Poll Watch: PPP (D) Florida 2012 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) Florida 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Newt Gingrich 38% {26%} [47%] (10%) {10%} [30%]  
• Mitt Romney 33% {41%} [17%] (30%) {29%} [28%]
• Rick Santorum 13% {11%} [1%] (2%)
• Ron Paul 10% {10%} [5%] (8%) {8%} [9%]
• Not sure 6% {7%} [7%] (9%) {9%} [11%]

Have you already voted, either at an early voting site or with an absentee ballot?

• Yes 16%
• No 84%

Already Voted

• Mitt Romney 43%
  
• Newt Gingrich 40%
• Ron Paul 9%
• Rick Santorum 7%
  
• Someone else/Not sure 1%

Did Not Vote Yet

• Newt Gingrich 38%
• Mitt Romney 31%
• Rick Santorum 14%
• Ron Paul 10%
• Someone else/Not sure 7%

Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?

• Strongly committed to that candidate 71% {64%} [44%]
• Might end up supporting someone else 29% {36%} [56%]

Strongly Committed to That Candidate

• Newt Gingrich 45%
• Mitt Romney 36%
• Rick Santorum 10%
• Ron Paul 10%

Might End Up Supporting Someone Else

• Mitt Romney 32%
• Newt Gingrich 30%
• Rick Santorum 23%
• Ron Paul 14%

Second Choice

• Newt Gingrich 20% {19%} [20%]
• Mitt Romney 20% {19%} [21%]
• Rick Santorum 19% {18%} [3%]
• Ron Paul 10% {7%} [3%]
• Not sure 30% {28%} [25%]

If the candidates for President were just Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, and Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

• Newt Gingrich 43%
• Mitt Romney 36%
• Paul 12%
• Not Sure 9%

Which of the Republican candidates do you think has the best chance of defeating Barack Obama?

• Newt Gingrich 37%
• Mitt Romney 37%
• Rick Santorum 6%
• Ron Paul 5%
• Someone else/Not sure 14%

Among Men

• Newt Gingrich 41%
• Mitt Romney 33%
• Rick Santorum 7%
• Ron Paul 7%
• Someone else/Not sure 11%

Among Women

• Mitt Romney 41%
• Newt Gingrich 33%
• Rick Santorum 5%
• Ron Paul 3%
• Someone else/Not sure 18%

Who do you think will win the Republican nomination for President?

• Mitt Romney 42% {52%}
• Newt Gingrich 34% {16%}
• Ron Paul 5% {4%}
• Rick Santorum 4% {5%}
• Not Sure 15% {20%}

Do you think Newt Gingrich is too liberal, too conservative, about right, or are you not sure?

• Too liberal 14%
• Too conservative 9%
• About right 52%

Do you think Mitt Romney is too liberal, too conservative, about right, or are you not sure?

• Too liberal 25%
• Too conservative 5%
• About right 42%

If Newt Gingrich were to win the nomination, would you enthusiastically support him, support him with reservations, or not support him?

• Would enthusiastically support Gingrich 50%
• Would support him with reservations 23%
• Would not support him 15%

Among Men

• Would enthusiastically support Gingrich 55%
• Would support him with reservations 19%
• Would not support him 13%

Among Women

• Would enthusiastically support Gingrich 45%
• Would support him with reservations 26%
• Would not support him 16%

If Mitt Romney were to win the nomination, would you enthusiastically support him, support him with reservations, or not support him?

• Would enthusiastically support Romney 46%
• Would support him with reservations 32%
• Would not support him 9%

Among Men

• Would enthusiastically support Romney 46%
• Would support him with reservations 32%
• Would not support him 10%

Among Women

• Would enthusiastically support Romney 47%
• Would support him with reservations 32%
• Would not support him 8%

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 25% {34%} [32%]
• No 64% {57%} [58%]

Among Tea Party Members

• Newt Gingrich 46%
• Rick Santorum 21%
• Mitt Romney 20%
• Ron Paul 8%
• Someone else/Not sure 5%

Among Non-Tea Party Republicans

• Mitt Romney 39%
• Newt Gingrich 36%
• Ron Paul 11%
• Rick Santorum 9%
• Someone else/Not sure 6%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rick Santorum 60% {54%} / 26% {26%} {+34%} 
• Mitt Romney 61% {68%} [51%] (65%) {56%} [61%] (61%) / 30% {24%} [36%] (22%) {30%} [24%] (22%) {+31%}
• Newt Gingrich 57% {51%} [72%] (57%) {46%} [58%] (59%) / 34% {36%} [21%] (29%) {37%} [26%] (24%) {+23%}
• Ron Paul 37% {30%} [25%] (33%) {44%} [53%] / 50% {57%} [57%] (45%) {31%} [16%] {-13%}

Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?

• Are 44% {45%}
• Are not 56% {55%}

Among Evangelical Christians

• Newt Gingrich 42%
• Mitt Romney 23%
• Rick Santorum 18%
• Ron Paul 9%
• Someone else/Not sure 8%

Among Non-Evangelicals

• Mitt Romney 40%
• Newt Gingrich 35%
• Ron Paul 11%
• Rick Santorum 9%
• Someone else/Not sure 5%

Survey of 921 likely Florida Republican primary voters was conducted January 22-23, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points.  Political ideology: 40% {38%} [35%] (33%) {40%} [40%] Very conservative; 36% {43%} [37%] (43%) {35%} [38%] Somewhat conservative; 18% {16%} [23%] (19%) {21%} [17%] Moderate; 3% {2%} [5%] (4%) {4%} [3%] Somewhat liberal; 2% {1%} [1%] (1%) {1%} [1%] Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted January 14-16, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 28-30, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 22-25, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 16-19, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 24-27, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 17-20, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 30-31, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 16-18, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 5-8, 2010 are in parentheses.