Poll Watch: PPP (D) New Hampshire 2012 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) New Hampshire 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 36% {35%} [28%] (40%)
• Ron Paul 21% {19%} [9%] (18%)
• Newt Gingrich 13% {17%} [4%] (17%)
• Jon Huntsman 12% {13%} [7%]
• Michele Bachmann 7% {5%} [21%] (8%)
• Buddy Roemer 3%
• Rick Perry 3% {2%} [9%]
• Rick Santorum 3% {3%} 
• Someone else/Undecided 2% {4%} [9%] (10%)

Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?

• Strongly committed to that candidate 71% {65%}
• Might end up supporting someone else 29% {35%}

Second Choice

• Mitt Romney 18% {16%}
• Newt Gingrich 15% {17%}
• Jon Huntsman 13% {10%}
• Rick Santorum 8% {5%} 
• Ron Paul 8% {13%}
• Michele Bachmann 7% {9%}
• Rick Perry 4% {4%}
• Buddy Roemer 2%
• Someone else/Undecided {22%}

If the candidates at the time of the New Hampshire primary were just Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, and Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

• Mitt Romney 37% {37%}
• Ron Paul 23% {21%}
• Newt Gingrich 16% {20%}
• Jon Huntsman 16% {15%}
• Not sure 8% {7%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mitt Romney 63% {63%} [60%] (68%) / 32% {30%} [29%] (19%) {+31%}
• Jon Huntsman 55% {47%} [25%] (8%) / 27% {34%} [26%] (13%) {+28%}
• Ron Paul 47% {53%} [53%] (53%) / 46% {38%} [30%] (21%) {+1%}
• Rick Santorum 39% {37%} [40%] (30%) / 40% {44%} [25%] (17%) {-1%} 
• Michele Bachmann 38% {42%} [64%] (38%) / 48% {46%} [24%] (18%) {-10%}
• Newt Gingrich 42% {42%} [33%] (45%) / 53% {51%} [51%] (36%) {-11%}
• Rick Perry 26% {24%} [33%] / 62% {63%} [13%] {-36%}

What is more important to you when deciding who to vote for: a candidate’s ability to beat Barack Obama in the general election, or their positions on the issues?

• A candidate's ability to beat Obama 36% {35%}
• Their issue positions 55% {51%}

Do you think that Ron Paul has strong principles, or not?

• He does 72% {69%}
• He does not 12% {8%}

Do you think that Mitt Romney has strong principles, or not?

• He does 52% {51%}
• He does not 30% {26%}

Do you think that Jon Huntsman has strong principles, or not?

• He does 51% {48%}
• He does not 18% {15%}

Do you think that Newt Gingrich has strong principles, or not?

• He does 31% {34%}
• He does not 49% {41%}

Which of the Republican candidates do you think has the best chance of defeating Barack Obama?

• Mitt Romney 44% {38%}
• Newt Gingrich 11% {14%}
• Ron Paul 10% {9%}
• Jon Huntsman 8% {9%}
• Michele Bachmann 6% {3%}
• Buddy Roemer 1%
• Rick Perry 1% {1%}
• Rick Santorum 1% {1%}
• Someone else/Not sure 18% {24%}

Who do you think is going to win the New Hampshire primary?

• Mitt Romney 47% {41%}
• Ron Paul 13% {9%}
• Newt Gingrich 6% {12%}
• Jon Huntsman 5% {4%}
• Michele Bachmann 3% {2%}
• Buddy Roemer 2%
• Rick Perry 1% {0%}
• Rick Santorum 1% {0%}
• Someone else/Not sure 23% {31%}

Who do you think has run the strongest campaign in New Hampshire?

• Mitt Romney 40% {35%}
• Ron Paul 15% {12%}
• Jon Huntsman 10% {10%}
• Newt Gingrich 4% {5%}
• Michele Bachmann 3% {2%}
• Buddy Roemer 2%
• Rick Perry 1% {0%}
• Rick Santorum 0% {1%}
• Someone else/Not sure 26% {34%}

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 24% {24%} [33%] (30%)
• No 66% {68%} [54%] (51%)

Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?

