Poll Watch: UMass Lowell/Boston Herald Massachusetts 2012 Senatorial Survey

UMass Lowell/Boston Herald Massachusetts 2012 Senate Poll

Likely Voters

• Scott Brown (R) 49%
• Elizabeth Warren (D) 45%

Among Independents

• Scott Brown (R) 58% [53%]
• Elizabeth Warren (D) 35% [37%]

Among Men

• Scott Brown (R) 56%
• Elizabeth Warren (D) 36%

Among Women

• Elizabeth Warren (D) 51% [51%]
• Scott Brown (R) 44% [35%]

Among Obama Voters

• Elizabeth Warren (D) 71%
• Scott Brown (R) 22%

Among Romney Voters

• Scott Brown (R) 93%
• Elizabeth Warren (D) 6%

Registered Voters

• Scott Brown (R) 50% [42%] (41%)
• Elizabeth Warren (D) 44% [49%] (38%) 

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Scott Brown 57% [48%] (52%) / 29% [35%] (29%) {+28%}
• Elizabeth Warren 48% [34%] (30%) / 34% [27%] (18%) {+14%}

Among Independents

• Scott Brown 66% [59%] (59%) / 22% [24%] (24%) {+44%}
• Elizabeth Warren 45% [28%] (24%) / 40% [31%] (19%) {+5%}

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Scott Brown is handling his job as U.S. Senator?

• Approve 58% [45%] (53%)
• Disapprove 26% [36%] (29%)

Among Independents

• Approve 65% [55%] (60%)
• Disapprove 19% [27%] (22%)

In general, do you think Scott Brown’s political views are too conservative, too liberal or about right?

• Too liberal 6% [7%] (11%)
• Too conservative 24% [29%] (29%)
• About right 56% [45%] (49%)

In general, do you think Elizabeth Warren’s political views are too conservative, too liberal or about right?

• Too liberal 30% [25%]
• Too conservative 3% [2%]
• About right 49% [40%]

Do you think that as U.S. Senator, Scott Brown has compromised with Democrats too much, not enough or about the right amount?

• Too much 4% (8%)
• Not enough 27% (32%)
• About the right amount 55% (50%)

Regardless of how you may vote for U.S. Senate next year, who do you think would do a better job of looking out for the economic interests of middle class families?

• Elizabeth Warren (D) 46% (43%)
• Scott Brown (R) 44% (33%)

On social issues such as gay marriage and abortion, in general would you describe your views as:

• Liberal 48%
• Moderate 28%
• Conservative 17%

On fiscal issues such as taxes and spending, in general would you describe your views as:

• Liberal 20%
• Moderate 45%
• Conservative 33%

Survey of 524 registered voters, including a subsample of 497 likely voters, was conducted September 13-17, 2012 by Princeton Survey Research Associates. The margin of error is +/- 5.3 percentage points among registered voters; +/- 5.5 percentage points among likely voters.  Party ID (among likely voters) 28% Democrat; 11% Republican; 56% Independent.  Party ID (among registered voters) 28% Democrat; 12% Republican; 56% Independent.  Results from the poll conducted December 1-6, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 22-28, 2011 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers: 

The GOP incumbent holds a 20-point lead among male voters, a huge advantage heading down the stretch. Warren, however, has not built up a similar advantage among female voters, holding just a seven-point lead over Brown. In the Dec. 2011 poll, Warren held an 18-point lead among women.