Poll Watch: PPP (D) Iowa 2012 Republican Caucus Survey

PPP (D) Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Poll

• Ron Paul 20% (24%) {23%} [21%] (18%) {10%} [16%] (11%) {16%}
• Mitt Romney 19% (20%) {20%} [16%] (16%) {22%} [19%] (26%) {28%}
• Rick Santorum 18% (10%) {10%} [8%] (6%) {5%} [5%]
• Newt Gingrich 14% (13%) {14%} [22%] (27%) {8%} [5%] (15%) {19%}
• Rick Perry 10% (10%) {10%} [9%] (9%) {9%} [22%]
• Michele Bachmann 8% (11%) {10%} [11%] (13%) {8%} [18%] (14%) {15%}
• Jon Huntsman 4% (4%) {4%} [5%] (4%) {1%} [3%] (1%)
• Buddy Roemer 2% (2%)
• Someone else/Not sure 4% (5%) {7%} [7%] (7%) {5%} [5%] (8%) {12%}

Among Republicans 

• Mitt Romney 21% (22%) {22%} [15%] (16%) 
• Rick Santorum 19% (11%) {10%} [8%] (7%) 
• Newt Gingrich 17% (13%) {17%} [25%] (29%) 
• Ron Paul 17% (20%) {19%} [17%] (15%)
• Rick Perry 11% (12%) {11%} [10%] (10%)
• Michele Bachmann 8% (10%) {10%} [12%] (13%)
• Jon Huntsman 2% (4%) {2%} [3%] (3%)
• Buddy Roemer 1% (1%)
• Someone else/Not sure 4% (7%) {7%} [8%] (6%)

Among Independents

• Ron Paul 33% (46%) {34%} [35%] (34%) 
• Rick Santorum 14% (9%) {9%} [6%] (1%)
• Mitt Romney 14% (11%) {13%} [15%] (11%)  
• Jon Huntsman 10% (5%) {11%} [13%] (7%)
• Newt Gingrich 7% (8%) {6%} [12%] (21%)  
• Rick Perry 6% (4%) {7%} [6%] (7%)
• Buddy Roemer 5% (3%)
• Michele Bachmann 5% (13%) {10%} [8%] (7%)  
• Someone else/Not sure 6% (2%) {6%} [3%] (9%)

Regularly Watch Fox News

• Mitt Romney 24% (27%)
• Newt Gingrich 21% (16%)
• Rick Santorum 18% (11%)
• Ron Paul 11% (12%)
• Rick Perry 10% (10%)
• Michele Bachmann 9% (15%)
• Jon Huntsman 2% (2%)
• Buddy Roemer 1% (2%)
• Someone else/Not sure 4% (6%)

Do NOT Regularly Watch Fox News

• Ron Paul 30% (38%) 
• Rick Santorum 18% (10%)
• Mitt Romney 15% (13%)
• Rick Perry 9% (9%) 
• Newt Gingrich 8% (9%)
• Michele Bachmann 7% (7%)
• Jon Huntsman 6% (6%)
• Buddy Roemer 3% (2%)
• Someone else/Not sure 4% (5%)

Evangelicals

• Rick Santorum 24% (15%)
• Newt Gingrich 16% (14%)
• Mitt Romney 15% (16%) 
• Ron Paul 15% (21%) 
• Rick Perry 12% (12%)
• Michele Bachmann 11% (15%)  
• Buddy Roemer 2% (0%)
• Jon Huntsman 1% (1%)
• Someone else/Not sure 4% (6%)

Non-Evangelicals

• Ron Paul 25% (27%)
• Mitt Romney 24% (24%)
• Newt Gingrich 13% (11%)
• Rick Santorum 12% (7%)
• Rick Perry 8% (8%)
• Jon Huntsman 7% (7%)
• Michele Bachmann 5% (8%)
• Buddy Roemer 3% (4%)
• Someone else/Not sure 4% (5%)

Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?