• Are 23%
• Are not 77%

Do you regularly watch Fox News, or not?

• Do 51%
• Do not 49%

Regularly Watch Fox News

• Mitt Romney 45%
• Newt Gingrich 18%
• Ron Paul 15%
• Michele Bachmann 8%
• Jon Huntsman 6%
• Rick Santorum 4%
• Rick Perry 3%
• Buddy Roemer 0% 
• Someone else/Undecided 1%

Do NOT Regularly Watch Fox News

• Mitt Romney 28%
• Ron Paul 27%
• Jon Huntsman 18% 
• Newt Gingrich 8%
  
• Michele Bachmann 6%
• Buddy Roemer 5%  
• Rick Santorum 2%
  
• Rick Perry 2%
• Someone else/Undecided 4%

Survey of 830 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters was conducted December 27-28, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 61% {61%} [65%] (67%) Republican; 34% {34%} [33%] (32%) Independent/Other; 4% {5%} [2%] (2%) Democrat.  Political ideology: 39% {36%} [36%] (43%) Somewhat conservative; 27% {26%} [21%] (22%) Moderate; 25% {27%} [37%] (31%) Very conservative; 5% {4%} [2%] (1%) Very liberal; 4% {7%} [4%] (3%) Somewhat liberal.  Results from the poll conducted December 16-18, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 30 - July 5, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 31 - April 3, 2010 are in parentheses.

The Daily Rundown: Interview with Newt Gingrich

Part 1

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Part 2

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Poll Watch: Gallup 2012 Republican Nomination Daily Tracking Survey

Gallup 2012 GOP Nomination Daily Tracking Poll

• Mitt Romney 27% [25%] (24%) {23%} [22%] (21%) {23%} [23%] (24%) {24%} [24%] (24%) {23%} [22%] (23%) {23%} [23%] (23%) {25%} [23%] (22%)
• Newt Gingrich 23% [25%] (25%) {26%} [26%] (27%) {25%} [25%] (26%) {28%} [28%] (29%) {31%} [31%] (33%) {33%} [35%] (37%) {34%} [36%] (37%)
• Ron Paul 11% [11%] (11%) {12%} [13%] (12%) {12%} [12%] (11%) {10%} [10%] (10%) {9%} [8%] (8%) {9%} [9%] (9%) {10%} [9%] (8%)
• Rick Perry 8% [8%] (8%) {8%} [8%] (7%) {8%} [8%] (7%) {6%} [6%] (5%) {6%} [7%] (6%) {6%} [6%] (6%) {5%} [6%] (7%)
• Michele Bachmann 5% [5%] (6%) {6%} [6%] (6%) {7%} [6%] (7%) {7%} [8%] (7%) {6%} [6%] (6%) {5%} [6%] (6%) {7%} [6%] (6%)  
• Rick Santorum 4% [4%] (3%) {3%} [3%] (4%) {4%} [4%] (4%) {4%} [4%] (4%) {4%} [4%] (3%) {2%} [3%] (2%) {2%} [3%] (3%)
• Jon Huntsman 2% [1%] (2%) {1%} [1%] (1%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (1%) {1%} [1%] (1%)

Survey of at least 1,000 registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents was conducted December 22-28, 2011. The margin of error is ± 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted December 21-27, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 20-26, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 19-23, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 18-22, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 17-21, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 15-20, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 14-19, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 13-18, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 12-17, 2011are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 11-16, 2011 are in Results from the poll conducted December 10-14, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 9-13, 2011are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 8-12, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 7-11, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 6-10, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conductedDecember 5-9, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 4-8, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 3-7, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 2-6, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 1-5, 2011 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: American Research Group Iowa 2012 Republican Caucus Survey

