Poll Watch: Rasmussen 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

Rasmussen 2012 GOP Nomination Poll

• Newt Gingrich 35% {27%} [16%] (38%) {14%} [10%] (9%) {5%} [6%] (9%) {9%} [11%] (13%)
• Mitt Romney 28% {30%} [29%] (17%) {23%} [29%] (24%) {18%} [22%] (33%) {17%} [24%] (20%) 
• Rick Santorum 16% {15%} [21%] (4%) {1%} [2%] (3%) {1%}  
• Ron Paul 10% {13%} [12%] (8%) {7%} [5%] (6%) {9%} [10%] (7%) {8%} [4%] (5%)

Very Conservative

• Newt Gingrich 49% {35%}
• Rick Santorum 21% {18%}
  
• Mitt Romney 16% {25%}
  
• Ron Paul 7%

Somewhat Conservative

• Mitt Romney 33% {33%}
• Newt Gingrich 32% {23%}
  
• Rick Santorum 17%
  
• Ron Paul 9%

Among Tea Party Voters

• Newt Gingrich 52% {39%}
• Rick Santorum 20% {20%}
  
• Mitt Romney 16% {21%}
  
• Ron Paul 8%

Note: Romney leads Gingrich 36% to 26% among those who are not members of the grassroots movement.

Among Evangelical Christians

• Newt Gingrich 43% {36%}
• Rick Santorum 19% {16%}
  
• Mitt Romney 17% {19%}
  

Note: Protestants and Catholics are evenly divided between Romney and Gingrich, while voters of all other faiths give the edge to Romney.

Are you certain you will vote for that candidate or is it possible that something come up that causes you to change your mind?

• Certain 41% {41%}
• Could change mind 50% {51%}
• No preference yet 9% {7%}

Note: Santorum’s supporters are the most likely to say they could still change their minds at some point.

Which Republican presidential candidate would be the strongest opponent against Barack Obama in the general election?

• Newt Gingrich 39% {29%}
  
• Mitt Romney 37% {43%}

Note: Sixty-two percent (62%) consider Paul the weakest general election opponent to Obama.

Regardless of who you want to win, who do you think will win the Republican presidential nomination?

• Mitt Romney 51% {70%}
• Newt Gingrich 32% {13%}

Which Republican candidate would do the best job managing the economy?

• Mitt Romney 35% {34%}
• Newt Gingrich 32% {29%}

Which Republican candidate would do the best job on the issue of national security and defense?

• Newt Gingrich 51% {43%}
  
• Mitt Romney 18% {18%}

Which Republican candidate would do the best job on social issues?

• Newt Gingrich 28%
• Rick Santorum 25%
  
• Mitt Romney 23%

In this primary election, is your vote primarily a vote for your favorite candidate or primarily a vote against one of the other candidates?

• Vote for favorite candidate 71%
• Vote against one of the other candidates 20%

Suppose your favorite candidate does not win the nomination. When the general election is held, would you be most likely to vote for the Republican candidate, President Barack Obama, or a third party candidate?

• Republican candidate 79% {76%}
• President Barack Obama 8% {10%}
• Third party candidate 6% {8%}

Note: Paul’s campaign announced he has ruled out a third-party run, but his supporters remain by far the most willing to vote third party.

Survey of 1,000 likely GOP primary voters was conducted January 23, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted January 17, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 4, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 30, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 2, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 12, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 19, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 15, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 28, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 14, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 26, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 18, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 1, 2010 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Romney is viewed favorably by 68% of GOP primary voters nationwide, while Gingrich is seen that way by 64%. Sixty-four percent (64%) also have a favorable opinion of Santorum, while just 35% view Paul that way.