Poll Watch: Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. Iowa 2012 Presidential Survey

Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. Iowa 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama 47% [49%] (44%)
• Mitt Romney 42% [45%] (46%)
• Someone else 4% [4%]
• Not sure 2% [2%] 

Regardless of which candidate you support, would Barack Obama or Mitt Romney do the best job of:

Fixing the economy

• Barack Obama 45% [47%]
• Mitt Romney 44% [46%]

Reducing the federal budget deficit

• Mitt Romney 44% [51%] 
• Barack Obama 41% [40%]

Handling relations with other countries

• Barack Obama 51% [52%]
• Mitt Romney 38% [41%]

Regardless of which candidate you support, do you think Mitt Romney or Barack Obama:
 
Cares the most about people like you

• Barack Obama 52% [53%]
• Mitt Romney 37% [38%]

Is the most honest

• Barack Obama 48% [48%]
• Mitt Romney 38% [37%]

Is a stronger leader

• Barack Obama 50% [50%]
• Mitt Romney 42% [43%]

Would be more likely to bring Republicans and Democrats together

• Mitt Romney 43% [39%] 
• Barack Obama 37% [38%]

Is the most trustworthy

• Barack Obama 49%
• Mitt Romney 39%

Survey of 800 likely voters was conducted October 30 - November 2, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 23-26, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 12-15, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers: 

The poll shows that 42 percent of likely voters have already cast ballots, including more than half of all seniors who plan to participate in this election. That’s a striking difference from four years ago, when the Iowa Poll showed only 28 percent had mailed in an absentee ballot or voted at a local elections office or satellite station at this point.

Obama is up 22 points among early voters. Among those planning to vote on Tuesday, Romney wins by 8 points. The poll shows early voting has been heaviest in the 2nd and 3rd congressional districts, which include Des Moines, Iowa City, Davenport and Council Bluffs, and lighter in steadfastly Republican northwest Iowa.

Obama’s supporters are slightly more likely than Romney supporters to describe their mood as inspired and optimistic (76 percent to 62 percent of Romney supporters).

Seven percent say they could still change their minds. Among that small group, a plurality of 48 percent describe themselves as angry and pessimistic, double the overall average.

A majority of Iowa voters (53 percent) say the outcome of the election will affect them a lot. It’s higher with women (59 percent) than men (47 percent), and higher with tea party supporters (59 percent) and union households (70 percent).

Both candidates have locked in their support: 95 percent for Obama and 96 percent for Romney say their minds are made up.

Obama has a more limited chance of attracting crossover voters like he did four years ago: 6 percent of Republicans are with Obama, and 3 percent of Democrats are voting for Romney. Independents tilt to Romney, 41 percent to 37 percent.

President Barack Obama does best with union households (31 points better than Mitt Romney), unmarried voters (up 28 points), younger voters (up 17), those with no more than a high school education (up 16), seniors (up 12), in the 1st Congressional District in eastern and southeastern Iowa (up 12) and with women (up 11 points).

Obama, a Democrat, also does well with Iowans who did not participate in the 2010 election, winning 53 percent to 31 percent among this group.

Romney, a Republican, does best with evangelicals (26 points better than Obama), voters in Iowa’s 4th Congressional District in northwest Iowa (up 19 points), married moms (up 18), affluent voters (up 17), married voters (up 10), middle-age voters (up 9), people with minor children (up 5), and with men (up 3).