ARG Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Poll

• Mitt Romney 22% {20%} [17%] (20%) {21%} [18%] (17%)
• Newt Gingrich 17% {19%} [22%] (27%) {8%} [8%] (12%)
• Ron Paul 16% {21%} [17%] (16%) {12%} [14%] (3%)  
• Rick Santorum 11% {4%} [7%] (6%) {2%} [5%] (2%)
• Rick Perry 9% {9%} [13%] (5%) {14%} [2%] 
• Michele Bachmann 8% {8%} [7%] (6%) {15%} [21%] (9%)
• Jon Huntsman 6% {6%} [5%] (3%) {1%} [3%] (0%)
• Buddy Roemer 1% {1%} [0%] (0%) {1%} [0%] (0%)
• Other 1% {0%} [1%] (0%) {1%} [2%]
• Undecided 9% {12%} [12%] (11%) {15%} [10%] (8%)

Among Likely GOP Caucus-Goers Saying They Will Definitely Participate in the Caucus (81%)

• Mitt Romney 23% {20%}
• Newt Gingrich 19% {22%}
  
• Ron Paul 16% {17%}
• Rick Santorum 10% {5%}
• Rick Perry 8% {10%}
• Michele Bachmann 8% {8%}
• Jon Huntsman 5% {5%}
• Buddy Roemer 1% {1%}
• Other 1% {0%}
• Undecided 9% {12%}

Among Republicans (79%)

• Mitt Romney 23% {21%}
• Newt Gingrich 19% {20%}
• Rick Santorum 12% {5%}
• Ron Paul 12% {17%}
• Michele Bachmann 9% {10%}
• Rick Perry 8% {9%}
• Jon Huntsman 6% {5%}
• Buddy Roemer 1% {1%}
• Other 1% {0%}
• Undecided 9% {12%}

Among Independents (21%)

• Ron Paul 30% {33%}
• Mitt Romney 22% {20%}
• Newt Gingrich 12% {17%}
• Rick Perry 11% {9%}
• Michele Bachmann 6% {1%}
• Rick Santorum 6% {0%}
• Jon Huntsman 6% {8%} 
• Buddy Roemer 0% {1%} 
• Other 1% {0%}
• Undecided 9% {13%}

Among Tea Party Supporters (35%)

• Mitt Romney 26% {16%}
• Newt Gingrich 25% {29%}
• Ron Paul 16% {17%}
• Michele Bachmann 10% {11%}
• Rick Perry 9% {11%}
• Rick Santorum 7% {6%}
• Jon Huntsman 0% {0%}
• Buddy Roemer 0% {0%}
• Other 0% {0%}
• Undecided 7% {10%}

Among Non-Tea Party Republican Caucus-Goers (65%)

• Mitt Romney 20% {22%}
• Ron Paul 16% {22%}
• Newt Gingrich 14% {15%}
• Rick Santorum 13% {3%} 
• Jon Huntsman 9% {8%}
• Rick Perry 8% {8%}
• Michele Bachmann 7% {7%}
• Buddy Roemer 1% {2%}
• Other 2% {0%}
• Undecided 10% {13%}

Survey 600 of likely Republican caucus-goers (473 Republicans, 123 Independents, and 4 Democrats) was conducted December 26-28, 2011. The margin of error is ± 4 percentage points. Party ID: 79% {78%} Republican; 21% {22%} Independent. Preference by Likely to Vote: Definite 81% {83%}; Probably 19% {17%}.  Preference by Tea Party support: Supporter 35% {32%}; Not/Undecided 65% {42%}.  Results from the poll conducted December 19-22, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 8-11, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 17-23, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 22-27, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 5-11, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 12-19, 2011 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Iowa 2012 Republican Caucus Survey