• Strongly committed to that candidate 76% (72%) {63%} [60%] (55%)
• Might end up supporting someone else 24% (28%) {37%} [40%] (45%)

Among Those Strongly Committed to That Candidate

• Ron Paul 24% (28%) {29%} [29%] (22%)
  
• Mitt Romney 21% (21%) {23%} [18%] (20%)
• Rick Santorum 18% (10%) {9%} [5%] (5%)
• Newt Gingrich 14% (12%) {14%} [21%] (25%)
• Rick Perry 9% (9%) {9%} [9%] (7%)
• Michele Bachmann 8% (14%) {9%} [11%] (15%)
• Jon Huntsman 4% (5%) {4%} [4%] (5%)
• Buddy Roemer 2% (1%)

Among Those Who Might End Up Supporting Someone Else

• Rick Santorum 20% (14%) {12%} [13%] (7%)
• Newt Gingrich 19% (17%) {18%} [28%] (32%)
• Mitt Romney 18% (22%) {19%} [14%] (13%)
  
• Rick Perry 14% (13%) {14%} [12%] (14%)
• Ron Paul 13% (21%) {18%} [13%] (16%)
• Michele Bachmann 8% (7%) {13%} [13%] (14%)
  
• Jon Huntsman 5% (3%) {4%} [6%] (4%)
• Buddy Roemer 2% (4%) 

Second Choice 

• Rick Perry 15% (11%) {14%} [10%] (11%) {12%}
• Rick Santorum 14% (14%) {9%} [8%] (9%) {5%}
• Michele Bachmann 13% (12%) {15%} [11%] (10%) {11%}
• Newt Gingrich 11% (12%) {13%} [14%] (17%) {17%}
• Mitt Romney 11% (10%) {12%} [13%] (13%) {11%}
• Ron Paul 8% (9%) {9%} [12%] (10%) {9%}
• Jon Huntsman 5% (7%) {7%} [7%] (5%) {3%}
• Buddy Roemer 2% (1%)
• Someone else/Not sure 22% (25%) {18%} [25%] (22%) {15%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rick Santorum 60% (56%) {52%} [49%] (51%) {46%} [44%] (29%) {27%} [28%] / 30% (29%) {32%} [33%] (28%) {17%} [22%] (18%) {11%} [9%] {+30%}
• Michele Bachmann 52% (53%) {52%} [55%] (56%) {44%} [47%] (53%) {49%} / 37% (37%) {34%} [37%] (35%) {38%} [35%] (16%) {13%} {+15%}
• Rick Perry 52% (48%) {48%} [43%] (44%) {38%} [56%] (21%) / 39% (40%) {40%} [47%] (46%) {41%} [24%] (16%) {+13%}
• Mitt Romney 48% (44%) {49%} [48%] (49%) {51%} [45%] (51%) {55%} [57%] / 44% (47%) {40%} [44%] (45%) {36%} [38%] (34%) {25%} [26%] {+4%}
• Ron Paul 43% (53%) {54%} [61%] (52%) {37%} [53%] (42%) {55%} [47%] / 51% (40%) {38%} [31%] (38%) {46%} [29%] (29%) {17%} [23%] {-8%}
• Newt Gingrich 40% (37%) {46%} [52%] (62%) {56%} [42%] (39%) {47%} [53%] / 54% (54%) {47%} [40%] (31%) {32%} [44%] (41%) {26%} [27%] {-14%}
• Jon Huntsman 27% (31%) {32%} [28%] (30%) {18%} [13%] (7%) {5%} / 53% (43%) {38%} [43%] (45%) {28%} [40%] (23%) {8%} {-26%} 

Which of the Republican candidates do you think has the best chance of defeating Barack Obama?

• Mitt Romney 27% (25%) {25%} [21%] (23%)
• Newt Gingrich 14% (13%) {17%} [30%] (33%)
• Ron Paul 14% (14%) {16%} [14%] (9%)
• Rick Santorum 9% (5%) {3%} [3%] (2%)
• Michele Bachmann 5% (8%) {7%} [5%] (7%)
• Rick Perry 5% (8%) {6%} [7%] (7%)
• Jon Huntsman 2% (4%) {3%} [2%] (3%)
• Buddy Roemer 1% (1%)
• Someone else/Not sure 22% (23%) {20%} [16%] (14%)

Who do you think is going to win the Iowa caucuses?

