Poll Watch: PPP (D) South Carolina 2012 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) South Carolina 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Newt Gingrich 37% [35%] (34%) {24%} [23%] (8%) {15%}
• Mitt Romney 28% [29%] (28%) {29%} [30%] (16%) {30%}
• Rick Santorum 16% [15%] (14%) {14%} [19%] (4%) 
• Ron Paul 14% [15%] (15%) {15%} [9%] (5%) {10%}
• Someone else/Not sure 5% [5%] (2%) {6%} [9%] (7%) {11%}

Among Men

• Newt Gingrich 39% [39%] (38%)
• Mitt Romney 26% [27%] (26%)
• Ron Paul 15% [16%] (15%)
• Rick Santorum 15% [14%] (10%)
• Someone else/Not sure 4% [4%] (2%)

Among Women

• Newt Gingrich 34% [31%] (29%)
• Mitt Romney 29% [32%] (30%)
• Rick Santorum 17% [17%] (18%)
• Ron Paul 13% [14%] (14%)
• Someone else/Not sure 7% [6%] (2%)

Very Conservative

• Newt Gingrich 44% [41%] (39%)
  
• Rick Santorum 21% [22%] (17%) 
• Mitt Romney 20% [21%] (23%)
  
• Ron Paul 10% [10%] (14%)
  
• Someone else/Not sure 5% [5%] (2%)

Somewhat Conservative

• Newt Gingrich 37% [36%] (34%)
  
• Mitt Romney 32% [34%] (33%)
• Rick Santorum 14% [14%] (13%) 
  
• Ron Paul 13% [14%] (12%)
  
• Someone else/Not sure 4% [2%] (1%)

Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?

• Strongly committed to that candidate 78% [77%] (80%) {65%} [59%]
• Might end up supporting someone else 22% [23%] (20%) {35%} [41%]

Among Those Strongly Committed to Candidate

• Newt Gingrich 40% [39%] (37%)
• Mitt Romney 31% [32%] (30%)
• Rick Santorum 15% [14%] (14%)
• Ron Paul 14% [15%] (14%)

Second Choice

• Rick Santorum 22% [20%] (16%) {17%} [21%]
• Newt Gingrich 18% [17%] (17%) {20%} [14%]
• Mitt Romney 17% [16%] (18%) {17%} [16%]
• Ron Paul 11% [10%] (11%) {9%} [7%]
• Someone else/Not sure 32% [37%] (22%) {16%} [26%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rick Santorum 55% [54%] (53%) {53%} [63%] (34%) {31%} [25%] / 35% [35%] (41%) {30%} [21%] (19%) {16%} [7%] {+20%} 
• Newt Gingrich 54% [53%] (54%) {51%} [49%] (42%) {37%} [54%] / 37% [38%] (38%) {37%} [39%] (40%) {44%} [25%] {+17%}
• Mitt Romney 51% [51%] (54%) {57%} [60%] (52%) {56%} [60%] / 42% [40%] (41%) {33%} [29%] (32%) {27%} [22%] {+9%}
• Ron Paul 38% [39%] (40%) {38%} [33%] (35%) {38%} [47%] / 53% [51%] (49%) {52%} [54%] (35%) {31%} [19%] {-15%}

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 25% [25%] (28%) {30%} [31%]
• No 65% [66%] (65%) {57%} [57%]

Among Tea Party Members

• Newt Gingrich 52% [46%] (50%)
• Mitt Romney 18% [21%] (18%)
• Rick Santorum 16% [17%] (8%)
• Ron Paul 12% [14%] (18%)
• Someone else/Not sure 2% [1%] (0%)

Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?

• Are 56% [56%] (52%) {56%} [57%]
• Are not 44% [44%] (48%) {44%} [43%]

Among Evangelical Christians

• Newt Gingrich 41% [40%] (37%)
• Mitt Romney 21% [22%] (20%)
• Rick Santorum 21% [19%] (17%)
• Ron Paul 12% [14%] (18%)
• Someone else/Not sure 5% [6%] (1%)

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the media?

• Favorable 14%
• Unfavorable 77%

Did you watch the debate last night, or not? (Asked only of Friday respondents)

• Watched 60%
• Did not 40%

Watched Thursday Night's Debate

• Newt Gingrich 46%
• Mitt Romney 23%
• Ron Paul 14%
• Rick Santorum 13%

Are you familiar with accusations by Newt Gingrich’s ex-wife that he wanted to have an ‘open marriage,’ or not? (Asked only of Friday respondents)

• Familiar 86%
• Not familiar 14%

(Among those familiar) Do the accusations give you major concerns about Newt Gingrich, some concerns, or do they not concern you at all? (Asked only of Friday respondents)

• Major concerns 21%
• Some concerns 26%
• No concerns 51%

(Among those familiar) Do you think the accusations against Newt Gingrich by his ex-wife are true, or not? (Asked only of Friday respondents)

• True 31%
• Not true 35%
• Not sure 34%

Survey of 1,540 likely South Carolina Republican primary voters was conducted January 18-20, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 2.5 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 75% [76%] (77%) {80%} [82%] (80%) {78%} [81%] Republican; 21% [20%] (16%) {17%} [14%] (18%) {19%} [18%] Independent/Other; 4% [4%] (7%) {3%} [3%] (1%) {3%} [0%] Democrat. Political ideology: 41% [41%] (43%) {40%} [41%] (40%) {41%} Very conservative; 35% [36%] (35%) {37%} [38%] (39%) {36%} Somewhat conservative; 18% [17%] (15%) {18%} [15%] (16%) {17%} Moderate; 4% [4%] (5%) {2%} [4%] (4%) {3%} Somewhat liberal; 3% [2%] (2%) {2%} [3%] (1%) {3%} Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted January 18-19, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 18, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 11-13, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 5-7, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 25-28, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 2-5, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 28-30, 2011 are in square brackets.