Rasmussen Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Poll

• Mitt Romney 23% {25%} [23%] (19%) {21%} [17%] (21%)  
• Ron Paul 22% {20%} [18%] (10%) {10%} [14%] (16%) 
• Rick Santorum 16% {10%} [6%] (5%) {4%} [4%] 
• Newt Gingrich 13% {17%} [20%] (32%) {9%} [2%] (5%) 
• Rick Perry 13% {10%} [10%] (6%) {7%} [29%] (12%)
• Michele Bachmann 5% {6%} [9%] (6%) {8%} [18%] (22%)
• Jon Huntsman 3% {4%} [5%] (2%) {2%} [3%] (2%)

Survey of 750 likely Iowa Republican Caucus participants was conducted December 28, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted December 19, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 13, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 15, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 19, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 31, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 4, 2011 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Romney leads among Republican voters with 26% support, followed by Santorum at 19%. Gingrich and Paul each attract 15% support from Republican voters while Perry earns 12%.

Among non-Republicans who plan to participate, Paul dominates with 38% of the vote. Romney is a distant second among non-Republicans at 15% followed by Perry at 14%.

Forty-one percent (41%) of all caucus participants say they still could change their minds, and six percent (6%) more have no first preference, suggesting that much could still change in the next five days..

Among voters who could still change their minds, Romney remains the leading second choice with 20% support. Perry and Santorum are next with 17% support each, followed by Gingrich and Paul who both earn 12% of the vote. Bachmann is the second choice of nine percent (9%) of those caucus participants who could change their mind, while three percent (3%) would opt for Huntsman.

Sixty-one percent (61%) have a favorable opinion of Santorum, 60% say the same of Romney and 58% offer a positive view of Perry earn the highest favorable ratings from likely caucus-goers. Just 49% have a positive opinion of Paul and only 45% say the same of Gingrich.

At the other extreme, 27% have a Very Unfavorable opinion of Gingrich while 24% say the same of Paul. Those figures are roughly double the number with highly negative views of Romney and Santorum.

Romney also continues to be the GOP candidate that caucus-goers consider the strongest potential challenger against President Obama. He now outdistances Gingrich who is considered the second strongest contender by a two-to-one margin – 37% to 19%. Two weeks ago, Romney and Gingrich ran even on this question.

Paul and Bachmann are viewed by 25% as the two weakest potential challengers.

Mitt Romney 2012 Ad: "Freedom And Opportunity"

Jon Huntsman 2012 Ad: "Unelectable"

Poll Watch: Rasmussen 2012 Presidential Survey

Rasmussen 2012 Presidential Poll

• Mitt Romney 45% [41%] (43%) {45%} [40%] (38%) {42%} [41%] (44%) {42%} [41%] (44%) {41%} [43%] (39%) {38%} [43%] {40%} [44%] (44%) 
• Barack Obama 39% [44%] (42%) {42%} [42%] (44%) {43%} [42%] (42%) {43%} [43%] (42%) {44%} [40%] (43%) {46%} [42%] {45%} [42%] (44%)

Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted December 27-28, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted December 20-21, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 14-15, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 8-9, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 30 - December 1, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 21-22, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 9-10, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 1-2, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 24-25, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 16-17, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 8-9, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 28-29, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 18-19, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 10-11, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 25-26, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the polls conducted August 17-22, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the polls conducted between July 14-15, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 6-9, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 3-4, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 24, 2009 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Romney holds a 20-point lead among male voters but trails by six among female voters. The Republican posts a 45% to 29% lead among voters not affiliated with either of the major political parties.

Romney earns an overwhelming 75% of the vote from those Tea Party members, while the president leads 49% to 37% among those who are not part of the grass roots movement.

