Poll Watch: American Research Group 2012 Presidential Survey

ARG 2012 Presidential Poll

If the general election were being held today between Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, and Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans, for whom would you vote - Obama and Biden or Romney and Ryan?

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 49% (46%)
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 47% (49%)
• Other/Undecided 4% (5%)

Among Democrats

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 90% (85%)
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 6% (11%)

Among Republicans

• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 92% (92%)
• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 5% (5%)

Among Independents

• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 50% (49%)
• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 43% (44%)

Among Men

• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 51% (54%)
• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 45% (41%)

Among Women

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 52% (51%)
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 43% (45%)

Age 18-49

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 50% (50%)
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 45% (46%)

Age 50+

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 48% (43%)
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 48% (52%)

Among Whites

• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 55% (57%)
• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 41% (39%)

Among Blacks

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 92% (89%)
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 5% (5%)

Survey of 761 likely voters was conducted September 17-20, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points. Party ID: 40% (38%) Democrat; 34% (34%) Republican; 26% (28%) Independent. Gender: 48% (48%) Men; 52% (52%) Women.  Race: 77% (76%) White; 12% (12%) Black. Age: 18-49: 49% (49%); 50 and older: 51% (51%). Results from the poll conducted September 4-6, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Obama and Romney are tied at 48% each among likely voters interviewed on a landline (81% of likely voters). Obama leads Romney 53% to 41% among likely voters interviewed on a cell phone (19% of likely voters).

A total of 47% of likely voters say they would never vote for Obama in the general election and 44% of likely voters say they would never vote for Romney in the general election.