%) {36%} [34%] (37%) {33%} Somewhat conservative; 18% (21%) {19%} [17%] (15%) {21%} [21%] (14%) {17%} Moderate; 6% (4%) {3%} [4%] (3%) {3%} [3%] (2%) {2%} Very liberal; 5% (5%) {6%} [3%] (5%) {4%} [3%] (6%) {4%} Somewhat liberal.  Results from the poll conducted December 26-27, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 16-18, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 11-13, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 3-5, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 7-10, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 19-21, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 27-30, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 15-17, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 7-9, 2011 are in square brackets.

    Sunday, January 01, 2012

    Poll Watch: Suffolk University/7NEWS New Hampshire 2012 Republican Primary Survey

    Suffolk University/7NEWS New Hampshire 2012 GOP Primary Poll
    • Mitt Romney 41% [38%] (41%) {41%} [36%] (35%)
    • Ron Paul 15% [8%] (14%) {14%} [8%] (8%)
    • Newt Gingrich 11% [20%] (14%) {4%} [2%] (3%)
    • Jon Huntsman 9% [13%] (9%) {10%} [4%] (0%)
    • Rick Santorum 3% [2%] (3%) {1%} [1%] (2%)
    • Michele Bachmann 3% [3%] (1%) {5%} [11%] (3%)
    • Buddy Roemer 1% [2%] (1%) {1%} [0%] (0%)
    • Rick Perry 2% [1%] (2%) {8%} [2%]
    • Fred Karger 0% [0%] (1%) {0%} [0%] (0%)
    • Undecided 16% [11%] (9%) {11%} [21%] (13%)
    How likely are you to change your mind about your choice before the January Primary - would you say it's very likely you'll change your mind, somewhat likely you'll change your mind, or unlikely you'll change your mind?
    • Very likely I'll change my mind 7% [7%] (9%)
    • Somewhat likely I'll change my mind 33% [44%] (43%)
    • Unlikely I'll change my mind 50% [45%]  (42%)
      Survey of 500 likely New Hampshire GOP primary voters was conducted December 30-31, 2011. Party ID: 58% Republican; 38% Independent; 1% Other.  Ideology: 49% Conservative; 34% Moderate; Liberal 14%.  Results from the poll conducted December 10-13, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 16-20, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 18-20, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 25-27, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 30 - May 2, 2011 are in parentheses.

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      This Week: Interview with Michele Bachmann

      This Week: Interview with Ron Paul

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      Meet the Press Decision 2012 Roundtable in Iowa

      Rick Santorum on Meet the Press