Poll Watch: InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research (R) Iowa 2012 Republican Caucus Survey

InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research (R) Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Poll

• Ron Paul 17.3% {23.9%} [16.5%] (13.3%) {11.4%} [8.7%] (9.6%) 
• Mitt Romney 17.2% {18.2%} [11.9%] (11.5%) {18.7%} [14.9%] (18.1%)
• Newt Gingrich 16.7% {12.9%} [27.1%] (28.1%) {14.5%} [11.7%] (12.1%)
• Rick Santorum 13.4% {2.9%} [6.8%] (3.3%) {3.4%}
• Michele Bachmann 11.8% {10.1%} [10.3%] (10.1%) {5.4%} [7.8%] (11.0%) 
• Rick Perry 10.5% {15.5%} [13.2%] (6.6%) {8.8%} [5.6%] (5.8%)
• Jon Huntsman 2.8% {3.8%} [3.6%] [1.9%] (0.9%)
• Someone else 3.0% {0.8%} [1.4%] (3.2%) {1.7%} [5.5%] (3.0%)
• No opinion 7.3% {11.9%} [9.2%] (14.1%) {12.8%} [14.2%] (13.1%)

Among Republicans

• Mitt Romney 20.7% {19.7%}
  
• Newt Gingrich 18.0% {14.9%}
• Rick Santorum 13.6% {3.0%}
• Michele Bachmann 12.8% {11.4%}
• Rick Perry 11.5% {15.0%}
• Ron Paul 10.9% {21.9%}
• Jon Huntsman 2.6% {1.4%}
• Someone else 1.3% {0.3%}
• No opinion 8.7% {12.4%}

Among Independents

• Ron Paul 32.9% {27.8%} 
• Rick Santorum 14.6% {2.3%} 
• Newt Gingrich 12.8% {8.4%}
• Mitt Romney 9.5% {16.6%}
• Rick Perry 9.1% {18.7%}
• Michele Bachmann 7.3% {7.5%}
• Jon Huntsman 3.0% {8.6%}
• Someone else 6.9% {0.6%}
• No opinion 3.7% {9.5%}

Survey of 429 likely Iowa GOP caucus-goers was conducted December 28, 2011.  Party ID: 69.5% Republican; 27.3% Independent; 3.3% Democrat.  Results from the poll conducted December 18, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 12, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 28, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 8, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 3, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 16, 2011 are in parentheses.

Rick Santorum on Morning Joe

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Gary Johnson on Leaving the GOP in Pursuit of Libertarian Party Nomination

Highlights of Chuck Todd Interview with Newt Gingrich

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TRANSCRIPT: CHUCK TODD INTERVIEWS NEWT GINGRICH

Mitt Romney: I Would Vote for Ron Paul

The Situation Room: Ann Romney on Coping with Multiple Sclerosis

Poll Watch: CNN/TIME/ORC Iowa 2012 Republican Caucus Survey

CNN/TIME/ORC Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Poll

• Mitt Romney 25% [20%] (24%)
• Ron Paul 22% [17%] (12%)
• Rick Santorum 16% [5%] (2%)
• Newt Gingrich 14% [33%] (10%) 
• Rick Perry 11% [9%] (10%)
• Michele Bachmann 9% [7%] (6%)
• Jon Huntsman 1% [1%] (1%)
• No opinion 2% [5%] (11%)

Would you say you will definitely support that candidate in 2012, or is it possible you would change your mind?

• Definitely support 54% [39%] (23%)
• Might change mind 43% [55%] (62%)

Survey of 452 likely Republican caucus participants was conducted December 21-24, 26-27, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted November 29 - December 6, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 20-25, 2011 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: CNN/TIME/ORC New Hampshire 2012 Republican Primary Survey

CNN/TIME/ORC New Hampshire 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 44% [35%] (40%)
• Ron Paul 17% [17%] (12%)
• Newt Gingrich 16% [26%] (5%) 
• Jon Huntsman 9% [8%] (6%)
• Rick Santorum 4% [2%] (1%)
• Michele Bachmann 3% [3%] (2%)
• Rick Perry 2% [2%] (4%)
• No opinion 4% [6%] (14%)

Would you say you will definitely support that candidate in 2012, or is it possible you would change your mind?

• Definitely support 51% [44%] (32%)
• Might change mind 45% [48%] (48%)

Survey of 543 likely Republican primary voters was conducted December 21-24, 26-27, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted November 29 - December 6, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 20-25, 2011 are in parentheses.

