Poll Watch: Rasmussen 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

Rasmussen 2012 GOP Nomination Poll

• Mitt Romney 29% (17%) {23%} [29%] (24%) {18%} [22%] (33%) {17%} [24%] (20%) 
• Rick Santorum 21% (4%) {1%} [2%] (3%) {1%}  
• Newt Gingrich 16% (38%) {14%} [10%] (9%) {5%} [6%] (9%) {9%} [11%] (13%)
• Ron Paul 12% (8%) {7%} [5%] (6%) {9%} [10%] (7%) {8%} [4%] (5%)
• Rick Perry 4% (4%) {8%} [9%] (28%) {29%} [18%]
• Jon Huntsman 4% (3%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {1%} [2%] (2%)

Survey of 1,000 likely GOP primary voters was conducted January 4, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted November 30, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 2, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 12, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 19, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 15, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 28, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 14, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 26, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 18, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 1, 2010 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

It’s important to note that just 34% of likely GOP primary voters say they are certain of their vote at this time. Fifty-five percent (55%) say they still could change their mind, and 11% don’t have an initial preference yet. Those certain of their vote include 44% of Paul’s supporters, 43% of those who back Romney and 40% of Gingrich’s voters. Just 30% of those who support Santorum are certain of their vote at this time.

Evangelical Christian support was considered key to Santorum’s strong showing in Iowa, and the former Pennsylvania senator leads among Republican voters who are Evangelical Christians with 28% support. Romney and Gingrich are next with 21% and 18% support respectively among these voters.

Romney is the top voter-getter among other Protestants, Catholics and Republicans of other faiths, with roughly one-third of the vote in each group.

Among Republicans who consider themselves members of the Tea Party, Santorum is on top with 29% support, followed by Romney and Gingrich who earn 24% each. Romney is far ahead among non-Tea Party Republicans with 34% of the vote.

Romney is now viewed favorably by 68% of Republican voters, closely followed by Santorum who is seen that way by 63%. Fifty-two percent (52%) have a favorable opinion of Gingrich. The other candidates have higher unfavorables than favorables among GOP voters – Perry (49%), Huntsman (47%) and Paul (59%). One-in-four voters (25%) still say they don’t know enough about Huntsman to even voice an opinion of him.