Monday, November 14, 2011

Poll Watch: POLITICO/George Washington University 2012 Battleground Poll

POLITICO/George Washington University 2012 Battleground Poll

REPUBLICAN NOMINATION
  • Herman Cain 27% (4%)
  • Mitt Romney 25% (17%)
  • Newt Gingrich 14% (5%)
  • Rick Perry 14% (36%)
  • Ron Paul 5% (10%)
  • Michele Bachmann 2% (10%)
  • Rick Santorum 2% (5%)
  • Jon Huntsman 0% (1%)
  • Other 1% (1%)
  • Unsure/Refused 9% (11%)
Second Choice
  • Newt Gingrich 20% (5%)
  • Mitt Romney 20% (17%)
  • Herman Cain 16% (4%)
  • Rick Perry 13% (36%)
  • Ron Paul 8% (10%)
  • Michele Bachmann 6% (10%)
  • Rick Santorum 4% (5%)
  • Jon Huntsman 3% (1%)
  • Other 0% (1%)
  • Unsure/Refused 9% (11%)
Regardless of who you plan to vote for, who do you believe is going to win the Republican nomination for President?
  • Mitt Romney 48%
  • Herman Cain 22% 
  • Rick Perry 6% 
  • Newt Gingrich 3%
  • Michele Bachmann 0%
  • Ron Paul 0%
  • Jon Huntsman 0%
  • Rick Santorum 0%
  • Unsure/Refused 21%
GENERAL ELECTION
  • Barack Obama 49%
  • Mitt Romney 43%
  • Barack Obama 49%
  • Herman Cain 40%
How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President? Do you approve or disapprove of the job he is doing?
  • Strongly approve 27%
  • Approve 17%
  • Disapprove 10%
  • Strongly disapprove 41%
Whether you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President, what is your impression of Barack Obama as a person? Do you approve or disapprove of him?
  • Strongly approve 58%
  • Approve 16%
  • Disapprove 3%
  • Strongly disapprove 17%
I am going to read you several issues. For each one, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the job that President Obama is doing on this issue.

The Economy
  • Strongly approve 15%
  • Somewhat approve 20%
  • Somewhat disapprove 15%
  • Strongly disapprove 47%
Foreign Policy
  • Strongly approve 32%
  • Somewhat approve 24%
  • Somewhat disapprove 11%
  • Strongly disapprove 28%
Dealing with Congress
  • Strongly approve 16%
  • Somewhat approve 22%
  • Somewhat disapprove 19%
  • Strongly disapprove 38%
The Federal Budget and Spending
  • Strongly approve 16%
  • Somewhat approve 17%
  • Somewhat disapprove 15%
  • Strongly disapprove 49%
Jobs
  • Strongly approve 18%
  • Somewhat approve 22%
  • Somewhat disapprove 15%
  • Strongly disapprove 43%
Survey of 1,000 likely voters, including a subsample of 436 likely GOP primary voters, was conducted November 6-9, 2011 by The Tarrance Group (R) and Lake Research Partners (D). The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points.  Click here to view crosstabs.  Results from the poll conducted August 28 - September 1, 2011 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:
Among likely Republican voters surveyed Sunday, Nov. 6, Cain led the field with 40 percent. On Monday, he was third with 22 percent. By Wednesday, just 19 percent of those surveyed said they supported Cain for the nomination. 
Cain must grapple with a dearth of support from women. Among Republican men, Cain led with 32 percent. Among women, however, he won 21 percent support. 
President Barack Obama led Cain 49 percent to 40 percent in a head-to-head matchup. Among women, the president trounced the former National Restaurant Association CEO by an 18-point margin, 53 to 35 percent.

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