Newt Gingrich 2012 Ad: "Main Street"

Arlen Specter, Stand-Up Comic

Poll Watch: Gallup 2012 Republican Nomination Daily Tracking Survey

Gallup 2012 GOP Nomination Daily Tracking Poll

• Mitt Romney 25% (24%) {23%} [22%] (21%) {23%} [23%] (24%) {24%} [24%] (24%) {23%} [22%] (23%) {23%} [23%] (23%) {25%} [23%] (22%)
• Newt Gingrich 25% (25%) {26%} [26%] (27%) {25%} [25%] (26%) {28%} [28%] (29%) {31%} [31%] (33%) {33%} [35%] (37%) {34%} [36%] (37%)
• Ron Paul 11% (11%) {12%} [13%] (12%) {12%} [12%] (11%) {10%} [10%] (10%) {9%} [8%] (8%) {9%} [9%] (9%) {10%} [9%] (8%)
• Rick Perry 8% (8%) {8%} [8%] (7%) {8%} [8%] (7%) {6%} [6%] (5%) {6%} [7%] (6%) {6%} [6%] (6%) {5%} [6%] (7%)
• Michele Bachmann 5% (6%) {6%} [6%] (6%) {7%} [6%] (7%) {7%} [8%] (7%) {6%} [6%] (6%) {5%} [6%] (6%) {7%} [6%] (6%)  
• Rick Santorum 4% (3%) {3%} [3%] (4%) {4%} [4%] (4%) {4%} [4%] (4%) {4%} [4%] (3%) {2%} [3%] (2%) {2%} [3%] (3%)
• Jon Huntsman 1% (2%) {1%} [1%] (1%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (1%) {1%} [1%] (1%)

Survey of at least 1,000 registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents was conducted December 21-27, 2011. The margin of error is ± 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted December 20-26, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 19-23, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 18-22, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 17-21, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 15-20, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 14-19, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 13-18, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 12-17, 2011are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 11-16, 2011 are in Results from the poll conducted December 10-14, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 9-13, 2011are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 8-12, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 7-11, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 6-10, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conductedDecember 5-9, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 4-8, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 3-7, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 2-6, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 1-5, 2011 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Iowa 2012 Republican Caucus Survey

PPP (D) Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Poll

• Ron Paul 24% {23%} [21%] (18%) {10%} [16%] (11%) {16%}
• Mitt Romney 20% {20%} [16%] (16%) {22%} [19%] (26%) {28%}
• Newt Gingrich 13% {14%} [22%] (27%) {8%} [5%] (15%) {19%}
• Michele Bachmann 11% {10%} [11%] (13%) {8%} [18%] (14%) {15%}
• Rick Perry 10% {10%} [9%] (9%) {9%} [22%]
• Rick Santorum 10% {10%} [8%] (6%) {5%} [5%]
• Jon Huntsman 4% {4%} [5%] (4%) {1%} [3%] (1%)
• Buddy Roemer 2%
• Someone else/Not sure 5% {7%} [7%] (7%) {5%} [5%] (8%) {12%}

Among Republicans 

• Mitt Romney 22% {22%} [15%] (16%) 
• Ron Paul 20% {19%} [17%] (15%)
• Newt Gingrich 13% {17%} [25%] (29%) 
• Rick Perry 12% {11%} [10%] (10%)
• Rick Santorum 11% {10%} [8%] (7%)
• Michele Bachmann 10% {10%} [12%] (13%)
• Jon Huntsman 4% {2%} [3%] (3%)
• Buddy Roemer 1%
• Someone else/Not sure 7% {7%} [8%] (6%)

Among Independents

• Ron Paul 46% {34%} [35%] (34%) 
• Michele Bachmann 13% {10%} [8%] (7%) 
• Mitt Romney 11% {13%} [15%] (11%)  
• Rick Santorum 9% {9%} [6%] (1%)
• Newt Gingrich 8% {6%} [12%] (21%)  
• Jon Huntsman 5% {11%} [13%] (7%)
• Rick Perry 4% {7%} [6%] (7%)
• Buddy Roemer 3%
• Someone else/Not sure 2% {6%} [3%] (9%)