• Mitt Romney 24% (15%) {19%}
• Ron Paul 20% (29%) {20%}
• Rick Santorum 9% (5%) {2%} 
• Newt Gingrich 8% (8%) {20%}
• Michele Bachmann 4% (7%) {6%}
• Rick Perry 4% (4%) {3%}
• Jon Huntsman 1% (1%) {2%}
• Buddy Roemer 1% (1%)
• Someone else/Not sure 28% (30%) {27%}

Who do you think has run the strongest campaign in Iowa?

• Ron Paul 22% (26%) {22%}
• Rick Santorum 13% (10%) {8%}
• Michele Bachmann 13% (18%) {19%}
• Mitt Romney 8% (5%) {5%}
• Rick Perry 7% (7%) {7%}
• Newt Gingrich 5% (5%) {8%}
• Jon Huntsman 1% (1%) {1%}
• Buddy Roemer 1% (1%)
• Someone else/Not sure 29% (28%) {28%}

Do you think that Rick Santorum has strong principles, or not?

• He does 59%
• He does not 16%

Do you think that Ron Paul has strong principles, or not?

• He does 60% (68%) {73%}
• He does not 19% (14%) {10%}

Do you think that Mitt Romney has strong principles, or not?

• He does 41% (42%) {50%}
• He does not 37% (37%) {31%}

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 25% (26%) {26%} [27%] (32%) {29%} [33%] (31%) {28%}
• No 65% (64%) {61%} [61%] (58%) {52%} [51%] (48%) {48%}

What is more important to you when deciding who to vote for: a candidate’s ability to beat Barack Obama in the general election, or their positions on the issues?

• A candidate's ability to beat Obama 31% (30%) {32%} [32%] (34%)
• Their issue positions 54% (58%) {56%} [56%] (57%)

Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?

• Are 49% (47%)
• Are not 51% ( 53%)

Do you regularly watch Fox News, or not?

• Do 51% (52%)
• Do not 49% (48%)

When did you decide who to vote for: in the last week, the last month, or earlier?

• In the last week 29%
• In the last month 29%
• Earlier 34%

Decided in the Last Week

• Rick Santorum 29%
• Mitt Romney 17%
• Newt Gingrich 13%
• Ron Paul 13%
• Rick Perry 10%
• Michele Bachmann 8%
• Jon Huntsman 4%
• Buddy Roemer 3%

Decided in the Last Month

• Rick Santorum 20%
• Mitt Romney 19%
• Ron Paul 19%
• Newt Gingrich 15%
• Rick Perry 14%
• Michele Bachmann 7%
• Jon Huntsman 3%
• Buddy Roemer 2%

Decided Earlier

• Ron Paul 28%
• Mitt Romney 24%
• Newt Gingrich 14%
• Michele Bachmann 9%
• Rick Santorum 8%
• Rick Perry 8%
• Jon Huntsman 5%
• Buddy Roemer 2%

Survey of 1,340 likely Iowa Republican caucus voters was conducted December 31, 2011 - January 1, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points.  Party ID: 76% (76%) {75%} [78%] (80%) Republican; 18% (16%) {19%} [17%] (14%) Independent/Other; 6% (8%) {5%} [4%] (6%) Democrat.  Political ideology: 38% (37%) {36%} [42%] (40%) {36%} [38%] (41%) {44%} Very conservative; 33% (33%) {36%} [35%] (37%) {36%} [34%] (37%) {33%} Somewhat conservative; 18% (21%) {19%} [17%] (15%) {21%} [21%] (14%) {17%} Moderate; 6% (4%) {3%} [4%] (3%) {3%} [3%] (2%) {2%} Very liberal; 5% (5%) {6%} [3%] (5%) {4%} [3%] (6%) {4%} Somewhat liberal.  Results from the poll conducted December 26-27, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 16-18, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 11-13, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 3-5, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 7-10, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 19-21, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 27-30, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 15-17, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 7-9, 2011 are in square brackets.