Poll Watch: American Research Group Iowa 2012 Republican Caucus Survey

ARG Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Poll

• Mitt Romney 22% (22%) {20%} [17%] (20%) {21%} [18%] (17%)
• Ron Paul 17% (16%) {21%} [17%] (16%) {12%} [14%] (3%)  
• Rick Santorum 16% (11%) {4%} [7%] (6%) {2%} [5%] (2%)
• Newt Gingrich 15% (17%) {19%} [22%] (27%) {8%} [8%] (12%) 
• Rick Perry 9% (9%) {9%} [13%] (5%) {14%} [2%] 
• Michele Bachmann 8% (8%) {8%} [7%] (6%) {15%} [21%] (9%)
• Jon Huntsman 4% (6%) {6%} [5%] (3%) {1%} [3%] (0%)
• Buddy Roemer 1% (1%) {1%} [0%] (0%) {1%} [0%] (0%)
• Other 1% (1%) {0%} [1%] (0%) {1%} [2%]
• Undecided 7% (9%) {12%} [12%] (11%) {15%} [10%] (8%)

Among Likely GOP Caucus-Goers Saying They Will Definitely Participate in the Caucus (76%)

• Mitt Romney 21% (23%) {20%}
• Newt Gingrich 16% (19%) {22%}
  
• Rick Santorum 16% (10%) {5%} 
• Ron Paul 16% (16%) {17%}
• Michele Bachmann 9% (8%) {8%}
• Rick Perry 9% (8%) {10%}
• Jon Huntsman 5% (5%) {5%}
• Buddy Roemer 1% (1%) {1%}
• Other 1% (1%) {0%}
• Undecided 6% (9%) {12%}

Among Republicans (82%)

• Mitt Romney 24% (23%) {21%}
• Rick Santorum 17% (12%) {5%} 
• Newt Gingrich 16% (19%) {20%}
• Ron Paul 14% (12%) {17%}
• Michele Bachmann 9% (9%) {10%}
• Rick Perry 8% (8%) {9%}
• Jon Huntsman 3% (6%) {5%}
• Buddy Roemer 1% (1%) {1%}
• Other 1% (1%) {0%}
• Undecided 7% (9%) {12%}

Among Independents (18%)

• Ron Paul 32% (30%) {33%}
• Newt Gingrich 13% (12%) {17%}
• Mitt Romney 13% (22%) {20%}
• Rick Perry 13% (11%) {9%}
• Rick Santorum 10% (6%) {0%}
• Jon Huntsman 10% (6%) {8%} 
• Michele Bachmann 4% (6%) {1%}
• Buddy Roemer 0% (0%) {1%} 
• Other 0% (1%) {0%}
• Undecided 5% (9%) {13%}

Among Tea Party Supporters (40%)

• Mitt Romney 24% (26%) {16%}
• Newt Gingrich 21% (25%) {29%}
• Rick Santorum 16% (7%) {6%} 
• Ron Paul 11% (16%) {17%}
• Rick Perry 10% (9%) {11%}
• Michele Bachmann 9% (10%) {11%} 
• Jon Huntsman 1% (0%) {0%}
• Buddy Roemer 0% (0%) {0%}
• Other 0% (0%) {0%}
• Undecided 8% (7%) {10%}

Among Non-Tea Party Republican Caucus-Goers (60%)

• Mitt Romney 21% (20%) {22%}
• Ron Paul 21% (16%) {22%}
• Rick Santorum 16% (13%) {3%} 
• Newt Gingrich 12% (14%) {15%}
• Michele Bachmann 8% (7%) {7%}
• Rick Perry 8% (8%) {8%}
• Jon Huntsman 6% (9%) {8%}
• Buddy Roemer 1% (1%) {2%}
• Other 1% (2%) {0%}
• Undecided 6% (10%) {13%}

Survey 600 of likely Republican caucus-goers (491 Republicans, 98 Independents, and 10 Democrats) was conducted December 29, 2011 - January 1, 2012. The margin of error is ± 4 percentage points. Party ID: 82% (79%) {78%} Republican; 18% (21%) {22%} Independent. Preference by Likely to Vote: Definite 76% (81%) {83%}; Probably 24% (19%) {17%}.  Preference by Tea Party support: Supporter 40% (35%) {32%}; Not/Undecided 60% (65%) {42%}.   Results from the poll conducted December 26-28, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 19-22, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 8-11, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 17-23, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 22-27, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 5-11, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 12-19, 2011 are in parentheses.