Regularly Watch Fox News

• Mitt Romney 27%
• Newt Gingrich 16%
• Michele Bachmann 15%
• Ron Paul 12%
• Rick Santorum 11%
• Rick Perry 10%
• Jon Huntsman 2%
• Buddy Roemer 2%
• Someone else/Not sure 6%

Do NOT Regularly Watch Fox News

• Ron Paul 38% 
• Mitt Romney 13%
• Rick Santorum 10%
• Newt Gingrich 9%
• Rick Perry 9%
• Michele Bachmann 7%
• Jon Huntsman 6%
• Buddy Roemer 2%
• Someone else/Not sure 5%

Evangelicals

• Ron Paul 21% 
• Mitt Romney 16%
• Michele Bachmann 15% 
• Rick Santorum 15%
• Newt Gingrich 14%
• Rick Perry 12%
• Jon Huntsman 1%
• Buddy Roemer 0%
• Someone else/Not sure 6%

Non-Evangelicals

• Ron Paul 27%
• Mitt Romney 24%
• Newt Gingrich 11%
• Michele Bachmann 8%
• Rick Perry 8%
• Rick Santorum 7%
• Jon Huntsman 7%
• Buddy Roemer 4%
• Someone else/Not sure 5%

Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?

• Strongly committed to that candidate 72% {63%} [60%] (55%)
• Might end up supporting someone else 28% {37%} [40%] (45%)

Among Those Strongly Committed to That Candidate

• Ron Paul 28% {29%} [29%] (22%)
  
• Mitt Romney 21% {23%} [18%] (20%)
• Michele Bachmann 14% {9%} [11%] (15%)
• Newt Gingrich 12% {14%} [21%] (25%)
• Rick Santorum 10% {9%} [5%] (5%)
• Rick Perry 9% {9%} [9%] (7%)
• Jon Huntsman 5% {4%} [4%] (5%)
• Buddy Roemer 1% 

Among Those Who Might End Up Supporting Someone Else

• Mitt Romney 22% {19%} [14%] (13%)
  
• Ron Paul 21% {18%} [13%] (16%)
• Newt Gingrich 17% {18%} [28%] (32%)
• Rick Santorum 14% {12%} [13%] (7%)
• Rick Perry 13% {14%} [12%] (14%)
• Michele Bachmann 7% {13%} [13%] (14%)
  
• Buddy Roemer 4% 
• Jon Huntsman 3% {4%} [6%] (4%)

Second Choice 

• Rick Santorum 14% {9%} [8%] (9%) {5%}
• Newt Gingrich 12% {13%} [14%] (17%) {17%}
• Michele Bachmann 12% {15%} [11%] (10%) {11%}
• Rick Perry 11% {14%} [10%] (11%) {12%}
• Mitt Romney 10% {12%} [13%] (13%) {11%}
• Ron Paul 9% {9%} [12%] (10%) {9%}
• Jon Huntsman 7% {7%} [7%] (5%) {3%}
• Someone else/Not sure 25% {18%} [25%] (22%) {15%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rick Santorum 56% {52%} [49%] (51%) {46%} [44%] (29%) {27%} [28%] / 29% {32%} [33%] (28%) {17%} [22%] (18%) {11%} [9%] {+27%}
• Michele Bachmann 53% {52%} [55%] (56%) {44%} [47%] (53%) {49%} / 37% {34%} [37%] (35%) {38%} [35%] (16%) {13%} {+16%}
• Ron Paul 53% {54%} [61%] (52%) {37%} [53%] (42%) {55%} [47%] / 40% {38%} [31%] (38%) {46%} [29%] (29%) {17%} [23%] {+13%}
• Rick Perry 48% {48%} [43%] (44%) {38%} [56%] (21%) / 40% {40%} [47%] (46%) {41%} [24%] (16%) {+8%}
• Mitt Romney 44% {49%} [48%] (49%) {51%} [45%] (51%) {55%} [57%] / 47% {40%} [44%] (45%) {36%} [38%] (34%) {25%} [26%] {-3%}
• Jon Huntsman 31% {32%} [28%] (30%) {18%} [13%] (7%) {5%} / 43% {38%} [43%] (45%) {28%} [40%] (23%) {8%} {-12%}
• Newt Gingrich 37% {46%} [52%] (62%) {56%} [42%] (39%) {47%} [53%] / 54% {47%} [40%] (31%) {32%} [44%] (41%) {26%} [27%] {-17%}

Which of the Republican candidates do you think has the best chance of defeating Barack Obama?

• Mitt Romney 25% {25%} [21%] (23%)
• Ron Paul 14% {16%} [14%] (9%)
• Newt Gingrich 13% {17%} [30%] (33%)
• Michele Bachmann 8% {7%} [5%] (7%)
• Rick Perry 8% {6%} [7%] (7%)
• Rick Santorum 5% {3%} [3%] (2%)
• Jon Huntsman 4% {3%} [2%] (3%)
• Buddy Roemer 1%
• Someone else/Not sure 23% {20%} [16%] (14%)

Who do you think is going to win the Iowa caucuses?

• Ron Paul 29% {20%}
• Mitt Romney 15% {19%}
• Newt Gingrich 8% {20%}
• Michele Bachmann 7% {6%}
• Rick Santorum 5% {2%}
• Rick Perry 4% {3%}
• Jon Huntsman 1% {2%}
• Buddy Roemer 1%
• Someone else/Not sure 30% {27%}

Who do you think has run the strongest campaign in Iowa?

• Ron Paul 26% {22%}
• Michele Bachmann 18% {19%}
• Rick Santorum 10% {8%}
• Rick Perry 7% {7%}
• Newt Gingrich 5% {8%}
• Mitt Romney 5% {5%}
• Jon Huntsman 1% {1%}
• Buddy Roemer 1%
• Someone else/Not sure 28% {28%}

Do you think that Ron Paul has strong principles, or not?

• He does 68% {73%}
• He does not 14% {10%}

Do you think that Mitt Romney has strong principles, or not?

• He does 42% {50%}
• He does not 37% {31%}

Do you think that Newt Gingrich has strong principles, or not?

• He does 32% {36%}
• He does not 45% {43%}

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 26% {26%} [27%] (32%) {29%} [33%] (31%) {28%}
• No 64% {61%} [61%] (58%) {52%} [51%] (48%) {48%}

What is more important to you when deciding who to vote for: a candidate’s ability to beat Barack Obama in the general election, or their positions on the issues?

• A candidate's ability to beat Obama 30% {32%} [32%] (34%)
• Their issue positions 58% {56%} [56%] (57%)

Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?

• Are 47%
• Are not 53%

Do you regularly watch Fox News, or not?

• Do 52%
• Do not 48%

Survey of 565 likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers was conducted December 26-27, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.  Party ID: 76% {75%} [78%] (80%) Republican; 16% {19%} [17%] (14%) Independent/Other; 8% {5%} [4%] (6%) Democrat.  Political ideology: 37% {36%} [42%] (40%) {36%} [38%] (41%) {44%} Very conservative; 33% {36%} [35%] (37%) {36%} [34%] (37%) {33%} Somewhat conservative; 21% {19%} [17%] (15%) {21%} [21%] (14%) {17%} Moderate; 5% {6%} [3%] (5%) {4%} [3%] (6%) {4%} Somewhat liberal; 4% {3%} [4%] (3%) {3%} [3%] (2%) {2%} Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted December 16-18, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 11-13, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 3-5, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 7-10, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 19-21, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 27-30, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 15-17, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 7-9, 2011are in square brackets.